1. The impacts of predation on elk populations in the East Kootenay.
Bob Jamieson
Jan. 2016

2. Recent Academic Interest
Dr. Mark Hubblewhite- Missoula
Dr. Evelyn Merrill – U. of Alberta
Dr. Bruce Johnson - Starkey
Dr. Paul Luckas –Missoula
Dr. Scott Creel –Bozeman
Dr. Matt Kaufmann – Wyoming
Several graduate students working with these researchers.

3. We now have a pretty good handle on the actual mechanism by which predators impact their prey populations in the Rockies.
It is not simple.

7. Christianson and Creel 2014

9. What is the mechanism that resulted in reduced elk numbers and recruitment with the arrival of wolves?

10. Creel, Christianson and Winnie 2011.
Reversal of previous data (White) on pregnancy rates in elk populations exposed to wolf predation.
Critical review of the data.

11. Creel, Christianson and Winnie 2011.
Elk pregnancy rates in Central Yellowstone
% (Peek, 1967, Greer 1965)
% (Garrott 2009)
% (Garrott 2009)
Difference 23% decline in recent years
41% from 1960’s.

12. Creel, Christianson and Winnie 2011.
Elk pregnancy rates in Gallatin herd, Montana.
% (Greer 1965/Peek 1967)
2001/ % (small sample)
Difference 25%

13. Creel, Christianson and Winnie 2011.
Elk pregnancy rates in the Clark Fork herd, Wyoming.
Resident 89% (not exposed to wolves)
Migratory 68%
Difference 21% (small sample size)

14. Creel, Christianson and Winnie 2011.
Middleton et al argues that this effect is the result of drought on the summer ranges of the migratory herd.
Data from Northern herd on pregnancy?

15. Creel, Christianson and Winnie 2011.
Elk pregnancy rates in the Lochsa/North Fork, Idaho (Zager et al. 2005).
Low predation 73%
High predation 46%
Difference 27%
Pre-experiment – 76% and 80%.

16. Creel, Christianson and Winnie 2011.
Conclusions.
23%+ decline in pregnancy rates, following wolf re-introduction in four separate herds.
WHY?
Disease? Low % incidence of brucellosis (<5%) in elk.

17. What about the East Kootenay?

19. Finlay Benches-Migratory herd
This famous elk herd once provided some of the best backcountry elk hunting in Canada.
This herd has declined from 1200 to 200.
15 cows were seen by the outfitters in the fall of 2014, 25 in 2015.
40 calves lost by McKersie family in 2013, 8 in 2014, 20 in 2015.

20. Finlay Benches-Migratory herd
Elk calf recruitment has been below 20/100 (maintenance) for years.
Herd is now under 200 head.
Recruitment in was 14/100 (n-117).

22. Non-resident harvest, 4-26

23. WMA 426- Findlay-Dutch

24. Winter ranges 1985

25. Herds lost since 1985

26. Herd numbers Beaverfoot Valley – No elk for several years.
Upper Kootenay Valley – 50 head early in the winter, down to head in March 2015, in the mildest winter in 20 years.
Flathead Valley – no elk wintering in Canada, very few in the summer. Polebridge herd is now down to 200 head.

27. WMA 435-Beaverfoot

28. WMA 425- Upper Kootenay

29. WMA 420 –St. Marys/Skook

30. Flathead
Data on all harvest in unit that has no winter range, thus the herd is all migratory
(resident and non-resident kill)

31. Bull Harvest in 401 (Flathead) 1976 to 2013.

32. Backcountry elk hunting lost (red) and at risk (orange)

34. South units
Doing better?
(not really)

35. WMA 422-Bull River

36. WMA 423 –Elk River

37. WMA 402-Wigwam River

38. Actual cattle losses Isolated ranch near Eureka Montana.
Kept good records, pre and post the arrival of wolves in 2005.
(not sure you are interested in this element).

39. Montana data (McGinness ranch)
Year
Cattle
Cows Lost
Calf Deaths
Weaning Wt.
Pregnancy Rate
2000
300
1.5
96%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2
715
93%
2006 3
747
92%
2007 5
720
87%
2008 7
668
82%
2009 11
637
77%
2010 12
624
71%
2011
198 20
585
74%