1. COST Action ES0803
Analysis of the ultimate space storm A Scientific and Operational Framework for ES0803
M. Messerotti1.2
1 INAF-Astronomical Observatory of Trieste
2 Department of Physics, University of Trieste
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

2. Aim of the Project DEFINE THE ULTIMATE SPACE STORM
SIMULATE TRIGGERS, PERTURBATIONS AND EFFECTS
ASSESS AND IMPROVE RESOURCES
DISSEMINATE OUTCOMES
WG1
WG1
WG1
WG2
WG3
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

3. DEFINE THE ULTIMATE SPACE STORM
IDENTIFY THE MOST UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS AT:
THE SUN
THE IPM
THE GEOSPACE
IDENTIFY THE MOST ADVERSE EFFECTS IN:
WG1 SG1.1
WG1 SG1.1
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

4. WORST CONDITIONS AT THE SUN
Persistent, magnetically complex, productive AR(s)
Outstanding Flares / Series of Flares
SPE(s) / SCR
Gamma, X, EUV, UV, Radio Outburst(s)
Halo/Earth-directed CME(s)
Fast Solar Wind Streams
WG1 SG1.1
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

5. WORST CONDITIONS AT THE IPM
Series of perturbations:
Propagation analysis
Radio signatures identification and analysis
WG1 SG1.1
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

6. WORST CONDITIONS AT THE GEOSPACE
Analysis of:
Magnetic coupling
Perturbations
Effects in:
Magnetosphere
Ionosphere
Thermosphere
Troposphere
Ground
WG1 SG1.1
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

7. PRODUCTS 4D MAP OF EFFECTS characterized by:
SEVERITY LEVEL
GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION
This is a key aspect to raise the awareness of funding agencies, stakeholders and decision makers
WG1 SG1.1
WG3 SG3.2
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

8. TRIGGERS, PERTURBATIONS AND EFFECTS MODELLING
SIMULATION OF THE PHENOMENOLOGY VIA AVAILABLE MODELLING RESOURCES:
CCMC
SPECIFIC MODELS
OTHER
WG1 SG1.1
WG1 SG1.2
WG2 SG2.1
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

9. PRODUCTS SURVEY OF EXISTING RESOURCES
APPLICATION OF EXISTING RESOURCES
INDICATIONS ABOUT IMPROVEMENTS AND NEW REQUIREMENTS
MAP OF MODELLING RESOURCES parameterized according to their suitability and effectiveness for the defined goal
WG2 SG2.1
WG1 SG1.1
WG1 SG1.2
WG1 SG1.3
WG2 SG2.1
WG2 SG2.3
WG3 SG3.2
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

10. ASSESS, IMPROVE & SUGGEST
OBSERVING
Existing and New Instruments
MODELLING
Existing and Required Knowledge and Resources
PREDICTING
Existing and New Techniques and Resources
WARNING
Existing and New Messaging Systems
MITIGATING
Existing and New Techniques
WG1 SG1.1
WG1 SG1.2
WG1 SG1.3
WG2 SG2.1
WG2 SG2.3
WG3 SG3.2
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

11. CONCLUSIONS The project: Fulfills the ES0803 MoU
Is not an MoU replacement, but an extended use case involving many (but not all) WG SG activities
Represents an innovative approach
Generates original scientific and applied products
Has a great potential impact to the funding agencies, stakeholders and decision makers
Is a valuable scientific basis for education and outreach
02/04/2009
MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti

12. The ultimate space storm: characterization and modelling
6th European Space Weather Week
16-20 November, Brugge, Belgium
SPLINTER MEETING
Room “Bach”
16:30-18:00
Contact:
18/09/2009
ESWW6 Brugge BE M. Messerotti

13. ESWW6 Splinter Description
Theoretically, the ultimate space storm can be defined as the set of most severe perturbative manifestations originated by the most unfavourable concurrent conditions at the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in geospace. In practice, the above definition has to be extensively and quantitatively detailed in terms of solar weather, interplanetary weather and geospace weather to asset the physical drivers and to evaluate the relevant effects. This project has been started in the framework of COST Action ES0803 "Developing space weather products and services in Europe", but it has to be expanded in order to reach its ambitious goals. In fact, the aim of this splinter meeting is to involve the interested communities in creating a scientific and operational framework to achieve the goal of quantifying via the present and forthcoming modelling tools the worst concurrent space weather effects ever experienced by technological and biological systems, as well as to produce 4D maps of such effects as a working tool for evaluating the maximum risk involved in the various geospace sub-domains and technological sub-systems. The splinter is organized as an open discussion, but short presentations on key topics/use cases suitable to stimulate the discussion are welcome. Key topics: Solar weather (Persistent, magnetically complex, productiveAR(s); Outstanding flares/Series of flares; SPE(s)/SCR; Gamma, X, EUV, UV, RadioOutburst(s); Halo/Earth-directed CME(s); FastSolarWindStreams); Interplanetary weather (Propagating perturbations identification and analysis); Geospace weather (Magnetic coupling; Perturbations; Effects in Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Troposphere-Ground); Advanced modelling tools.
18/09/2009
ESWW6 Brugge BE M. Messerotti