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2017 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON: FRANKLI IS NOW ON CENTER STAGE August 7, 2017
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: August 09, Updated August 10, 2017 More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - PPT original -
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Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s atmospheric-hydrospheric-lithospheric interactions create SEVERE WINDSTORMS
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EACH YEAR PROVIDES TEN TO 20 NEW WINDSTORM LABORATORIES
EACH HURRICANE IS A LABORATORY FOR IMPORTANT TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL LESSONS ABOUT HURRICANE DISASTER RESILIENCE.
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FORECAST FOR 2017: RETURN OF EL NINO
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THE NEW FORECAST FOR 2017: THE REMAINDER OF THE 2017 SEASON MAY BECOME MORE INTENSE
DO NOT FORGET THAT ONE STORM (E.G., LIKE 2005’S KATRINA) CAN CHANGE THE ENTIRE SEASON
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2017: THE FIRST SIX NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS
ARLENE – JUNE 9; DIED QUICKLY BRET – JUNE 13; RAIN CINDY – JUNE 19-23; LOTS OF RAIN DON – July 17, DIED IN ATLANTIC EMILY – July 17, DIED IN CARIB. FRANKLIN—August 6; a RAINMAKER in NW Caribbean and Mexico
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ARLENE
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BRET: BROUGHT RAIN TO CARIBBEAN
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JUNE 19: CINDY: EXPECTED TO BE HUGE RAINMAKER
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WED. JUNE 21: CINDY NEARING LANDFALL
As of Wednesday morning, Cindy was positioned 170 miles south of Morgan City, La. and expected to make landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border today. Tropical storm warnings spanned from San Luis Pass, Tex., to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
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WED. JUNE 21: CINDY CAUSING FLOODINNG
Tropical storm Cindy is now drenching the northern Gulf Coast (southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle) and could leave behind more than a foot of rain in some areas LIKE MOBILE, ALABAMA as it begins to move northward towards Tennessee and Kentucky.
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TROPICAL STORM DON: JULY 17, 2017
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TROPICAL STORM EMILY; JULY 17, 2017
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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN; August 6, 2017
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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN; August 6, 2017
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FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN (AUG. 7)
Tropical Storm Franklin is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and may hit Mexico twice this week as it moves towards land, most likely becoming a hurricane.
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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN; FORECAST: August 8, 2017
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FORECAST OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS
The storm is expected to clear the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday evening, but will head toward mainland Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz, making landfall on Thursday morning
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LANDFALL ON AUGUST 9 AS A HURRICANE
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AUGUST 9: STATUS Franklin is located 15 miles south-southwest of Punta Herrero, Mexico and 25 miles north-northeast of Puerto Costa Maya. Mexico. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is moving west-northwest at 14 mph.
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FORECAST OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS
Residents of the affected areas were warned to make preparations before the storm’s arrival.
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AUGUST 9: PREPARATION BOATS MOVED ON SHORE
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AUGUST 9: PREPARATION WITH TAPED WINDOWS
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AUGUST 9: RAINFALL FORE-CAST NOT AS BAD AS “KARL”
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HURRICANE KARL Hurricane Karl , the fifth and final hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, was the most destructive hurricane on record to strike the Mexican state of Veracruz 22 deaths; $5.6 billion losses.
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FORECAST OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS
The storm is also expected to affect several Central American nations including Honduras, Nicaragua, and Belize. After it passes by Mexico, it may also affect northern Guatemala
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FORECAST OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS
Some higher elevations may see mudslides triggered by the storm, which will bring 4 to 8 inches of rain to some locations along its track.
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AUGUST 10: FRANKLIN BEGINS AS HURRICANE; THEN WEAKENS
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AUGUST 10: STATUS Franklin STARTS THE DAY AS A CAT 1 HURRICANE and ends as a tropical depression. Franklin makes its mark in history as a rainmaker. No deaths reported, yet.
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