1. Changing Demographics in Swan Valley, Montana
By Jedd Sankar-Gorton
Department of Geography

2. Terminology Rural restructuring Amenity Migration
“a change in the rural economy, the government or political responsibility for community services and resources. In Canada, and elsewhere, technological advancements, globalization, market regulations and changing demographics are undermining the social and economic viability of rural community life” (Oncescu 2015, 83).
Amenity Migration
“the movement of people based on the draw of natural and/or cultural amenities, can be thought of as both driver and implication of this transition, resulting in significant changes in ownership, use, and governance of rural lands, as well as in the composition and socioeconomic dynamics of rural communities” (Gosnell and Abrams 2009, 1).

3. Main Research Questions
The commonly held belief is that the Swan Valley is experiencing rural restructuring trends similar to many rural American West communities. Will quantitative analysis of Census data reveal this to be true?
If so, can we specifically identify Amenity Migration trends in the data?

4. Methods
Data was accessed using the American Factfinder database on Census.gov.
Both Decennial Census and American Communities Survey data was used depending on availability and topic.
Microsoft Excel and ArcGIS were used to process and visualize data.
Block and Block Group data were used depending on availability.

5. Background Swan Valley is a small community in Missoula County.
Surrounded by mountains, two wilderness areas, and countless bodies of water.
About 90% public land.
Timber was primary industry from western settlement until the 1990s.
Economy has faltered and been forced to attempt to shift to services and amenities.
Historic community is fading but there is some hope.

6. Population Density Population spread between 1990 and 2000.
2010
Population spread between 1990 and 2000.
Density increased between 2000 and 2010.
Both of these trends are related to increased home building on newly subdivided land.

7. Median Age Median age increased between 2000 and 2010.
This shows that few people are being born into the population and that new people arriving are in the older age brackets.

8. Employment
For men we see a significant drop in construction and extraction jobs with a general change in overall available jobs.
For women we see a general jump in office support, management, and cleaning and maintenance work.
Female job numbers over time
Male job numbers over time

9. Housing
Value of houses in the Swan Valley has skyrocketed with the number of houses valued at or above $200,000 more than doubling.
More than a quarter of houses in the area were built between 1990 and 2011.
Year house built
Housing value over time

10. Conclusions
The population of Swan Valley is increasing in number, density and age.
More of the land is being developed.
Main job-providing industries are shifting, though overall employment is steady.
Housing values are increasing rapidly while age of homes is decreasing.

11. Sources and Acknowledgements
Image Sources: -Jedd Sankar-Gorton -
Data Sources: -Figs 1 and Census State, Reservation, County, Tract, Block Group, Block and Place. Release Date: August 30, Accessed 11/1/16
-Figs 2 and Census State, Reservation, County, Tract, Block Group, Block and Place. Release Date: June 18, Accessed 11/1/16
-Figs 5 and 6 -U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Sex By Occupation For the Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over, Accessed 11/3/16
-Figs 5 and 6 -U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Summary File 3, Sex By Occupation For the Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over, Accessed 11/3/16
-Fig 7 -U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Employment Status For the Population 16 Years and Over, Accessed 11/9/16
-Fig 7 -U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Summary File 3, Sex By Employment Status For the Population 16 Years and Over, Accessed 11/9/16
-Fig 8 -U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Summary File 3, Value For All Owner-Occupied Housing Units, Accessed 11/8/16
-Fig 9 -U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Summary File 3, Profile of Selected Housing Characteristics: 2000, Accessed 11/5/16
Literature Sources: -Oncescu, Jacquelyn “Rural restructuring and its impact on community recreation opportunities.” Annals of Leisure Research, 18:1, , DOI: /
-Gosnell, Hannah and Jesse Adams "Amenity Migration: Diverse Conceptualizations of Drivers, Socioeconomic Dimensions, and Emerging Challenges." Geojournal 76 (4): 303.
Acknowledgements: Thanks to Dr. Christiane von Reichert and Dr. Sarah Halvorson for the new ideas and support.