1. Continuation of Adricosm forecasting activities
P. Oddo1, A. Coluccelli1, N. Pinardi2, M. Zavatarelli2
1-Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
(Gruppo Nazionale di Oceanografia Operativa)
2-Università di Bologna
Progetto Requisite
12-13 Dicembre 2005
(Ancona)
Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory
INGV
UNIBO

2. The AREG operational forecasting system
Simulation
Forecast
Model
AREG (POM based code)
Horizontal / Vertical resolutions
5Km / 21 σ
Start Time
1-Jan-1999
April 2003
End time
Initial condition
Climatological implementation of AREG
Snap-shot of AREG simulation
Rivers run-off
Daily Po data
Constant Po run-off
Climatological monthly mean, Raicich (others rivers)
Atmospheric forcing
ECMWF(6 hr. 0.5°) analysis
ECMWF(6 hr. 0.5°) forecast
Precipitations
Climatological monthly mean (Legates Willmott 1990)
Boundary conditions
OGCM (MFSTEP) analysis
OGCM (MFSTEP) forecast

3. The AREG operational forecasting system
Data Assimilation of coastal CTD and open ocean XBT
EOF have been computed for several Adriatic regions
EOF have been calculated from model results and for the following seasons:
Winter (January-April)
Spring (May-June)
Summer (July-October)
Autumn (November-December)
In regions 2,3,4,7 EOFs (T,S) from POM simulation
In regions 5,6 EOF(T,S) from MFS

4. The AREG operational forecasting system
Data Assimilation of coastal CTD and open ocean XBT

5. New high resolution model (under development)
Same Code : POM
Different grid hor.: to km
Different grid vert.: to sigma
Different river run-off: reduced Croatian and Istrian
Different advection scheme: Smol. to old POM scheme
Different initial condition: Clim. POM to interannual OPA
Different boundary condition: MFS PP(MOM) to STEP(OPA)

6. New high resolution model (under development)
New model
Op. model
Obs. Sat.
Sea Surface Temperature 20 September 2003

7. New high resolution model (under development)
New Mod.
Ope. Mod.

8. Weekly forecast to Requisite bulletins

9. Weekly forecast to Requisite bulletins

10. Conclusions and Future work
AREG forecasting activities have been implemented successfully and development continues (Operational from April 2003).
Long term nesting of large shelf models seems to work without re-start and without model drift.
The model results show a strong inter-annual variability, confirmed also by observed data.
Data assimilation implemented for coastal CTD and open ocean XBTs
The AREG 2.2km 41 sigma layers has been implemented.
A preliminary comparison between model results has been carried out
Sensitivity experiments on vertical resolution
Improve the resolution of surface forcing (atmospheric and rivers run-off).
Support the activities for a high resolution coastal models.