1. Unit 2
Research and Methods

2. Module 4 – The Need for Psychological Science

3. Module 4 Objectives
SWBAT: describe various falsehoods and biases most people carry, and explain how scientific thought helps to avoid reasoning errors

4. Error I: Hindsight Bias
“I knew it all along”
Tendency to believe that, after learning an outcome, one would have foreseen it
What led you and your teammates to disagree on the outcome?
What potential problems could come from the hindsight bias?
After the Columbia crash in 2003, many Americans indicated that they had long believed such a disaster would happen again; however, prior to the Challenger disaster, few people even knew it was in space
After the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, many Americans indicated they knew a future oil spill would happen despite not knowing there were oil rigs far out in the Gulf of Mexico
Jurors may be unable to forget information even when instructed by a judge, because once they know it they may soon believe they have ALWAYS known it

5. Error II: Confirmation Bias
Tendency to reject information that does not support our beliefs
Part of belief perserverence
Notion that we seek out info to confirm our beliefs and ignore information that is in conflict with our beliefs
What belief does former Speaker of the House Gingrich wish to defend?
How does his defense demonstrate confirmation bias in that clip?
Why is confirmation bias dangerous in science?

6. Error III: Overconfidence
The tendency to over-estimate our current knowledge and abilities
Richard Goranson study
Showed people a collection of anagrams and their solutions, then asked them to estimate how long it would to solve them
Estimates = 10 seconds per item
Reality = 3 minutes per item (for those of you keeping track at home, that’s 18x longer)
Dunning-Krueger Effect =
Tendency of less educated people in a field to overestimate their abilities, while more educated people in a field tend to under-estimate their abilities
EX:
bad guitarists think they’re great; great guitarists know they can always learn more
Non-climate scientists believe they are equal with climate scientists; climate scientists may doubt some of their data
People who are not high-level soccer players complain about ManU players; high-level soccer players train hours a day, minimum

7. Error IV: Gambler’s Fallacy
perceiving order in random events
EX:
Gamblers tend to believe in winning streaks and losing streaks
People will continue to pay to patch up a broken car, rather than buy a new one
Why is this such a dangerous fallacy in research?

8. Error IV: Gambler’s Fallacy
The scientific attitude =
Curious eagerness
Skeptically scrutinize competing ideas
An open-minded humility toward the natural world
Critical thinking