1. Chapter 2 Key Issue 2 The Demographic Transition Model

2. What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?
The demographic transition model explains the transformation of countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.
In more economically developed countries (MEDC), this transition began in the 18th century and continues today.
Less economically developed countries (LEDC) began the transition later and many are still in earlier stages of the model.

3. Stage 1: Low Growth Birth Rate is high as a result of:
Typical of Britain in the 18th century and Some remote tribes today
Stage 1: Low Growth
CBR and CDR are both very high so NIR is almost 0
CBR and CDR change wildly from year to year
Primarily seen in hunter- gatherer societies
No countries located here today…some remote tribes
Birth Rate is high as a result of:
Lack of family planning
High Infant Mortality Rate
Need for workers in agriculture
Religious beliefs
Children as economic assets
Death Rate is high because of:
High levels of disease
Famine
Lack of clean water and sanitation
Lack of health care
War
Competition for food from predators such as rats
Lack of education

4. Stage 2: High Growth
CDR falls rapidly while CBR remains high, population rises rapidly
Death Rate is falling as a result of:
Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
Improved Hygiene (Water for
drinking boiled)
Improved sanitation
Improved food production and storage
Improved transport for food
Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria; Sub-Saharan Africa

5. Stage 3: Moderate Growth
CBR starts to decline while CDR continues to stay low
– Growth continues to spike upward and then levels off
Reasons:
Family planning available
Lower Infant Mortality Rate
Increased mechanization
reduces need for workers
Increased standard of living
Changing status of women
Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century;
East Asia, Latin America, Middle East
China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chile

6. Typical of USA; UK; Sweden
Stage 4: Low Growth
Typical of USA; UK; Sweden
A country reaches this point when the CBR and CDR are low and almost equal leading to an NIR of almost 0
Zero Population Growth – ZPG means no growth
Reasons for Change:
Women in workforce instead of home
Availability of Birth Control
Changes in leisure activity not suitable
for couples with children (bars, travel)
Higher education levels
Pessimism about future

7. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Stage One:
CBR- very high
CDR- very high
NIR- low Population Growth: Low
Movement from Stage One to Stage Two:
MEDC- Industrial Revolution
LEDC- Medical Revolution (Introduction of European & American
medicines to developing countries

8. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Stage Two:
CBR- very high CDR- plummets NIR- high
Population Growth: High
Movement from Stage Two to Stage Three:
Changes in social customs and improved technology

9. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Stage Three:
CBR: Drops quickly
CDR: Falling but slower than before
NIR: slows Population Growth: Moderate
Movement from Stage Three to Stage Four:
Greater gender equality, more women working and improved birth control
Stage Four:
CBR: low CDR: low NIR: low
Population Growth: Low

10. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Examples of Countries and Regions of each stage of demographic transition:
Stage One: Stage Two:
None (Some remote tribes)
Sub-Saharan Africa
Nigeria, Sierra Leon,
East Asia, Latin America, Middle East
China, Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chile Western Europe
United States, United Kingdom, Sweden
Stage Three:
Stage Four:

11. Typical of Germany, Japan, Russia
Stage Five: ???
Reasons for changes in birth rate:
Family planning
Better health
Later marriages
Improved status of women
Materialism
Birth Rate slight fall and very low.
Death Rate low and stable.
Natural increase: slowly decreases
Reasons for changes in death rate:
Good health care
Reliable food supply
Preventative Medicine
People are generally living longer

12. What are the limitations?
What limitations do you think there could be with the model?
It does not include the influences of migration
It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern
There is no time scale
Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries

13. Key Terms Demographic Transition Model Zero Population Growth
Medical Revolution