1. Pre Harvest Update 2015
October 15th 2015
Gary Woodruff GSI Conditioning Applications Manager

2. What Those Resources Say About the Coming Harvest
AGENDA
USDA Resourcs
Crop Progress Report
U.S. Drought Monitor
USDA Weekly Weather Report
National Agricultural Statistics
What Those Resources Say About the Coming Harvest
How Will This Affect Drying & Storage?

3. USDA Resources Crop Progress Report U.S. Drought Monitor
Follows all crops from planting to harvest in key States (90%). :
U.S. Drought Monitor
General moisture level conditions in map form.
Link:
USDA Weekly Weather Report
All aspects of Agriculture related Weather.
Link:
National Agricultural Statistics
Complete Ag Statistics on all 50 States
Link:

4. What these Reports say about Harvest
At this point in the year the Corn
Harvested Chart & Weather issues
are the most important subjects
The timing varies based
upon what part of the country
you reside.
Declared Disaster Counties
The North’s Corn Harvest is 19% complete, behind the 5 yr. ave. by 7%. It was behind 4.7% 2 weeks ago. Maturity is ahead of ave. but almost 10% is subject to frost. The Condition Index is 16.8 points above the U.S. Average of No North States have Declared Disaster areas.
The Central region Harvest is 46% complete, ahead 4% after being behind 2.6% 2 weeks ago. Maturity is ahead & Condition Index is 11.6 points below the average. In this area nearly all of IL, IN & parts of KS & MO have declared Disaster areas.
The South’s Harvest is 80% complete, 1% ahead not 4% behind as it was 2 weeks ago. Maturity is a little behind & Condition is 8.2 points below the average.

5. How will this Affect Drying & Storage?
Last year the North, Central & South were pretty uniform, but quite different from each other. This year we are not only back to variations in Maturity and Condition within a region, but those variations are extreme with very few near the average.
Let’s look at how this year shapes up in general and then by region.

6. First: USDA Crop Report 10/9/15
* Several experts have commented that when the USDA cuts harvested acres, they raise the average yield on what’s left.  They assume that they cut the poorest performing acres.
Corn Ave. Yield” bu./acre Up .5 bu.
Corn Acreage: Million acres Down 600,000 acres
Corn Total bu.: billion bu. Down 30 million bu.
Soybean Ave. Yield bu./acre Up .1 bu.
Soybean Acreage: million acres Down 1.1 million acres
Soybean Total bu.: billion bu. Down 47 million bu.

7. Region Corn Index Ave. Compared to U.S. 18 State Ave.
Corn Condition Index - Oct 11, 2015
National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2014 planted acreage
Very
Index
State
Poor
Fair
Good
Excel
Oct 11
+/- Ave.
Oct 4
+/- Week
Colorado 3 26 58 13
281 6
Illinois 5 10 29 43
249
-26
Indiana 9 15 28 36 12
227
-48
Iowa 1 16 53 27
302
301
Kansas 8 32 46 11
254
-21
Kentucky 4 51 33
311
Michigan 2 22 17
277
Minnesota 52 37
324 49
323
Missouri 40
237
-38
Nebraska 19 21
286
285
North Carolina 30
213
-62
North Dakota 7 60
273 -2
271
Ohio 14 31 38
238
-37
Pennsylvania 23
288
South Dakota 20
297
293
Tennessee
316 41
Texas
257
-18
Wisconsin
299 24
298
18 States 48
275
Previous week
274
2014 Ave. 50
289
Green=Gain from last week
Red=loss from last week
Region Corn Index Ave. Compared to U.S. 18 State Ave.
North Ave.
16.8
Cent.
Ave.
-11.6
South Ave.
-8.2
Last Week
15.5
-11.9
-7.4
CO, MI, MN, ND, SD & WI
IL, IN, IA, KS, NE, OH, PA
KY,MO, NC, TN & TX
Oct
Corn Condition

8. Crop Conditions by County Yield Difference 2015 compared to 2014 as of 9/3/15

10. 2015 has been pretty steady with the USDA still being optimistic last Friday lowering the expected corn yield .8 bu. to from This week the Index continues steady at 274 for the 5th week in a row, but some believe this will go down as real numbers come back from harvest.

