1. Student Affairs Research & Information University of California, Davis
Assessing the Potential of Geographic Markets fka The Effectiveness of Distant Recruiting Efforts
By Gillian Butler
Student Affairs Research & Information
University of California, Davis
CAIR 2001
Sacramento, CA
SARI Report 222.A

2. Number of HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA Counties Source: CA Dept of Education

3. Number of Hispanic HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA Counties Source: CA Dept of Education

4. Number of African American HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA Counties Source: CA Dept of Education

5. Percentage of Enrolling Students Who Chose UCD Because They "Wanted To Live Near Home" Source: CIRP Survey of Incoming Freshmen,

6. Percentage For Whom Being Close to Home is “Very Important", by Ethnicity Source: CIRP Survey of Incoming Freshmen, 1997

7. Academic Image of UC Davis by Admits' Home Locations

8. Social Image of UC Davis by Admits' Home Locations

10. Number of Applications, Admits, and Enrolled Students by Marketing Region, '99 through 2000-'01 (Fall Freshmen from HS)

11. Number of Applied, Admitted, and Enrolled Hispanic Students by Marketing Region '99 through '01 (Fall Freshmen from HS)

12. Number of Applied, Admitted, and Enrolled African American Students by Marketing Region '99 through '01 (Fall Freshmen from HS)

13. Potential Eligibles:
Completed the course sequence required for admission to a UC or CSU school

14. Percentage of Total June 2000 Potentially Eligible by Marketing Region Source: CA Dept of Education

15. Percentage of Total June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Ethnicity Source: CA Dept of Education

16. Percentage of Hispanic June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Marketing Region Source: CA Dept of Education

17. Percentage of African-American June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Marketing Region Source: CA Dept of Education

18. Cesa & Carnegie “Using Logistic Regression to Predict Which Admits Will Register”
“Detailed tables of odds that focus on specific groups are helpful in planning recruitment strategies for those specific groups.”

19. Logistic Regression Models
Bivariate Logistic Regression
Two separate models: one to predict admission, & one to predict enrollment
Multiplied probability of admission by probability of enrolling to get probability of applicant enrolling.
Deviation coding: Results are comparative, not absolute

20. Maximum Possible Enrollments
Multiplied probability of enrolling by relative number of “Potential Eligibles” to derive Maximum Possible Enrollments

21. Probability of Enrolling by Number of Potential Eligibles
MODEL: All Applicants
Probability of Enrolling by Number of Potential Eligibles
UCD Local
UCD Bay
UCI
UCLA
UCR
UCSD
Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local
.25
.19
.09
.08
.13
.12
Number of Potential Eligibles in this region
14430
24465
10232
27924
9227
9891
Maximum possible enrollments
3608
4625
875
2153
1190
1221

22. MODEL: Hispanic Applicants
Probability of Enrolling by Potential Eligibles
UCD Local
UCD Bay
UUCI
UCLA
UCR
UCSD
Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local
.25
.19
.09
.13
.11
Number of Potential Eligibles in this region
1493
3067
1193
9318
2375
1828
Maximum possible enrollments
373
580
102
827
306
199

23. MODEL: African-American Applicants
Probability of Enrolling by Potential Eligibles
UCD Local
UCD Bay
UCI
UCLA
UCR
UCSD
Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local
.25
.17
.07
.14
.15
Number of Potential Eligibles in this region
558
1195
126
2391
665
403
Maximum possible enrollments
137
207 8
175 90 61

24. Conclusions The Bay Area is the strongest market for total applicants
Local and Bay Area regions combined have same potential as LA County for Hispanic enrollments
Of all southern CA markets, only LA County has strong potential for Hispanic enrollments
Bay Area has the strongest potential for African-American enrollments