1. What’s happening with Jobcentre vacancies
Paul Bivand
Inclusion

2. Survey vacancies flat, JCP up

3. How does that compare to new JSA claims?
Still talking about 30-hour vacancies

4. Turning new vacancies and claims into a single ratio

5. Drilling down more deeply...
We study 26 groups of jobs covering all occupations that are not managerial, professional or associate professional
We analyse the seasonal patterns
We analyse the trends
And we compare with new JSA claims – because some jobs are higher turnover than others – this corrects for that

6. An example ...

7. Comparing that to new JSA claims

8. Administrative occupations

9. Customer service recovering

10. Sales assistants – not (but may be changing names)

11. But some areas looking better - drivers

12. Looking at the much of the labour market makes your eyes ache.
Date
911 : Elementary Agricultural Occupations
912 : Elementary Construction Occupations
913 : Elementary Process Plant Occupations
914 : Elementary Goods Storage Occupations
921 : Elementary Administration Occupations
922 : Elementary Personal Services Occupations
923 : Elementary Cleaning Occupations
924 : Elementary Security Occupations
925 : Elementary Sales Occupations
811 : Process Operatives
812 : Plant And Machine Operatives
813 : Assemblers And Routine Operatives
814 : Construction Operatives
821 : Transport Drivers And Operatives
822 : Mobile Machine Drivers And Operatives
711 : Sales Assistants And Retail Cashiers
712 : Sales Related Occupations
721 : Customer Service Occupations
41 : Administrative Occupations
42 : Secretarial and Related Occupations
51 : Skilled Agricultural Trades
52 : Skilled Metal and Electronic Trades
53 : Skilled Construction and Building Trades
54 : Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades
61 : Caring Personal Service Occupations
62 : Leisure and Other Personal Service Occupations
May 2008
0.7
1.0
0.6
6.5
2.1
3.4
5.0
7.2
1.5
2.0
1.8
1.4
2.5
17.3
4.0
1.6
2.6
1.2
2.7
3.6
1.3
June 2008
0.8
0.9
6.3
3.3
4.5
6.6
1.7
1.1
2.3
15.2
3.5
1.9
2.4
July 2008
0.5
5.9
3.1
4.3
14.0
3.2
2.2
August 2008
5.2
3.9
6.1
12.4
2.9
September 2008
4.1
3.0
3.7
11.0
0.4
October 2008
5.5
11.1
November 2008
5.1
2.8
10.5
December 2008
0.3
4.7
January 2009
4.4
4.8
9.0
February 2009
8.5
March 2009
3.8
7.8
April 2009
8.6
May 2009
8.7
June 2009
10.2
July 2009
9.5
August 2009
10.9
September 2009
10.1
October 2009
4.6
11.2
November 2009
December 2009
January 2010
February 2010
12.1
March 2010
5.6
13.4
April 2010
6.7
14.9
May 2010
7.6
16.4
June 2010
6.8
18.3
July 2010
6.2
19.9
August 2010
19.5
0.2
September 2010
18.4
October 2010
6.4
17.9
November 2010
26.6
December 2010
7.4
26.1
January 2011
5.7
22.5
February 2011
5.4
13.1
March 2011
5.3
14.6
April 2011
16.1
May 2011
June 2011
14.1
July 2011
12.3
August 2011
September 2011
October 2011
10.6
4.2
14.3
November 2011
13.5
16.6
December 2011
15.5
18.1
January 2012
12.9
21.8
February 2012
19.2
March 2012
12.2
18.9
April 2012
11.9
5.8
14.8
May 2012
15.7
Looking at the much of the labour market makes your eyes ache.
We’ve got time down the left – where the red and yellow spreads across is the recession.
Some occupation groups have not come back.
Some, however, have.
There are stories about change within sectors that are useful to know here. In Sales, there are changes to odd, difficult to classify, sales related jobs. Customer services just back in the green. Semi-skilled manufacturing and transport mostly green. Some skilled trades doing well but not others. Administrative and secretarial still stuck in recession.
More details in the packs

13. The regional picture Region Latest Rank Last Month Change on month
Last Month
Change on month
Same Month last year
Change on year
East
1.55 4
1.57
-0.01
1.18
0.38
East Midlands
1.73 2
1.59
0.14
1.14
0.59
London
1.02 10
0.95
0.07
0.67
0.35
North East 11
0.97
0.05
0.82
0.20
North West
1.36 6
1.32
0.04
1.00
0.37
Scotland
1.05 9
1.03
0.02
0.80
0.25
South East
1.78 1
1.71
0.60
South West
1.69 3
1.66
0.03
1.28
0.41
Wales
1.20 7
1.17
0.17
West Midlands
1.52 5
0.00
0.34
Yorkshire and The Humber 8
1.15
0.94
0.23
Highest number or largest rise
These are based on seasonally adjusted figures
Lowest number or largest fall

14. Colour-coded by qualifications of entrants - median

15. How do we do this?
Jobcentre notified vacancies from NOMIS – standardised to weeks a month
R function stl() to decompose using loess for trend, “periodic” means unchanging seasonal factors
Result smoothed with 3-month moving average
The Occupation/Earnings/qualifications is ASHE for Occupation/earnings/number in group and LFS for qualifications of recent job starters

21. JSA claimant inflows
Similar methods for people with a usual occupation in the group
Improvements possible.
Would be useful if ONS could share X12 spec files for claimant flows – 4/5 weeks are same, public holidays.
Vacancy figures offset from claimants by one week so public holidays differ

22. Is the analysis useful? Provides useful view of trends
But likely to be prone to ‘blips’ even with three-month moving average
Occupations rather than sectors as c. 50% of Jobcentre vacancies in SIC (2003) 74 – Other Business Activities - including recruitment agencies, contract cleaning, security guarding

23. Problems ahead...
The data we have includes several changes to Jobcentre processes
Our users – with active engagement with Jobcentre Plus – are in a position to query JCP staff
From November, the vacancies platform moves to Monster UK – likely to be break in all series