1. Samir Mili, CSIC, Madrid Boubaker Karray, IO, Tunisia
EU-Med Agpol Annual Meeting
Euro-Med Trade Liberalization Impacts on European Olive Oil
Paris, March 2007
Samir Mili, CSIC, Madrid
Boubaker Karray, IO, Tunisia

2. We have : Delphi Tunisia estimates EU expert assessments
CAPRI model estimates
EU expert assessments

3. 3 Importing Regimes Preferential tariffs and quotas regime
Inward processing regime (No quantitative impact on EU domestic supply)
Normal (MFN) regime

4. Olive Oil Tariff Quotas Granted to Third Countries
Code NC
Quota (tons)
Date of Application
Lebanon
150910
1000
March 2003
Palestine
2000
January 2005
Tunisia
57167
May 2004
Algeria
1509
October 2005 
1510
 1000
Morocco
3500
September 2005
151000
Turkey*
In progress
Syria
Jordan
From 1er January to 31 December 2006
4500
From 1er January to 31 December 2007
7000
From 1er January to 31 December 2008
9500
From1er January to 31 December 2009
12000
From1er January to 31 December 2010
*Current regulation: tariff reduction on olive oil imports from this country

5. World Olive Oil Market Aggregate Figures 1990–2006
Av./
campaign
(1000 t)
CV (%)
Min
Max
% Δ
Av. 98/99-05/06 //
Av. 90/91-
97/98
Av. annual
% growth (2)
Production
2319.7
EU 80% 22
EU 20
1453.0
3162.0 37
EU 40
6.0
EU 6.4
Consumption
2287.9
EU 70% 17
1666.5
2923.5 34
4.1
Exports (1)
432.2
EU 60% 24
256.5
625.0 41
4.5
Imports (1)
437.1
EU 35% 21
288.5
634.0
Only extra-EU-15
Average compound rate

6. Market Share Concentration in the EU Olive Oil Industry (%)Ci
Spain
Italy C2 C4
C10 28 37 42 25 31 38

7. Olive oil Virgin olive pomace
Structure of Olive Oil Production and Marketing Chain
Milling and storage
Marketing at
origin/storage
Refining
Marketing/Export
Olive
oil
Bottling/Canning
Virgin
olive
pomace
Extraction of
olive pomace
Mills
facilities
Co-operative mills
Refining facilities-bottling plants
Co-operative MilIs
Bottling/canning plants
Large trading enterprises at origin
Extraction
Mills-Extraction facilities
Refining facilities- bottling plants
Extraction and refining facilities

8. CAPRI Results Olive Oil (1)
'Imports
Baseline
Bilateral Partial Liberalization
Bilateral Full Liberalization
Bilateral Partial + G20
1000 t'
22.6
22.28
46.29
26.85
0.00%
0.05%
107.91%
20.58%

9. CAPRI Results Olive Oil (2)
Imports from mediterannians
Baseline
Bilateral Partial Liberalization
Bilateral Full Liberalization
Bilateral Partial + G20
'Turkey'
2.93
28.89
11.34
0.00%
-0.03%
887.07%
287.28%
‘Other Med. countries'
6.79
6.81
5.29
3.91
0.26%
-22.07%
-42.42%

10. DELPHI Results Tunisia (1) OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL
2010
2015
Olive oil production
142
190
250
Increasing plantations yields through the application of good agricultural practices 1
An integrated olive growing strategy strongly based on scientific arguments, clear objectives, and mobilizing adequate human and material means 2
Extending areas of irrigated oil olives 3
Reinforcing financial availabilities for the benefit of the sector, and granting direct aid to producers 4
Restructuring old plantations through uprooting and replanting, while increasing densities 5
Extending areas of oil olives in dry conditions while increasing densities 6
Promoting hyper-intensive plantations 7
Encouraging the selection of Tunisian varieties in intensive plantations 8

11. DELPHI Tunisia Scenarios
Scenario 1: PARTIAL LIBERALIZATION
1. Quota
86000 tons
2. Inward-processing
MAINTAINED
3. Normal (MFN) regime
Reduction
Extra virgin
1245 Euros/t – 20%
Lamp
1226 Euros/t – 20%
Refined
1346 Euros/t – 20%
Scenario 2: FULL LIBERALIZATION

12. DELPHI Results Tunisia (2) OLIVE OIL EXPORT POTENTIAL (1000 t)
01-05
2010
2015
Scenario 1: PARTIAL LIBERALIZATION
83.5
186
224
1.Quota
With increasing J, F and M quantities
Without increasing J, F and M quantities
n.a 85 83 84
2.Inward-processing
If suspended
46.8
100 50
130 65
3.MFN tariff: normal regime 12 18
Scenario 2: FULL LIBERALIZATION
153
206