13. Oct
Corn Mature

14. Oct. 11 2015 Corn Harvest Corn Harvested - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 94% of the 2014 corn acreage]
Week Ending
State
11-Oct
4-Oct
Compared
2014
2015
Average
to 5yr Ave.
(percent)
Colorado 14 11 15 27
-12
Illinois 33 50 71 59 12
Indiana 24 29 45 43 2
Iowa 9 13 38 -9
Kansas 55 62 76 68 8
Kentucky 69 66 79 3
Michigan 6 18 22 -4
Minnesota 7 30 -1
Missouri 67 81
Nebraska 26 34 -8
North Carolina 84 85 88 91 -3
North Dakota -7
Ohio 16 35
Pennsylvania 21 32 41
South Dakota
-11
Tennessee 80 87
Texas 70 64 78
Wisconsin 23
U.S. AVERAGE
This Week 42
Previous Year
N.A. 17
-19
= Ahead or equal to last year & 5 year average
= Ahead of last year, but behind 5 year average
= Behind or equal to last year & 5 year average
Region Corn Harvested Ave. Compared to their 5 yr. ave.
North
-7.0
Central
3.9
South
0.6
Region Corn Harvest Percentage Complete
19.0
46.1
80.4
CO, MI, MN, ND, SD & WI
IL, IN, IA, KS, NE, OH, PA
MO, KY, NC, TN & TX
Oct
Corn Harvest

15. 30 Day Temperature Outlook

16. 30 Day Precipitation Outlook

19. Harvest South Corn acreage is down, conditions were dry
The South saw another reduction in corn acreage & the condition index is about 8.2 pts. below the U.S. Average of 275.
Per the drought map parts of the South ranges from a little dry to extreme drought in the area from TX to ME then GA.
Yields by State vary greatly with GA the standout.
Harvest is 80% complete, many are done. Corn maturity is a little behind, Harvest ahead 1%. The crop this year is on the dry side. So far dryer performance has been good.
Unless the dry conditions have affected grain quality, storage issues should be about normal.

20. Conditions Central
The Central region has had the most variable crop condition year most can remember.
Condition Index numbers vary from 48 points below the U.S. ave. of 275 in IN to 27 points above in IA.
In those areas hit hard by early rain, particularly Southern Illinois & Indiana much of the crop was severely stunted and today stalk height and ear development vary greatly across most fields.
The other States in the Central Region range all over compared to the U.S. average. Yes, Iowa and Nebraska are doing very well, but many question the USDA’s yield predictions.

21. Harvest Central
Harvest is 46% complete. Illinois is 71%, IA 29%. Eastern IA is ahead of Western IA.
This area is having a dryer harvest than the 5 yr. ave.
Areas in Southern Illinois, Indiana & OH have a short crop which has dried quickly.
Heavily stressed crops are having stalk and some mold issues. This should have promoted early harvest to prevent losses. For the most part this has not happened.
The question now is how much will increased losses from harvesting grain below 19% will decrease yield averages.

22. How will this Affect Storage? Central
How will this affect Dryers & Storage.
No matter the harvest moisture kernel to kernel & field variation in rain stressed States is off the map from uneven maturity. Drying issues such as fines & reduced capacity have occurred in some areas.
Running aeration to equalize kernel to kernel moisture will be essential. Mold will likely become an issue in some areas from stressed field conditions.
This year it will be very important to follow correct storage practices, not doing so will mean out of condition grain.

