1. Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
An innovative method to work integrated towards
sustainable systems
Bas Kemp, Arnold Bregt and Tim Verwaart
Theme coordinators CAS Wageningen UR (University & Research centre)

2. Welcome Introduction Why do we want CAS?
What are the principles of CAS?
Some examples of what you can do with CAS
Udder Health
Tail biting pigs
Conclusion

3. Why do we want a CAS systems approach?
We want to develop sustainable production systems
Livestock Farming with Care
(Scholten et al. NJAS, 2013)

4. Attitudes However, systems development is complex
Heterogeneous stakeholder groups
Within groups heterogeneous ‘agents’ with different underlying drivers
‘Interaction & adaptation’ between stakeholders.
This leads to ‘no, partial or total’ adaptation for new systems developments.
‘Agent based modelling’ as model tool in CAS
Heterogeneous stakeholders is modelled as an ‘agent’ with distinct drivers (‘identity’)
In time ‘agents’ influence each other so they are adaptive
In time this leads to new developments (emergence)
Attitudes
dependent on subjective beliefs about: measures effect, associated economic implications and penalties reinforced by communication campaign

5. So, systems development is complex
Heterogeneous stakeholder groups
Within groups heterogeneous ‘agents’ with different underlying drivers
‘Interaction & adaptation’ between stakeholders.
This leads to ‘no, partial or total’ adaptation for new systems developments.

6. ‘Agent based modelling’ as model tool in CAS
Heterogeneous stakeholders is modelled as an ‘agent’ with distinct drivers (‘identity’)
In time ‘agents’ influence each other so they are adaptive
In time this leads to new developments (emergence)
farmer

7. An example

8. Udder health management improvement
Processors and governments are interested in motivating farmers to improve udder health
Tools: penalty system based on BMSCC, communication campaign
Implementation of various measures on the farm
E.g. using gloves, milking mastitis cows last
Valeeva and Verwaart., ICUHC, 2011

9. Objective
To explore the extent of adoption of desirable measures over time and the influence of drivers of farmers’ decision making and external tools on this process

10. Farmers are modelled to be diverse
ABM as integration of available knowledge on adoption of udder health measures
- Modelling multiple heterogeneous dairy farmers (agents) with simple behavioural rules of action and interaction, so as to elicit emerging collective adoption behaviour

13. Conclusions To get adoption of measures to decrease mastitis you need:
Economic incentives
Active networks of farms for low motivated farmers
At low economic incentive levels intense communication campaigns

14. An example

15. Modelling tail biting behaviour in pigs
Fattening pigs & tail biting behaviour
Complex interplay housing-pig-farmer
No existing models for analysis of pig behaviour and related welfare & production issues
Boumans et al. ISAE Benelux, 2013

16. Agents:
Variable nr of fattening pigs
Environment:
Barren/enriched pen
Space variation
Feeder(s)

17. Results: effect of density on tail biting behaviour
Tale biting outbreaks in pigs:
Can be explained by increased by underlaying drivers that lead to frustation
Farmers can learn what factors are involved in frustration(e.g. stocking rates)
Develop a new model based on important behavioural motivations related to tail biting behaviour of pigs:
Based on a conceptual model of stress as a state of motivational systems: describing internal & external stimuli causing motivation and feedback pathways (Jensen and Toates, 1997)
Including feeding motivation, exploration motivation, coping with stress, biting motivation
Use model to:
Gain insight in mechanisms behind pig behaviour
Test hypothesis of 3 types and mechanisms of tail biting behaviour (Taylor et al., 2011)
Each variation simulated in 10 runs, every run 2000 time steps

18. Tail biting outbreaks in pigs:
Can be explained by underlying drivers that lead to frustration
Farmers can learn what factors are involved in frustration(e.g. stocking rates)
External
factors
Internal
factors
Motivation
Develop a new model based on important behavioural motivations related to tail biting behaviour of pigs:
Based on a conceptual model of stress as a state of motivational systems: describing internal & external stimuli causing motivation and feedback pathways (Jensen and Toates, 1997)
Including feeding motivation, exploration motivation, coping with stress, biting motivation
Use model to:
Gain insight in mechanisms behind pig behaviour
Test hypothesis of 3 types and mechanisms of tail biting behaviour (Taylor et al., 2011)
Behaviour

19. So systems are complex and many agents with different drivers influencing the development of sustainable systems
With CAS (using ABM) we:
Learn how heterogeneity in agents lead-to or hamper emergence of sustainability
Learn which underlying drivers support or hamper emergence (virtual lab)
Can connect the different aggregation levels (instrumentation of integration social and technical domain)
Can be more successful in introducing sustainable system innovations
So systems are complex and many agents with different drivers influencing the development of sustainable systems
With CAS (using ABM) we learn how heterogeneity in agents lead-to or hamper emergence of sustainability
We learn which underlying drivers support or hamper emergence (virtual lab)
We can connect the different aggregation levels (instrumentation of integration social and technical domain)
Use of CAS can lead to more successful introduction of sustainable system innovations

20. Thanks for your attention
Complex Adaptive Systems
An innovative method to work integrated towards sustainable systems

21. Wageningen UR Systems Approach