1. Modern Iraq

2. The People and the Economy
Population: 29,671,605 (July 2010 est.)
Ethnic Groups: Arab 75%-80%, Kurdish 15%-20%, Turkoman, Assyrian, or other 5%
Religions: Muslim 97% (Shia 60%-65%, Sunni 32%-37%), Christian or other 3%
GDP Per Capita: $3,800 (2009 est.)
Percent Below Poverty Line: 25% (2008)
Petroleum:
Reserves: 115 billion bbl (1 January 2010 est.) (4th rank in world)
Exports: 1.91 million bbl/day (2009 est.) (11th rank in world)

4. Ottoman Provinces Incorporated into Iraq

5. Gertrude Bell, 1868-1927 Born into one of the wealthiest families
of England.
Worked in intelligence for British government. Knew seven languages, including Arabic, Turkish, Persian.
Was central influence in drawing map of
Iraq, keeping control from Kurds and Shi’as.
Supported Faisal as its first leader.
Gertrude Bell,
Born into one of the wealthiest families
of England. Received History degree from
Oxford, in two years. Soon after she
visited uncle, who was mayor of Tehran.
Knew seven languages, including Arabic,
Turkish, Persian. Traveled widely. Archeologist.
Worked in intelligence for British government.
Was central influence in drawing map of
Iraq. Supported Faisal as its first leader.
Active suffragette. Never married

6. King Faisal I 1885-1933 King 1921-33 Born in Mecca, worked
with British and T.E.
Lawrence against
Ottomans.
Unsuccessful at gaining
control of Syria.
King Faisal I
King
Born in Mecca, worked with British (and T.E. Lawrence) against Ottomans

7. King Ghazi I 1912- 39 King 1933-39 Born in Mecca. Becomes
King on death of his father
Faisal.
Popular among Iraqis for his anti-British nationalism.
Dies in an auto crash, under unusual circumstances.
Upon his death, Iraq is ruled by a regent until Faisal II comes of age.
King Ghazi I.

8. King Faisal 2 1935-1958 King 1953-58 Kingdom was ruled in his
name by his Uncle, the Regent.
Died in a military coup led by
General Karim Qassem in 1958
King Faisal 2
King

9. Saddam’s Path to Power
Saddam was born in a village just outside Takrit in April In his teenage years, Saddam immersed himself in the anti-British and anti-Western atmosphere of the day. At college in Baghdad he joined the Baath party.
In 1959, an assassination attempt organized by the Ba'ath Party against PM Karim Qassem, failed. Amongst the unsuccessful assassination squad was the young Saddam Hussein.

10. Saddam’s Path to Power
Escaped to Syria and thence to Egypt where he completed his secondary school studies in 1962.
Admitted into the College of Law in Cairo and attended in the period

11. Saddam’s Path to Power
In 1963, with the Baath party in control in Baghdad, Saddam Hussein returned home and began jostling for a position of influence.
During this period he married his cousin Sajida. They later had two sons and three daughters.
But within months, the Baath party had been overthrown and Saddam was jailed, remaining there until the party returned to power in a coup in July 1968.

12. Saddam Makes It to The Top
The Baath party returned to power in a coup in July Saddam gained a position on the ruling Revolutionary Command Council.
For years he was the power behind the ailing figure of the president, Ahmed Hassan Bakr. In 1979, Saddam achieved his ambition of becoming head of state.

13. Iran-Iraq War, 1980-88 Iranians Iraq seized Iran’s oil fields after
Iran’s Islamic revolution,
but Iran fought to stalemate
U.S. supported Iraq with weapons and intelligence.
Iraqis

14. Gulf War I, 1990 - 1991 Iraq claims from Ottoman days
Dispute with Kuwait over oil
Pumped from Rumallah field;
Iraq invades Kuwait August 2, 1990
U.S. sent troops with UN backing.
50 Allies in coalition. 38 states provided 50% of Troops.
U.S. paid only $9 billion of the $61 billion cost of the war.