23. Conditions North Planting was early, but it has been Wet & Cool
The North is behind on Corn Maturity, but better than a month ago due to higher temperatures.
The Condition reports across the North are very good, near 17 points on ave. above the U.S. average of 275 and that bodes well for yields and grain quality.
Minnesota was done planting when they are normally at 50%. But Monday they were 1% behind their 5 yr. ave. for Harvest.
There has been a few small areas of frost, but only about 10% is still in jeopardy today.

24. How will this Affect Drying & Storage? North
The North is used to high moisture corn and this year looks to be a relatively easy one if the weather continues to cooperate.
Stand was not as variable as the Central region and ND & MN are seeing dryer than normal harvest moistures while reports from IA & SD are closer to normal.
If frost hits corn still not mature drying & storage will become extremely difficult.
Farmers still need to follow the storage guidelines.
So lets go over them.

25. The Universities have good resources on their web sites
Storage Tips
The Universities have good resources on their web sites
Dry the grain to a safe level.  No higher than 15% if the grain is to be left cold and marketed no later than May.  14% if the grain is to be held until next fall and 13% if it is expected the grain will be stored for more than a year. 
As grain enters the bin, run the aeration fans and continue after it is full to equalize kernel grain moisture.  This usually takes 5 to 10 days depending on the aeration level.  This equalizes the moisture and puts the grain in the best shape to store safely.
Do not fill the bin above 6” from the top of the sidewall. Doing so reduces aeration air and causes head space issues.

26. Storage Tips
Watch the ambient temperature and using the aeration fans get the temperature of the grain below 50 degrees as soon as possible.  Nearly all insect and mold activity ceases below this temperature.
It is still OK to use a spreader for older smaller bins, but for bins larger than 48’ 13 rings tall you should load directly into the bin and then every 10’ to 15’ pull out about 300 bu. of grain creating an inverted
cone, a practice known as repetitive
coring.  This removes a great deal of
the fines that accumulate in the center
improving aeration a great deal.

27. Storage Tips
As soon as possible after harvest pull the bins with peaked grain down so the center is just below the corn at the wall.  The grain will look somewhat like an M from the side.   This promotes air movement in the center.  Leveling at this point is also a good practice.
From this point follow your local Universities aeration recommendations from their web sites.  You can leave your grain cold, bringing it up to 50 degrees when the ambient temperatures reach that level if you will definitely market it by spring, but remember to bag off the fans and discharge equipment so moisture laden air cannot chimney affect into the bin.  For longer storage it is best to keep the grain relatively close to the ambient temperatures using the aeration system. 

28. Storage Tips Monitoring:
Check the grain weekly.  Climb to the top and without entering the bin observe whether there is a crust or any noticeable smell.  An increase in surface moisture usually is the first sign of problems.
If there is anything amiss start the aeration fans to attempt to stop the issue as soon as possible.  This may work in small bins under 48’ 13 ring.  It is not possible to get enough air to see a high level of success on larger bins.
The only real fix for out of condition issues which are not stopped by aeration is to unload the bin down to where the affected grain is out of the bin.  This likely means the grain will have to be marketed early and poor grain quality may receive a dock at the elevator. Prevention is always the best answer

29. Storage Tips
Digital Monitoring & Aeration Controllers:
An option for monitoring and aeration control may be the digital monitor control systems. These systems monitor grain temperature and moisture while controlling aeration. They provide web based monitoring of the grain with a complete history. They also provide , text and phone alerts for any issue.
They catch problems faster, but possibly the biggest advantage is they can bring the grain down below 50 degrees quicker than you can manually.

30. Storage Tips
Safety
Safety should be everyone’s prime concern.  A wet fall means long hours and the opportunity to fall or have injuries so be careful.
Use proper respiratory protection any time you enter a bin or work with grain.
Virtually all bin entrapments occur because someone entered the bin due to grain being out of condition. 
Following proper storage practices greatly reduces the chances of out of condition grain reducing entrapments.

31. Have a Great 2015 Harvest & Storage Season