1. WeatherDiscussion0512

2. Major Weather Related Threat

5. Seattle Pollen 05/12/14

6. Temps Have Been Warm

7. And Dry

8. 500 hPa Anomaly

9. Obligatory ENSO Discussion

10. Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4
0.8ºC
Niño 3.4
0.5ºC
Niño 3
0.6ºC
Niño 1+2
1.2ºC

11. Weekly Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Average Temperature Anomalies
Subsurface temperature anomalies increased during June, August, and in October Toward the end of January 2014, temperature anomalies strongly increased. Recently, the positive anomalies have decreased, but remain elevated.

12. Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific
Recently, positive subsurface anomalies are widespread across most of the Pacific basin, but have weakened in recent weeks.
Most recent pentad analysis
During March-April, the downwelling phase of a strong oceanic Kelvin wave resulted in an eastward shift of above-average temperatures (right hand panels).
The recent weakening of the positive temperature departures represents the effects of the upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave.

13. Predictability

14. CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 8 May 2014
The chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of 2014, exceeding 65% by summer (JJA).

15. February Forecast Was Less Confident

16. IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook
Most models predict ENSO-neutral (-0.5ºC to +0.5ºC) to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (AMJ). After that, models predict either ENSO-neutral or El Niño (greater or equal to +0.5ºC) during the rest of 2014.
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 April 2014).

17. SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued: 12 May 2014
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño starting within the next 1-3 months.

18. What Happened to the CA Drought?

23. Paradise

28. Bicycle Lake

34. 1430 UTC May 11