1. Jean-Michel Carnus, Hervé Jactel, Floor Vodde
RISK ANALYSIS
in Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA)
of Forest Resources Management M2
Jean-Michel Carnus, Hervé Jactel, Floor Vodde
INRA (France)

2. Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007
Presentation outline
introduction to Module 2
issues and context for risk analysis
material and methods
main results
conclusive remarks
Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007

3. Overall objective
To develop methodologies and tools to conduct SIA of Forest Resources Management at various scales. M2 will produce improved indicators and models, and provide data and results to M1 on the way forest management affects SIA of FWC.
Specific objectives
to characterise environmental, economic and social functions of forests and their interactions with management
to assess the impacts on the three pillars of sustainability of forest management strategies (FMS)
to analyse and assess risks associated with various FMS
to improve integration of predictive tools for sustainability assessment M2

4. Module structure and links
M0 – Scientific coordination &
management
M6 - Knowledge Transfer
M1 - Sustainability Impact Assessment
WP 2.5 Integrated modelling tools
data
base
WP 2.0 Co-ordination
WP 2.1 Sustainable Forest Management Strategies
WP 2.2
Environmental services
WP 2.3 Social values M2
WP 2.4 Risk assessment
M3 - Forest to Industry Interactions

5. Forest production processes
Regeneration
Young
Medium
Adult
Thinning: tree height m
removal of 35% of basal area
Final harvest: clear cut
when tree > 20m height
 Drainage: protection ditching
 Site preparation: scarification
Planting: 2.4 x 2.4m
with 1/0 seedlings
Pest control: beetle protection M2
Tree height = 1-2m
systematic reduction
to 1000 – 1500 trees
 Fertilization: 120kg N/ha
Thinning: tree height 14-16m
removal of 40% of basal area

6. Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007M2
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Selection of main tree species
Others
6.8%
34 mil. m3
Betula
3.8%
19 mil. m3
Castanea
2.5%
13 mil. m3
Eucalyptus
3.2%
16 mil. m3
Quercus
10.7%
54 million m3
Fagus
7.6%
38 mil. m3
Picea
27.5%
139 million m3 M2
Pinus
37.8%
190 million m3
% of mean annual increment (data source Schelhaas et al,1999)
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Context and issues (1)
M2 activities in Zvolen Eforwood week – May 2007
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Context and issues (2)
natural hazards affects sustainability of forest resources
increasing hazards occurrence and damages
forest management affects vulnerability to hazards
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10. Context EU and issues (3)
35 M m 3 damaged wood /year ( )
3 main causes (wind, fire, insects)
increasing magnitude of damages (area, volume)
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Context and issues (4)
integration of risks into forest management
need to improve damage evaluation and monitoring methods and tools (cf FWC indicator)
predict effects of management changes on risks
Work objective: to contribute to the
assessment and prediction of the effects of
forest management alternatives on risks
in European forests
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13. Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007
Method - framework
Forest
management
& operations
statistics on
prevalence
Hazards
Pests
Wind
Fire
Stand
vulnerability x
Quantitative
indicators
Tree mortality
Growth loss
Wood quality
Risk
of damage
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Method - Database on hazards
objective: rank the causes of damage on the main tree species in Europe
origin of data: agreement Eforwood - ICP Forests ( 6000 observation plots - grid of 16 x 16 km throughout Europe)
content: data from 25 countries, ca trees with one cause of damage identified
structure: ACCESS M2
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Method = analysis of ICP Forest data
The International Co-operative Programme Forests
monitors the forest condition in Europe
on around 6000 observation plots
on a systematic transnational grid of 16 x 16 km
25 out of 40 countries agreed
to share ICP data
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Method = analysis of ICP Forest data
Criteria for data selection
min. 4 trees / plot
min. 20 plots / tree species
during the period
3841 plots
tree species
14 countries
period
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Method = analysis of ICP Forest data
Agent group
code
Game and grazing
100
Insects
200
Fungi
300
Abiotic agents (drought, frost, heat, snow, wind…)
400
Direct action of men
500
Fire
600
Atmospheric polluants
700
+ % damaged trees / plot (with at least 1 damage)
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Method - Typology
Forest type level
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Method - Typology
Biome level
5 Forest biomes
Boreal
Atlantic
Continental
Mountainous
Mediterranean
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Results - Patterns
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Results - Patterns
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Results
Mean relative % of damage causes in the 26 European tree species
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Results - Patterns
Abiotic
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Results - Typology
Biome level
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Results -Typology
Biome level
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Discussion - Interpretation
Biome level
What emerges from the analysis of ICP data is that the levels and the causes of biotic and abiotic hazard prevalence in European forests mainly depend on the tree taxa, the bioclimatic zones and to a lower extent on the management regimes (silviculture rotation)
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27. Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007
Conclusive remarks (1)
prevalence of biotic hazards & damages in EU forests
tree species and biogeographic zones are most critical factors
possibility to document the FWC indicator on damage in TOSIA
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28. Brussels Conference 1-2 Octobre 2007
Conclusive remarks (2)
next steps
effects of forest management options on stand vulnerability (Nov. 2007)
data on damage intensity in regional case studies
risk scoring modules to be used in regional simulators (Sept. 2008)
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29. Thank you for your attention
Cooperation with ICP programme and national contacts is greatly acknowledged
Thank you to all M2 partners
Thank you for
your attention
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