15. US Policy During Gulf War
A week before the war broke out, US ambassador April Glaspie met Hussein and told him:
“We have no opinion on your Arab - Arab conflicts, such as your dispute with Kuwait. Secretary (of State James) Baker has directed me to emphasize the instruction, that the Kuwait issue is not associated with America.”

16. A Job Unfinished?
“Trying to eliminate Saddam...would have incurred incalculable human and political costs. Apprehending him was probably impossible.... We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq....there was no viable "exit strategy" we could see, violating another of our principles. Furthermore, we had been self-consciously trying to set a pattern for handling aggression in the post-Cold War world. Going in and occupying Iraq, thus unilaterally exceeding the United Nations' mandate, would have destroyed the precedent of international response to aggression that we hoped to establish. Had we gone the invasion route, the United States could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land.”
From George H.W. Bush and Brent Scowcroft,
A World Transformed (1998), pp

17. 9/11, Al-Qaeda, and Iraq
"There was a relationship between Iraq and Saddam and al-Qaida there were numerous contacts between Saddam and al-Qaida.''
"Saddam Hussein was a threat. He was a threat because he had used weapons of mass destruction against his own people. He was a threat because he was a sworn enemy of the United States of America, just like al-Qaida. He was a threat because he had terrorist connections.“
President G.W. Bush, Comments to Reporters, 17 June 2004

18. Iraq’s Threat to America
“Iraq has stockpiled biological and chemical weapons, and is rebuilding the facilities used to make more of those weapons.”
President G.W. Bush Radio address, October 5, 2002
“Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction.”
Dick Cheney August 26, 2002
“Intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised.”
George W. Bush March 18, 2003
“We know where they are. They are in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad.”
Donald Rumsfeld March 30, 2003

19. Some Democrats Believe Too
“Iraq both poses a continuing threat to the national security of the United States and international peace and security in the Persian Gulf region and remains in material and unacceptable breach of its international obligations by, among other things, continuing to possess and develop a significant chemical and biological weapons capability, actively seeking a nuclear weapons capability, and supporting and harboring terrorist organizations.”
Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, February 5, 2003
“If we wait for the danger to become clear, it could be too late.”
Sen. Joseph Biden D-Del., September 4, 2002

20. The Intelligence Failure?
“What is most remarkable about prewar U.S. intelligence on Iraq is not that it got things wrong and thereby misled policymakers; it is that it played so small a role in one of the most important U.S. policy decisions in recent decades.
The Bush administration used intelligence not to inform decision-making, but to justify a decision already made.
It went to war without requesting -- and evidently without being influenced by -- any strategic-level intelligence assessments on any aspect of Iraq.
As the national intelligence officer for the Middle East, I was in charge of coordinating all of the intelligence community's assessments regarding Iraq; the first request I received from any administration policymaker for any such assessment was not until a year into the war.
The administration selected pieces of raw intelligence to use in its public case for war, leaving the intelligence community to register varying degrees of private protest”
PAUL R. PILLAR National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia from 2000 to 2005 in “Intelligence, Policy, and The War in Iraq”, Foreign Policy, March 2006.

21. Human Cost of the War U.S.-LED COALITION FORCES CASUALTIES:
United States
Deaths 4,405
Wounded 31,911
Britain 129
Other nations 123
IRAQI CASUALTIES:
Military Between 4,900 and 6,375
Civilians Between 53,194 and 75,797

22. Economic Cost of the War
$866 billion as of 10 November 2010
Spending $12.5 billion per month (Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University)
Estimates that eventual costs $1-2 trillion

23. 4 Million Displaced Iraqis

24. Baghdad Ethnic Changes 2003 vs. 2007

25. U.S. – Iraq Status of Forces Agreement,14 October 2008
U.S. forces will remain in Iraq after the expiration of UN mandate on 31 December 2008.
U.S. soldiers and contractors will be subject to Iraqi judicial law in case these forces commit a felony outside their military bases and when off duty.
U.S. combat forces will be withdrawn from Iraq by 31 August ,000 training forces will remain.
All U.S. forces will withdraw from Iraq by 31 December 2011, unless Iraq asks them to remain.

