1. Status Report on the 2016-17 Drought
Water Services Forum
Presented by: Ms Celiwe Ntuli
Date: 24 May 2017

7. Prepared by SAWS

11. Monitoring of 2016-2017 System Performance IVRS

12. Integrated Vaal River System
Existing Transfer Schemes
Proposed Transfer Schemes
Mokolo Catchment
Transfers relevant to VRESS
Crocodile Catchment
Vaal Catchment

13. Vaal River Eastern Sub-System (Simplified Schematic)
UK link
Komati Abstractions
New Vaal-Duvha link
Original Vaal-Duvha link

14. Status of Water Resources this week
Province
FSC in 106 m^3
Number of Dams per Province
% of full capacity
Total
≤10%
10% to 40%
≥100%
23/05/16
Last Year
15/05/17
22/05/17
Eastern Cape
1 832 43 4 7 6
71,5
62,0
61,8
Free State
15 971 19 1 3
54,5
84,7
84,5
Gauteng
115
87,5
92,1
91,8
Kwazulu-Natal
4 669 18 2 5
49,8
57,6
58,4
Lesotho*
2 376
49,7
52,5
52,0
Limpopo
1 522 28 14
59,6
78,4
78,2
Mpumalanga
2 539 22
62,6
79,5
79,4
Northern Cape
146
63,6
91,5
87,3
North West
887 30 12
66,4
89,9
89,6
Swaziland*
334
25,3
82,2
83,0
Western Cape O
270 21
46,9
22,3
21,9
Western Cape W
1 598 13
27,7
18,8
18,0
Western Cape
1 867 9
30,5
19,3
18,6
32 272
215 15 33 54
54,1
72,7
72,6

15. Comments (dams and systems below 40%)
Item
FSCap. 106 m3
15 May
22 May
Comments (dams and systems below 40%)
Vaal System:
Vaal
Sterkfontein
Bloemhof
Grootdraai
10 565
2 603
2 617
1 240
350
85,3%
101%
90,4%
95,7%
84,9%
100%
90,6%
91,2%
14 dams serving, amongst others, Gauteng, Sasol, and ESKOM. System was 58,6% in 2016.
Restrictions have been lifted, but some Metros still limit the use of potable water for gardening.
Orange River:
Gariep
Vanderkloof
8 367
5 196
3 171
80,4%
88,6%
67,0%
80,1%
87,4%
66,1%
System was 57,8% last year this time.
Restrictions have been lifted.
Polokwane:
254
64,2%
64,1%
2 dams, was 51,6%, non-compliance with restrictions.
Crocodile West:
450
99,3%
99,4%
6 dams for Tshwane, Madibeng & Rustenburg.
System was 96,3% last year this time
Klipplaat 57
53,2%
55,1%
3 dams in the Beyers Naudé LM, Jansenville, Klipplaat & Waterford, was 85,7% last year.
Luvuvhu
225
99,0%
3 dams: Thohoyando and Letaba area,
was 64,6% last year.
Bloemfontein:
223
51,5%
51,8%
4 dams serving Mangaung, was 34,5% last year
77% compliance to the D:30% restriction.

16. (dams and systems below 40% in red)
Item
Cap in
106m3
15 May
22 May
Comments
(dams and systems below 40% in red)
Western Cape:
Voëlvlei
Berg River
Theewaterskloof
Wemmershoek
889
159
127
479 59
20,8%
16,9%
30,9%
14,8%
36,3%
20,0%
15,0%
30,1%
14,1%
36,4%
6 dams for the City of Cape Town, 30,1% last year.
20% Urban achieved
Cape Town with 3b restrictions applied, now moving to level 4 to achieve more savings.
Irrigation achieving 11% of the 30% restriction target. Currently no irrigation in winter as per irrigation practice
Brandvlei
Clanwilliam
Kwaggaskloof
286
122
169
9,8%
6,6%
9,3%
6,3%
13,3%
Compliance with Ir: 40% restrictions.
Algoa System:
Kouga
Impofu
282
126
106
39,6%
23,0%
65,7%
38,8%
22,1%
64,9%
5 dams for Nelson Mandela Bay, (77,4%)
U: 15% restrictions not achieved; directive issued, NMBM implemented by-laws on local restrictions
Darlington
181
40,1%
40,3%
Cannot be operated above 40% due to Dam safety issues
Amatole System:
241
70,5%
70,1%
6 dams for Buffalo City (87,9%)
Umgeni System:
Inanda
Midmar
Albert Falls
923
237
235
288
62,1%
65,1%
79,1%
33,5%
63,9%
68,2%
80,1%
34,0%
5 dams serving Ethekwini & Msunduzi
System was 54,3% last year this time
D:15%, I:15%, Ir:50%. 12% of the targeted 15% being achieved on urban demand. 50% Irrigation restriction is achieved
Hazelmere
Pongolapoort 18
2 267
101%
118%
40,4%
Restrictions relaxed at Hazelmere Dam due to Dam wall raising
Goedertrouw
Hluhluwe
Klipfontein
301 26
30,0%
41,1%
67,4%
32,5%
72,8%
68,7%
D:40%, Ir:80%, In:15% restrictions achieved
D:20%, Ir:80%, In:20% restrictions achieved
Water Supply to Vryheid restricted due to Infrastructure constraints.

