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Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

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Presentation on theme: "Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook"— Presentation transcript:

1 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook
Presentation to: Virginia’s Economic Future Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University September 14, 2016 GMU Center for Regional Analysis

2 Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 2002-2016
Annual Data Annual Month over Year (000s) Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

3 Federal Government Washington MSA
Annual Data Annual Month over Year (000s) Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Jul-16 Total: 371.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

4 Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, 1980-2015
$ Billions 82.5 TOTAL = $1,235.9 Billion 79.9 76.3 69.1 71.1 | < = $96.5B > | < = $207.9B >| < 01–10 = $563.5B | 2015 Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov GMU Center for Regional Analysis

5 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA
Annual Data Annual Month over Year Jul-16 Total: 748.3 (000s) Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

6 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month Over the Year
Source: bls.gov, codes: SMU , SMU , SMU Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

7 Job Change by Sector Jul 2015 – Jul 2016 Washington MSA
Total = 94,800 (000s) Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

8 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Jul 2015 – Jul 2016
Washington +3.0% Source: see excel file, “Top 15 Metro Employment” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

9 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery
Aug 2008-Feb Feb 2010-Jul 2016 (000s) Total -181 Total 363 Source: bls.gov, for series codes see excel file “Payroll Job Changes” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

10 Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, 2002-2016
(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

11 Job Change by Sector Jul 2015 – Jul 2016 Northern Virginia
Total 26,300 Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

12 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA
By Sub-State Area, 6.2 – DC 4.9 – U.S. 4.1 – SMD 4.0 – MSA 3.3 – NVA Source: bls.gov, use series codes in excel file “Regional Employed Residents and Unemployment” Released 4th week of the month often a Wednesday Look for revision of prior 3 months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis

13 Washington MSA Leading Economic Index
Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average Source: data provided by Ryan Price Updated Monthly Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

14 U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP
2007 – 2015 – 2020 (Annual % Change) % U.S. % Washington Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016 GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Where are we? We are growing: Advantages Headwinds
Some diversification Some catch-up Recent job growth across all wage levels Advantages Government Center International Institutions Connectivity to the World Concentration of Leaders High Quality-of-Life Diverse Population Higher Educational Services Educated Work Force High Labor Force Participation Advanced Occupational Specializations Headwinds Sequester? Further market shifts needed Cost of living Cost of doing business Mobility Access to capital Lack of regional branding, economic development cooperation Globally competitive?

16 Thank You cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis
16

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