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Barbro Wickman-Parak, 3 October 2007

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Presentation on theme: "Barbro Wickman-Parak, 3 October 2007"— Presentation transcript:

1 Barbro Wickman-Parak, 3 October 2007
The Riksbank and monetary policy - perspectives on interest rate forecasts Barbro Wickman-Parak, 3 October 2007

2 Figure 1. Labour market had tightened Per cent of labour force
Open unemployment Total unemployment Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

3 Figure 2. Labour shortages had increased Net figures
Manufacturing industry Three service industries Construction sector Retail trade Source: The National Institute of Economic Research

4 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3. The weak productivity growth was assessed as temporary Annual percentage change Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2. Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

5 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. Inflation was in line with the forecast but… Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2.

6 Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2
Figure 5. …companies’ costs rose Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

7 Figure 6. Rising food prices Annual percentage change
The Economist commodity index for foods (left scale) Food prices for consumers (right scale) Sources: The Economist, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

8 Figure 7. Rising inflation expectations Annual percentage change
CPI Households, NIER Companies, NIER Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR 2007:2. Sources: The NIER, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

9 Figure 8. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank

10 Figure 9. Expectations of the repo rate according to implied forward rates Per cent
Source: The Riksbank

11 Figure 10. Interest rate expectations 19 and 20 June Per cent
Repo rate Bank certificates/FRA 20 June 2007 Bank certificates/FRA 19 June 2007 MPR 2007:2 Source: The Riksbank

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