1. Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation.
comments questions:
papers, etc:

2. The answer is cognitive dualism; but what’s the question?
The answer is cognitive dualism; but what’s the question?
Dan M. Kahan
Yale University
& many x 103 others

3. [0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”]

4. [0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”]
r = , p < 0.01

5. There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree/disagree] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
left_right
probability of answering agreeing
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Logistic re “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs. What? You don’t like my spikes? Well piss off, then!

6. “ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
left_right
probability of answering “true”
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

7. “. nuclear power generation contributes to global warming
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
probability of answering “true”
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

8. “ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
left_right
probability of answering “true”
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

9. “ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
left_right
probability of correct response
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

10. “. nuclear power generation contributes to global warming
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
probability of correct response
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Logistic regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs.

11. Ideological symmetry

12. The “prefix effect” . . .
prefix: “According to climate scientists, . . .”
“According to climate scientists, human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False]
“According to climate scientists, nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
no prefix: “ ”
“Human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions.” [True or False]
“Nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]

13. “ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
left_right
probability of correct response
without prefix
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

14. “According to climate scientists, human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
without prefix
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

15. “. nuclear power generation contributes to global warming
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
without prefix
probability of correct response
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

16. ““According to climate scientists, nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
without prefix
with prefix
probability of correct response
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Locally weighted regression. “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures.

17. “Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment 2.0

18. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
prefix
above avg left_right
prefix
probability of correct response
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
no prefix
probability of correct response
below avg left_right
no prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

19. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
with prefix
above avg left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
no prefix
probability of correct response
below avg left_right
no prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

20. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
with prefix
above avg left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
with prefix
above avg left_right
no prefix
below avg left_right,
with prefix
probability of correct response
below avg left_right
no prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

21. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
with prefix
below avg left_right
without prefix
above avg left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
above avg left_right
no prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
with prefix
below avg left_right,
with prefix
probability of correct response
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

22. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
with prefix
below avg left_right
without prefix
above avg left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
above avg left_right
without prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
with prefix
below avg left_right,
with prefix
probability of correct response
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

23. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
with prefix
below avg left_right
without prefix
above avg left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
above avg left_right
without prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
with prefix
above avg left_right
without prefix
below avg left_right,
with prefix
probability of correct response
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

24. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
with prefix
below avg left_right
without prefix
above avg left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
above avg left_right
without prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
with prefix
above avg left_right
without prefix
below avg left_right,
with prefix
probability of correct response
below avg left_right
without prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

25. Ideological symmetry

26. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism.

27. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism.

28. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism.

29. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism.

30. [0 “None at all” to 7 “Extremely high”]
r = , p < 0.01

31. There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels.” [agree/disagree] .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
-1.8 -1
1.8
left_right
probability of answering agreeing
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Liberal
Democrat
Moderate
Independent
Conservative
Republican
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Left_right
Data source: CCP/Annenberg Public Policy Cntr, Jan. 5-19, N = Logistic re “Left_right” scale comprises responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Bars denote 0.95 CIs. What? You don’t like my spikes? Well piss off, then!

32. Ideological symmetry climate-science ignorance

33. “Belief” in climate change: who you are, not what you know
= 0.88
loadings < 0.3 suppressed

34. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
with prefix
below avg left_right
without prefix
above avg left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
above avg left_right
without prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
with prefix
above avg left_right
without prefix
below avg left_right,
with prefix
probability of correct response
below avg left_right
without prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

35. “Belief” in climate change: who you are, not what you know
OSI_1.0
science comprehension (OSI_1.0) # correct

36. Conservative Republican
“Belief” in climate change: who you are, not what you know
OSI_2.0
Liberal Democrat
Conservative Republican
Colored bars denote 0.95 CIs.

37. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism.

38. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism.

39. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup.
Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism.

40. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism.

41. Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Evolution

42. Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Evolution

43. Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Evolution

44. Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Climate change
bars denote 0.95 CIs

45. Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Climate change
bars denote 0.95 CIs

46. Unconfounding knowledge & identity: Climate change
bars denote 0.95 CIs

47. OCSI scores & “beliefs” on climate change9 8 7 6 5
No. correct
No. correct 4 3 2 1
CIs denote 0.95 level confidence for estimated population means.

48. conservative Republican
OCSI scores in relation to OSI scores
liberal Democrat
Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence (percentile)
conservative Republican
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
N = OLS regression. “Liberal Democrat” and “Conservative Republican” reflect corresponding predictor values on a composite political orientation scale comprising responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-identification measures. Colored bars denote 0.95 CIs.

49. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
with prefix
above avg left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
with prefix
below avg left_right,
with prefix
probability of correct response
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

50. “Climate scientists believe that nuclear power generation contributes to global warming” [True or false]
bars denote 0.95 CIs

51. “Climate scientists believe that nuclear power generation contributes to global warming” [True or false]
bars denote 0.95 CIs

52. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism.

53. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism.

54. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Contested authority of science.

55. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
with prefix
below avg left_right
without prefix
above avg left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
above avg left_right
without prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
with prefix
above avg left_right
without prefix
below avg left_right,
with prefix
probability of correct response
below avg left_right
without prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

56. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Contested authority of science.

57. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Contested authority of science.
A3. Cognitive dualism

58. Cognitive dualism: evolution “belief”

59. Cognitive dualism: climate-change “belief”

60. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism
A3. Contested authority of science.
A4.1 The first—who are you; whose side are you on A4.2 Except in SE Florida

61. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right
without prefix
probability of correct response
above avg left_right
without prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
without prefix
probability of correct response
below avg left_right
without prefix
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

62. probability of correct response
“ human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False]
below avg left_right,
with prefix
above avg left_right
with prefix
probability of correct response
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
“. . . nuclear power generation contributes to global warming.” [True or False]
above avg left_right
with prefix
below avg left_right,
with prefix
probability of correct response
Ordinary Science Intelligence (percentile)
Locally weighted regression. “Above avg” & “below avg” Left_Right” based on subjects’ scores in relation to mean on left_right scale.

63. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism
A3. Contested authority of science.
A4.1 The first—who are you; whose side are you on A4.2 Except in SE Florida

64. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism
A3. Contested authority of science.
Q4. Which “belief” in human-caused climate change does democratic politics measure?
A4.1 The first—who are you; whose side are you on A4.2 Except in SE Florida

65. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism
A3. Contested authority of science.
Q4. Which “belief” in human-caused climate change does democratic politics measure?
A4.1. The first—who are you; whose side are you on A Except in SE Florida

67. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism
A3. Contested authority of science.
Q4. Which “belief” in human-caused climate change does democratic politics measure?
A4.1 The first—who are you; whose side are you on A4.2 Except in SE Florida

68. So what’s the question? . . .
Q1. What does “belief in” human-caused climate change measure?
A1. Not what one knows, but who one is.
Q2. Is it possible to disentangle what people know from their identities?
A2. Yup. With an appropriately formed climate science literacy test.
Q3. What real-world mechanism of cognition is the study modeling?
A3. Cognitive dualism
A3. Contested authority of science.
Q4. Which “belief” in human-caused climate change does democratic politics measure?
A4.1 The first—who are you; whose side are you on A4.2 Except in SE Florida

69. Southeast Florida’s climate political science . . .

70. Evidence-based Policy Science Communication Initiative
Soute
Evidence-based Policy Science Communication Initiative

71. www. culturalcognition.net
“I am you!” 71