1. GENESYS Redevelopment Strawman Proposal
March 17th, 2016

2. What are the Questions?
What is the probability that the region will have to take an emergency action to keep the lights on in 5 years?
Do we have enough resources?
Are they sufficiently flexible?
What actions or decisions impact the probability that the region will have to take emergency actions?

3. What are the Challenges?
Long-term and Short-term Load Forecast Error
Water Run-off Forecasts Error
Demand Response
Energy Storage
Potential Coordinated Hydro Capacity
Thermal Operating Reserves
Dynamic Hydro Reserves
Automated Markets

4. Power System Planning What is an adequate system?
What is an economic solution?
Are these confounded?

5. Proposal – Coordinated Resource Dispatch
Value of stored water – price of changing hydro operations
Extra-regional market impacts on regional dispatched resources
Variable generation and must-run impacts on regional dispatched resources

6. Proposal – Multi-stage Unit Commitment
Complete integration of an hourly water-based hydro dispatch and variable generation forecasts with thermal market-based unit commitment

7. Proposal – Multi-stage Unit Commitment
Monthly Expected Operation
Weekly Forecast / Initial Unit Commitment
Day-Ahead Forecast / Unit Commitment
Hour-Ahead Forecast / Dispatch Schedule
After the Hour True-up on Fuel and Reserve Deployment

8. Basic Production Cost Model
Monthly Expected Operation
Weekly Forecast / Initial Unit Commitment
Day-Ahead Forecast / Unit Commitment
Hour-Ahead Forecast / Dispatch Schedule
After the Hour True-up on Fuel and Reserve Deployment

9. Advanced Production Cost Model
Monthly Expected Operation
Weekly Forecast / Initial Unit Commitment
Day-Ahead Forecast / Unit Commitment
Hour-Ahead Forecast / Dispatch Schedule
After the Hour True-up on Fuel and Reserve Deployment

10. Proposal – Hydro Supply Forecast Error
Operate consistent with forecast hydro rather than observed hydro
Capture impacts of water run-off uncertainty in volume and timing

11. Proposal – Hourly Hydro Dispatch by Project
Improve hydro capacity contribution estimates by including hourly water routing logic

12. Proposal – Integrated Storage into Dispatch
Include storage into dispatch model with decisions on when to store, generate or take no action

13. Proposal – Simulated Load and Renewable Forecast Error
Simulate operations based on forecast and correct for error in subsequent commitment stages

14. Proposal – Incorporate Reserve Requirements
Simulate allocation and deployment of reserves on resources including hydro, thermal, demand response, etc.

15. Proposal – Direct Conservation Input
Integrate uncertainty of conservation achievement into long-term load forecast and error estimation