1. (How to solve) Indirect Land Use Change from biofuels
Carlo Hamelinck
Associate Director
Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen - Utrecht

2. Indirect Land Use Change

3. Global agricultural land use
World land area: 13 billion hectare
Agricultural land: 5 billion hectare
Meadows and pastures
(26% or 3.4 BHa)
Feedstock for biofuels in 2013 (24 Mha)
Arable and crops
(12% or 1.6 BHa)
Forests
(31% or 4 BHa)
0.5% or 24 million hectare for the production of (currently) 3% of the global transport fuels
If all transport fuels to be produced in such a way, then about 17% of agricultural land required (750 million hectare)
Other
(31% or 4 BHa)
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

4. ILUC concept: indirect land use change (simplistic explanation)
Unused
High carbon land A
Unsustainable Direct land use change
Existing farms & plantations C2
Existing farms & plantations B
Using existing crops or land? C2
Meadows and pastures
Meadows and pastures
Unused Low carbon land
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

5. ILUC concept: indirect land use change (simplistic explanation)
Unused
High carbon land A
Unsustainable Direct land use change B’
Existing farms & plantations C2
Existing farms & plantations B
Indirect land use change
Meadows and pastures C2
Meadows and pastures B’
Unused Low carbon land B’
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

6. ILUC can be avoided A B’ B B’ B’ Unsustainable Direct land use change
Unused
High carbon land A
Unsustainable Direct land use change B’
Existing farms & plantations C2
Existing farms & plantations B
Indirect land use change
Meadows and pastures C2
Meadows and pastures B’
Unused Low carbon land B’
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

7. ILUC can be avoided A B’ B B’ B’ Unsustainable Direct land use change
Unused
High carbon land A
Unsustainable Direct land use change B’ C2
Existing farms & plantations B
Indirect land use change
Increase land use efficiency C2
Meadows and pastures B’
Unused Low carbon land B’ C1
Sustainable Direct land use change
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

8. ILUC concept Political concern:
Increased consumption of biofuels require agricultural expansion at a global scale
Marginal land use change causes high carbon emissions
This limits greenhouse gas savings from biofuels application
Policy makers want to understand the larger consequences of their decisions
Biofuels industry feels unfair treatment – are not cause – have little influence
Models can shed some light on the land use impact of biofuels
ILUC quantification: For a certain biofuels development, the land use change is quantified worldwide, and compared to counterfactual, i.e. the world without that development
In absence of biofuels, so: in the counterfactual, LUC also takes place, but later.
This is inevitable, if we accept it – but it can also be avoided and then ILUC disappears.
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

9. Key results

10. Globiom – Summary of model results
Scenarios assume an increase of 1% of each crop-fuel combination, compared to fossil comparator, between 2010 and Total ILUC of this period is amortised over 20 years.
Thus ILUC factor applies only to the 1% of marginally additional biofuels.
Note that biofuels from EU feedstock before 2008 were introduced free of ILUC, because the then set-aside land could not be used for anything else.
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

11. Globiom – Summary of model results
Conventional biodiesel feedstocks have typically large ILUC impact
Loss of soil organic carbon in grass and forest land
Peatland drainage and oxidation
Direct and large impact on palm oil
Indirect and reduced impact on other vegetable oils via substitution
Both conventional ethanol and advanced fuels have lower ILUC impact
Higher yields give lower impacts
Less / no connection to palm oil
Remarkable that contribution of conventional ethanol is limited in RED II proposal
Energy crops have negative ILUC because of increased carbon stock
Forestry residues not better than ethanol, as soil organic carbon does not increase
Straw can have 0 ILUC if straw removal rate is limited to 30-50%
EU biofuels mix has high impact if 1/6 of additional biofuel concerns palm oil biodiesel
ILUC impact almost halved if EU abandoned land is used
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

12. Some findings are counter-intuitive
ILUC is very much a local problem
With less deforestation globally (assume carbon price of only USD 50/tCO2) and with no peatland drainage in Indonesia, Malaysia, ILUC would almost disappear
Foregone sequestration:
Without biofuels, more EU cropland is abandoned and partially becomes forest
Assumes (accepts) decline of EU agricultural sector
Results for straw depend much on extend and location
Same probably holds for other waste products
Co-produced animal feed
Leads to decreased soy production in Latin America  good
Which in turn leads to increased palm oil in South East Asia  bad
(Still, overall LUC impacts decrease as result of co-products)
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

13. Important notices
ILUC factor is only for additional biofuels compared to 2010 level
Transport and Environment (NGO) interpretation incorrect
ILUC factors do not add to direct emissions for all biofuels
(Moreover, observed direct emissions much better than RED typical)
Biofuels produced from crops under set-aside regime ILUC free
Results for individual crop-fuel combinations are for a 1% increase from 2010
Smaller increases would result in lower ILUC values (non-linearity)
ILUC amortised over 20 years - after 20 years much lower value
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

14. What if higher yields?

15. Precision farming and smart fertilisation
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

16. Smarter use of land Cane – cattle integration Multi-cropping
Smart rotations
Sequential cropping
Strip tillage
Many options for sustainable intensification and achieving higher yields with less impacts.
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

17. Bridge yield gaps in developing countries
Access to know-how
Access to means and machinery
Access to market
Use bio-energy investments to leverage agricultural developments.
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

18. What if ban on palm oil in EU biofuels?

19. Palm oil ban from EU biofuels
Palm oil is feedstock with largest concerns
RSPO RED forbids dLUC, but cannot address ILUC
Phase out of palm oil from EU biofuels
Delays palm oil expansion for other uses for a certain time
This delivers an ILUC advantage compared to keeping palm oil
Replacing palm oil with other vegoil in EU biofuels probably beneficial for ILUC impact
Does not avoid palm oil expansion in long-run
Complementary measures?
Set stricter requirements to palm oil in EU food?
Assist Indonesia in stopping unsustainable expansion?
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

20. Achieving COP21 targets?

21. Globiom – Summary of model results
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

22. Way forward

23. Way forward
Sustainable biofuels are essential for sustainable transport (next to other solutions)
Biofuels are not automatically good or bad
The potential for sustainable biofuels can be very large
This requires improvements in agricultural practice and system
In long run, bioenergy and -materials have low greenhouse gas emissions
ILUC pays back: much smaller or even zero after 20 years
Fossil fuels never pay back – instead, emissions increase
Deforestation & peatland drainage will not stop in absence of biofuels
Under global 1.5C scenario these practices will stop  ILUC disappears
Produce biofuels feedstock without ILUC
Increase yields above baseline (especially relevant for “food crops”)
Developed countries: innovations: precision farming, multi-cropping
Developing countries: bridge yield gaps: access to means, know-how & market
Production on unused / abandoned land (direct & good Land Use Change)
Cellulose feedstocks, sustainable fraction of residues, and true wastes
Any ILUC mitigation measure should be credible and verifiable
Carlo Hamelinck – for Platform Duurzame Biobrandstoffen

24. sustainable energy for everyone