17. Actual Transfers: Heyshope to Grootdraai Dam

18. Actual Transfers: Thukela to Sterkfontein

25. Medium-Long-Term Perspective

26. Intervention Planning
High with target WC/WDM
Desalination for urban use
Unlawful removed
Re-use (Tshwane )
High water requirement
Unlawful removed
WC/WDM savings
Tshwane re-use
High water requirement
Unlawful removed
Short term availability due to current reservoir volumes
LHWP Phase II Yield
(Polihali Dam)
Yield increases due to desalination of mine water
System
Yield
Information from draft status report (submitted to Seef Rademeyer):
The water balance and target reconciliation scenario (including all interventions) is shown in Figure, where the following can be observed:
The discharge of high salinity mine water will increase once the underground compartments filled and this will require large volumes of releases from Vaal Dam for dilution, which reduces the system yield due to excessive spills and wastage from Bloemhof Dam.
Desalination and use of the mine effluent prevent these wastages and the system yield remains at about million m3/annum.
The water used in 2015 (end of the black line) exceeds the long-term sustainable yield of the system and drought restrictions were avoided only due the current high water levels in the dams.
2016 first level of water restrictions had to be implemented, the system recovered due to rains and water savings from water restrictions
The eradication of unlawful irrigation water use by 2015 and the savings through WC/WDM will maintain a positive water balance until 2021.
The red shaded area highlights the period, prior to the implementation of Phase II of the LHWP (Polihali Dam and conveyance infrastructure), where the risk of drought restriction are exceeding the acceptable criteria.
The red and white hashed area shows that, if the target WC/WDM saving are not achieved, elevated risks of drought restriction will occur between 2020 and 2025 until LHWP Phase 2 can increase delivery as indicated.
The outcome of the target reconciliation scenario resented in Figure shows that a positive water balance can be maintained until and beyond the year 2050 if all the strategy actions are implemented.
Elevated risks without WC/WDM savings
First transfer from LHWP Phase II 26

27. MJJ Seasonal forecast: Rainfall JJA JAS SAWS Rainfall Forecast
There is still a significant amount of uncertainty in this product at the current time, as the forecasting systems tend to have difficulty in producing skilful forecasts during the winter season. The latest forecast issued last week shows that the SW Cape may receive above-normal rainfall during winter. Of most significance, it also shows some indication for extreme above-normal rainfall over the area of concern.
JJA
JAS

28. Seasonal forecast:
Extreme Rainfall

29. Conclusion
IVRS has recovered to sustainable level safe to lift water restrictions (Gazette Notice Dated 13 March 2017) and the levels have now stabilized as expected as we approach the end of the rainy season
Most systems have showed improved conditions compared to last year except for the Western Cape and the Eastern Cape which remain of major concern
Weather forecast shows that the SW Cape may receive extremely above-normal rainfall during winter. Long-term forecast are still very much uncertain during winter
With the possibility of a moderate El Nino event recurring in the summer of 2017/18, conservative planning is advised
The annual operating analysis for the Integrated Vaal River System has been delayed but is being conducted
RSA remains a water scarce country and we need to continue using water efficiently.

30. THANK YOU!