26. Prospects for Iraq?
Iraq is still divided along cultural and religious lines: Shia Arabs are 60% of the population, Sunni Arabs about 20% and Kurds, a non-Arab but Sunni Muslim people, are about 17% of the population.
The central government is controlled by Shia Arab political parties.
Sunni Arabs feel disenfranchised figuratively and literally.
Kurds are restless junior partners in the central government but their real aspiration is independence for their region of Iraq as a prototype for a broader state encompassing all Kurds.

27. The Kurds: A Nation without a State

28. Kurdish Separation Efforts
Promise of an autonomous Kurdish state by the League of Nations in the Treaty of Sevres.
Many Kurdish political leaders, including former Ottoman Officers, sheiks, and tribal chiefs immediately resisted Sunni rule in Iraq.
Mahmud Berzenji declares an independent Kurdish state in 1924 in response to the rising influence of the Kurdish people in northern Iraq.
British and Sunni Military subdue the Kurdish state.

29. Kurd Separatism Efforts
1932-Second Kurdish rebellion put down by British and Sunni forces
1940-Mullah Mustafa Barzani leads rebellion against Iraqi military and police force, and is forced to flee along with 100,000 Kurds to Iran and the Soviet Union.
1958 -Barzani returns and forms the Republic of Mahabad under the sponsorship of the U.S.S.R..
Collapses in 1978 under Iraqi assault
Arabization, deportation and genocide ensue.
Resettlement of about 80,000 Kurds outside Kurdish areas
Arab families moved into fertile areas of Kurdish region.
De Facto independence of Kurd area under U.S. protection following the 1991 Gulf War.

30. Elections of 2010
On 19 February the Iraqi Front for National Dialogue, the largest Sunni political party withdrew from the parliamentary elections scheduled for 7 March because the Shia controlled federal election commission banned more than 440 of its candidates from participating because of alleged ties to Saddam’s Baathist regime.
The party cited also cited comments by U.S. Ambassador Christopher Hill and Army Gen. Ray Odierno, the top American military commander in Iraq, who each described the Shiite politicians Ali al-Lami and Ahmed Chalabi, leaders of a candidate-vetting panel, as having ties to Iran.

31. Iraqi Elections March 7, 2010 All 325 seats to the Council of Representatives
Ayad Allawi Nouri Al-Maliki Ibrahim al Jaafari
Party : al-Iraqiyya State of Law National Iraqi Alliance Seats:
Votes: 2,631, ,620, ,976,412
Percent: 25.87% % %

32. Projected Composition of Parliament

33. Moqtada al-Sadr
Born in Baghdad into a prominent family of Shi’a religious figures, some of whom are Lebanese. He himself lacks the religious training to be considered as senior religious scholar (mujtahid).
The leader of the Sadrist militia movement
Moqtada al-Sadr 1973
Born in Baghdad into a prominent family of religious figures, some of whom are Lebanese. He himself lacks the religious training to be considered as senior religious scholar (mujtahid).
The leader of the Sadrist movement 33

34. Latest Developments 10 November 2010
Iraqi politicians appeared to have broken an eight month political impasse on Wednesday when the Sunni-backed Iraqiya alliance agreed to take part in a new government headed by incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
The deal will give Iraqiya a role in the new government including naming the speaker of the parliament and holding key posts in the foreign ministry and a role with possibly expanded authority over defense issues, the economy and foreign affairs
Kurdish alliance also announced support for Maliki and Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, will retain the presidency.
Last month, Maliki toured capitals in the region -- from Iran and Syria to Turkey and Egypt -- to gain regional backing for his effort to stay in power. He offered Arab nations investment deals in Iraq in exchange for nudging Iraqiya toward a compromise, political sources said.

