1. Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)
Assessment, research and development
Bill Merryfield
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)
with contributions from colleagues at CCCma and CMC
Operations at GPC Montreal: talk by Bertrand Denis
WGSIP-16/ET-OPSLS, 10 March 2014

2. Marine Environmental Observation Prediction
Topics discussed
Evaluation of land surface initial conditions + skill
- soil moisture
- snow
Current ENSO outlook
Annual forecasts (12-month means)
Experimental regional downscaling
CanSIPS Explorer
Research supported by
Marine Environmental Observation Prediction
and Response Network

3. Evidence CanSIPS soil moisture initialization is somewhat realistic
21 Jan 2014
1 Feb 2014
Probabilistic soil moisture forecast Feb 2014 lead 0
9 Feb 2014
Evidence CanSIPS soil moisture initialization is somewhat realistic
28 Feb 2014
25 Feb 2014

4. CanSIPS soil moisture forecasts & skill
JJA 2011 (lead 0) 
3-category probabilistic forecast (left)
ERA-interim verification
(right) 
Anomaly correlation*
JJA (lead 0)
Soil moisture (left) 
2m temperature (right)  SM
T2m
*ERA-interim verification

5. Evidence CanSIPS snow initialization is somewhat realistic
Example: BERMS Old Jack Pine Site (Saskatchewan, Canada)
CanCM3 assimilation runs
CanCM4 assimilation runs
climatology vs in situ obs

6. CanSIPS snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts & skill
Verification
JFM 2011 (lead 0) 
3-category probabilistic forecast (left)
MERRA verification
(right) 
Anomaly correlation
JFM (lead 0) 
SWE (left)
2m temperature (right) 
Higher than for T2m
in snowy regions!
SWE
T2m

7. Seasonal Nino3.4 anomaly correlation
Current ENSO outlook
Seasonal SST anomalies
MAM 2014
Seasonal Nino3.4 anomalies
JJA 2014
SON 2014
Seasonal Nino3.4 anomaly correlation
DJF

8. Annual T2m forecasts CanSIPS Probabilistic forecast
Verification ( percentile) + ACC
2011
forecast pdf
climatological pdf
2012
Global mean forecast vs climatological PDF
2013
2014
ACC skill

9. Experimental downscaling of CanSIPS forecasts
CanRCM4 = Canadian Regional Climate Model version 4
CORDEX North America grid – 0.22 ~ 25 km resolution
RCM runs will be initialized from downscaled assimilation runs
Atmospheric scales > T21 spectrally nudged in interior domain
Global model output files = RCM input  global, downscaled forecasts run concurrently
Soil moisture probabilistic forecast on CanSIPS global grid
Surface temperature on CanRCM4 0.22 CORDEX North America grid

10. CanSIPS Explorer Developed and maintained at CCCma by Slava Kharin
Displays all monthly, seasonal hind/forecasts + verifications 1979-present + skills
Calibrated probabilistic forecasts (maps & local PDFs) for many variables, regions, indices
Monthly to 12 mon
“ “ sf2_daily
username: cccmasf
password: seasforum
Daily N-day, monthly & seasonal forecasts