1. Quantitative Risk Analysis LionGas LNG Terminal Rotterdam
MTEC 2007
H.Ligteringen, C.van der Tak, R.Dirkx and F.A.de Boer

2. Steps in the presentation
Introduction/ background project
Nautical- and external safety
Present methods for QRA
New QRA method in this project
Results for the LionGas Terminal

3. Introduction/ background project
4Gas initiative:
- LNG-Import terminal at the Kop van de
Beer in Rotterdam Europoort, LionGas B.V.
- Ultimate capacity 18 billion m3/year
- 1e phase (9 billion m3/year) operational in 2009
EIA-studies carried out by Royal Haskoning with assistence of MARIN
Port of Rotterdam study of capacity and safety of shipping

4. Location Europoort
Kop van de Beer

5. Lay-out LNG Terminal

6. EIA-studies Permits Most important aspects: External Risks
Environmental Impacts (noise, emissions, energy, visual impact)
Shipping safety

7. Studies on Capacity and Safety (PoR)
DNV-studies into rules at existing LNG-terminals re safety distance for shipping during arrival and departure of LNG carriers
PoR internal study of “nautical rules”
Capacity simulations to judge the effects of the nautical rules

8. Present method for QRA
Based on strong schematisation of the traffic pattern in the area concerned
(classification of ships according to cargo type, dimensions, speed; correction factors for a.o. the angle of collision)
Conversion of collision energy into hole size on the basis of analytical relations
External risk determined according to national standards

9. New QRA method in this project
Numerical computation of probability of collision or grounding by means of the model SAMSON
Numerical computation of the size of the hole in the LNGC by means of an analytical collision model, which reflects the specific hull structure of the LNGC and bow shape of the colliding vessel
Computation of the LNG spill for given hole size and its effects in terms of individual- and group risks

10. Considered trajectories upon arrival

11. Resulting probability of collision/grounding
Grounding probability is negligable
Collision probability is largest in case of a substantial angle between the vessels:
- at the crossing with the Beerkanaal
- during manoeuvring from Calandkanaal in
and out of the basin
- at the terminal

12. Computation of the hole size
Hull structure and collision angle

13. ■ Bow shape colliding vessel

14. Probability of a hole of a certain size

15. External Risk Analysis
Computation of the LNG-spill from the hole and its consequences (pool fire, gas cloud, explosion)
Quantification effects applying the Dutch code (CPR 14 E, the “Yellow Book”)
Comparison of the end results with the results according to common practice (Sandia 2004)

16. Results Individual Risk (2035)
10-7 per jaar
10-8 per jaar

17. Result Group Risk

18. Conclusions Maximum individual risk amounts to 10-7/year
(< 10-6/year), contour far from housing areas
Group risk far below the legal maximum
By application of carefully determined nautical rules the desired safety can be realised, also in very dense traffic areas, without affecting the capacity very much