35. The Deal
The U.S. urged a grand coalition that would include all factions in a power sharing arrangement. Iran encouraged Shia unity to ensure a Shia dominated future for Iraq.
With U.S. Ambassador James Jeffery in the room, the factions agreed on a formula that would name the Kurdish leader Jalal Talibani, President; the moderate Shia Nouri al-Maliki, Prime Minister; a Sunni leader of Iraqiya Osama al-Nujaifi, speaker of the parliament; and the al-Iraqiya secular leader Ayyid Allawi , the head of a yet-to-be-formed National Council for Strategic Policies, with responsibility for economic, security and diplomatic matters.

36. The Collapse?
But less than 24 hours later the deal seems to have frayed as the al-Iraqiya faction walked out of the first parliamentary session, claiming that the Shia and Kurdish groups had conspired to undermine al-Iraqiya’s influence by denying al-Iraqiya the right to name certain Sunni members to government positions (because of alleged ties to the Saddam regime) and by limiting the powers of the new National Council for Strategic Policies to a mere advisory role, with no real policymaking power. The move is seen as an attempt by Shia politicians to guarantee Shia dominance of the new government.
Al-Iraqiya leader Ayyid Allawi told CNN, "I will not be a part of this theater. This is a new dictatorship that is happening in Iraq. We think the concept of power-sharing is dead now. For Iraq, there will be tensions and violence, probably."

37. Nouri al-Maliki
He started in politics as a Shia dissident under Saddam Hussein's regime in the 1970s and rose to prominence after he fled a death sentence into exile more than 20 years ago.
He left Iraq via Jordan in October 1979 and soon moved to Syria. He left Syria for Iran in 1982, where he lived until 1990 before returning to Damascus where he remained until the 2003 US invasion toppled Hussein.
During his time abroad he became a senior leader of Dawa, coordinated the activities of anti-Saddam guerillas and built relationships with Iranian and Syrian officials whose help he sought in overthrowing Saddam.

38. Al-Qaida Return in Iraq
Sheikh Sabah al-Janabi, a leader of the Awakening Council – also known as the Sons of Iraq – told The Guardian that many of his members have not collected their salaries for the last two months and some, he believes, are now taking money from their former enemies.
The US handed over control of the Sons of Iraq to the Iraqi government in late The program since has been plagued by complaints about distrust and delays in paying salaries, as well as almost daily bombings or shootings targeting Awakening Council leaders and members.
Brig. Gen. Patrick M. Higgins commander of U.S. Special Forces in Iraq said last week, “Though weakened by the deaths of top leaders and a drop-off in foreign funding, al-Qaeda in Iraq's ‘cellular structure’ remains pretty much intact.”

39. Withdrawal Schedule in Question?
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said this week that the United States was open to keeping troops in Iraq beyond 2011 if the Iraqi government asks. His Iraqi counterpart, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Babakar Zebari, seems to be on the same wave length, "If I were asked about the withdrawal, I would say to politicians: the U.S. Army must stay until the Iraq Army is fully ready in 2020."

40. The Shia Faithful Follow Ayatollah Ali Sistani’s Lead

41. Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Al-Sistani 1930 -
Born in Mashhad, Iran into a family of religious scholars.
He came to Iraq to study in Najaf. He was accorded the senior rank of ijtehad in 1961, and was recognized as the pre-eminent Shi’a cleric in Iraq in 1992.
His office oversees the spending of hundreds of millions of dollars for education and charities.
Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Al-Sistani –
Born in Mashhad, Iran into a family of
religious scholars. He came to Iraq to
study in Najabf under Ayatollah Abul-
Qassim Khoei. He was accorded the senior rank of ijtehad in 1961, and was
recognized as the pre-eminent Shi’a cleric in Iraq in 1992.
His office oversees the spending of hundreds of millions of dollars for education and charities. 41

42. The New Iraq?