1. Identification of Restoration Sites for  a Fire-dependent Bird in an Urbanizing Environment
Bradley A. Pickens
North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, NCSU
Landscape Ecology Solutions, L.L.C.
Project Coauthors:
Jeffrey F. Marcus Paul J. Taillie
The Nature Conservancy North Carolina State University
John P. Carpenter, Scott Anderson
North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission
Jaime A. Collazo
U.S. Geological Survey, North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, North Carolina State University

2. South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative
Indicator-driven approach
to conservation planning
Does not explicitly incorporate urbanization or restoration potential...case studies needed

3. Pine and Prairie Ecosystem
Bachman’s Sparrow as an indicator:
Responsive to herbaceous ground cover, low basal area, regular burning, habitat fragmentation
Known to correlate with other species of concern
Distribution provides insight into the effect of urbanization and restoration potential

4. Objectives
1) Develop species distribution model for Bachman's Sparrow based on species–habitat relationships 2) Determine effects of urban growth ( ) 3) Develop scenarios to identify potential restoration sites and determine interaction of restoration and urban growth by 2050, including projections of patch size and isolation

5. + Modeling Overview Species distribution model defines habitat
Environmental spatial data +
Statistics! Validation
On-the-ground bird data
Restoration scenarios
Final species distribution
model
Calculate percent habitat within 1, 3,
5, 7 km radii
Urbanization
Statistics!

6. Presence Data
Bachman’s sparrow presence locations synthesized from North Carolina:
North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission
(n = 544)
North Carolina State University (n = 99)
- Paul Taillie, Christopher Moorman, M. Nils Piels
Virginia Tech / Camp LeJeune (n = 84)
- Jeff Walters

7. Modeling Methods
4 methodologies + heterogeneous detection = presence-only modeling
Resource Selection Function: Use vs. Availability
- 60% of data for training / 40% for validation
727 pseudo-absences placed within extent of survey data. Excluded urban developed and row crops

8. Environmental Variables
A) LANDFIRE- fire 1 km resolution
B) Mean canopy cover- 300x300 m, 900x900 m (NLCD)
C) SD canopy cover- 300x300 m, 900x900 m (NLCD)
D) Evergreen land cover- 300x300 m, 900x900 m (NLCD)
E) Row crop agriculture (NLCD)- 3 km
F) Urbanization (SLEUTH)- 3 km

9. Urban Scenarios 1) Examine urban‒fire relationship
2) Urban growth effects examined for 2010 ‒ 2090 (Terando et al. 2014)– assumed Bachman’s Sparrow are excluded by urbanization
3) Assumption! Current predicted
Bachman’s sparrow distribution is
sustained as habitat (i.e., continues
to be burned)

10. Restoration Scenarios
1) Canopy cover reduction by 30% 2) Prescribed fire everywhere except urban and row crop agriculture 3) Canopy cover reduction and prescribed fire
Longleaf pine savanna
Fire-suppressed pine forest

11. Habitat Relationships
Moderate heterogeneity
Localized canopy gaps
Moderate canopy cover

12. Habitat Relationships

13. Validation Predicted absences were 90% correct
Predicted presences were 87% correct
Camp Lejeune
Holly Shelter Game Land

14. Urban Effects 80,872 ha of predicted distribution on protected lands
No buffer
600 m buffer ~ fire suppression

19. Current Prediction

20. Urban Growth by 2050

21. Urban Growth by 2050 and Fire

22. Urban Growth by 2050 and Canopy Cover Reduction

23. The Future
-75% with urban growth
-9% with urban growth

24. Important Conclusions
Urban effect is projected to consolidate Bachman’s sparrow habitat; high loss of fragmented patches
Canopy cover reduction scenarios resulted in 2x the habitat
Restoration has potential to create larger patch sizes with less isolation compared to current conditions
Urban growth was problematic for fire scenario, but not canopy cover reduction scenario

25. Acknowledgements
Funding provided by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in support of the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative
Data sources: North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission; North Carolina State University (Paul Taillie, Christopher Moorman, M. Nils Piels); Virginia Tech/Camp LeJeune (Jeff Walters)

26. Questions? http://salcc.databasin.org Brad Pickens,

27. Wildland‒Fire Relationship
Based on LANDFIRE data (100 m resolution)