1. Guy Lamb, Director, Safety and Violence Initiative (UCT)
A comparative analysis of firearm regulation in Southern Africa & beyond: Practice & impact
Guy Lamb, Director, Safety and Violence Initiative (UCT)

2. SADC: Firearm regulatory timeline
Pre-2001: Diversity of regulatory controls throughout Southern Africa (mostly outdated)
2004: SADC Protocol on the Control of Firearms, Ammunition and other Related Materials enters into force
2008: SARPCCO standard operating procedures approved
SADC protocol aims to promote cooperation between states and coordinate small arms and light weapons activities aimed at curbing and preventing the illicit manufacturing of firearms, ammunition and other related materials, as well as their excessive and destabilizing accumulation, trafficking, possession and use.

3. SADC legislative dynamics & developments since 2004
Outside SA: low levels of legal firearm possession & no production, low firearm violence rates
Slow track record of finalized legislative reform
Some practical progress: Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia & Tanzania
SA has been the legislative champion & innovator: Made most progress in legislative reforms & implementation
Reform has often been slow – Lesotho – trumped by anti-terrorism legislation

4. SADC firearm regulations: some common trends
18 years = most common minimum licensing age
Background checks of varying degrees of rigor
Regular renewals of firearm licenses
Some limitations on the number of licensed firearms
Strong focus on policing of firearms
Competency testing increasingly being considered
Marking & recordkeeping prioritized
Destruction of surplus & obsolete firearms
NB: Contexts in each country are different.

5. Some comparisons Country Max firearms Max ammo Min age Renewal
Background check
Botswana 3
100 18
Medium
DRC
5 years
Basic
Lesotho 21
1 year
Malawi
Mauritius 2
200
Advanced
Mozambique 4
2 years
Namibia
Swaziland 16
Tanzania
Zambia
3 years
Zimbabwe 14

6. Some interesting regulations in other SADC countries
Botswana:
Issues a maximum of 400 licenses each year (shotguns & hunting rifles) via a lottery system;
Handguns banned;
Background checks – domestic violence & hunting offences
Mauritius:
Issues +/- 25 licenses issued each year (mainly for hunting); rarely handgun licenses

7. SADC firearm controls (excluding SA): Summing Up
Lots of talk of reform, limited quantifiable change & implementation
No studies on the impact of firearm controls
BUT: homicide rates have remained relatively constant, while SA’s firearm homicide rate has declined dramatically – WHY?

8. Reduction in the firearm homicide rate in SA (1995-2007) (Source UNODC)

9. Violent death by instrument in SA’s main cities: 1999-2008 (Source: NIMSS)

10. Firearm homicide: some international comparisons (source: UNODC)

11. What has been the impact of firearm control regulations in SA?
Researchers & gun control activists: Reduction in homicide due to more rigorous firearms control policy and legislation
SAPS (2012): “Tougher controls on the ownership, possession and use of firearms have seen a marked reduction in the incidence of gun related crime in recent years”
Do we have the evidence to support these claims?
Recent studies have shown correlation, & suggested a positive regulatory effect, but what impact of specific regulations?
Factor out everything else – it must have been the controls that had an impact
Reduce the risk.
Rigorous study – had an effect on femicide in SA

12. Minimum age: licencing requirement
Some US studies suggest: minimum age licencing reduces access of children & youth to firearms, which then reduce possible suicides, homicides & unintentional shootings
No studies in South Africa to support or refute this

13. Competency testing
Only a very limited number of countries require firearm licence applicants to undergo a competency or safety test
No uniform approach
No rigorous studies have been undertaken on its impact (including South Africa)

14. Safe storage of firearms
US & Canadian studies indicate that safe storage of firearms in homes can reduce firearm homicides, suicides & injuries
No specific recent studies of the impact of safes on firearm violence in South Africa

15. Background checks
No studies on the impact of background checks in South Africa
Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act (1993) -USA:
Prohibited: former felons, adjudicated mental defectives, former mental patients, illegal drug users & addicts, juveniles…
2013 US President Barack Obama claimed that 1.5 million “wrong people” had been prevented from acquiring a handgun
some critics of the Brady Law have indicated, this Act does not cover gun-shows. The widely held view is that a significant number firearms that are used in violent acts in the US are acquired directly of indirectly from gun-shows, as background checks are typically not undertaken in this form of trade.
One study has claimed that US states with less stringent background checks on firearms purchases were significantly linked with relatively high levels of firearm homicides
Obama’s statement was cautiously endorsed by the fact-checking service of the well-respected Washington Post. Such dealers are required to wait for a period of up to five business days prior to concluding a handgun sale in order for the check to be carried out by law enforcement authorities.

16. Policing operations
Studies of a select number of policing interventions suggest they can reduce firearm crime
Largely limited to the US: Kansas City, New York City, Indianapolis, Richmond, Boston & Pittsburgh
Involves: hotspot policing, targeted patrols, roadblocks, search-and seizure

17. What has been the impact of hot-spot / place-based policing?
City
Year
Result
Kansas City (USA)
1992
49% drop in firearm crime
Indianapolis (USA)
1997
29% drop in firearm crime
40% drop in firearm assaults & armed robberies
Pittsburgh (USA)
1998
31% drop in firearm injuries
Bogota (Colombia)
1995/96
15% drop in firearm homicide
Cali (Colombia)
1993/94
10% drop in firearm homicide
Rigorous reviews of research: hot spots policing can result in a noticeable reduction in crime particularly where more problem-oriented policing approaches are pursued

18. Sao Paulo homicide drop
Goertzel & Kahn (2009); Hartung (2009); Cerqueira (2010) & Risso (2014)
70% reduction in homicide rate between 2000 & 2010
Attributed to more effective policing methods including the better enforcement of strict gun-control legislation

19. Policing firearm operations in SA
From 2000: Targeted policing operations
Flagship intervention: Operation Sethunya (2003): roadblocks, inspection of premises and ‘stop and search’ actions (hotspots)
Confiscation of 14,000 firearms & 1.5 million rounds of ammunition
3,000+ arrests for illegal possession of firearms &/or ammunition
Destruction of large numbers of firearms
Amnesty (2005)
Encouraged hand-in of unlawful/unwanted firearms
104,000 firearms handed-in
No buy-backs implemented

20. Impact of SAPS operations on firearm homicide? (Source: SAPS)

21. Conclusion SA: likely a combo effect
CDC review of US studies (2005): The evidence available from identified studies was insufficient to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws reviewed singly or in combination. A finding that evidence is insufficient to determine effectiveness means that we do not yet know what effect, if any, the law has on an outcome—not that the law has no effect on the outcome
Related to conceal-carry laws too

22. A targeted, evidence-driven approach to reducing firearm violence
Where are the greatest concentrations of firearm violence?
What are the main drivers of this violence?
Who is mainly responsible for such violence?
How & where do they acquire firearms & ammo?
What are the most appropriate responses?