1. Terrorism 2027
James J.F. Forest, Ph.D.
May 5, 2017

2. Thinking about the Future
Terrorist Group Dynamics
Who will emerge as a new terrorist group?
Why will they have chosen terrorism?
Where will they attack, and why?
How will they adapt (weapons, targets, etc.)?
Contextual dimensions
Political, socio-economic, technological, etc.
Slide 2 of 14

3. Shape of Terrorism 2027
Will radical Islam continue to be the leading motivation for terrorism in 2027? If not, what might supplant it?
Thinking forward ten years, what should policymakers be most concerned about regarding terrorism?
What will policymakers wish they had known in 2017 about the future of terrorism?
Slide 3 of 14

4. Ideological dimensions Contextual enabling dimensions
Radical Islam will very likely be the leading motivation for terrorism in 2027
Why? What would give radical Islamist terrorism more staying power than previous waves of terrorism?
Ideological dimensions
Contextual enabling dimensions
Slide 4 of 14

5. Ideological Reasons Theological resonance of grievances
Governance, secular globalization, Sunni-Shia bloodshed
Powerful vision of the Caliphate
Lack of authoritative leadership in Muslim World
Salafist networks worldwide
Opportunities for recruitment, funding
ISIS-created “external operations network”
Slide 5 of 14

6. Contextual Enablers Demographic changes & resource constraints
Emerging “youth bulge” in Middle East, Africa
Economic stagnation, limited opportunities
Political dimensions
Unresolved conflicts (Israel-Palestine; Saudi-Iran)
Communication Technologies
Spread of ideological inspiration & operational instruction
Slide 6 of 14

7. A Global Competition
Al Qaeda & affiliates vs. Islamic State & affiliates
Global jihadism as network of jihadist networks, individuals, wannabes, ideological entrepreneurs, seekers, bomb-makers, facilitators, financiers, and many others
Potential for adapting organically to changes in operating environment
Slide 7 of 14

8. Other ideologies may also inspire new or renewed kinds of terrorist attacks
“Defending the environment” attacks
“Defending the underprivileged” attacks
Escalation of Kurdish ethno-nationalist attacks
Escalation of Kashmir separatist attacks
Slide 8 of 14

9. Increase in “othering” will inspire more kinds of terrorism
Rising nationalism, isolationism, anti-globalization becomes increasingly violent
Attacks against multinational corporation targets, foreign-owned banks, franchises, universities, other entities perceived responsible for globalization, perceived threats to national sovereignty
Slide 9 of 14

10. Increase in “othering” will inspire more kinds of terrorism
Increase in attacks against ethnic minority populations in Europe, North America, Asia
Ethnic minority groups using terrorism against majority population as form of revenge
Attacks by new “defending the Shia” groups in the Levant, Gulf countries, Pakistan
Slide 10 of 14

11. What will our future selves wish we had known in 2017?
Which affiliate of IS (or AQ) will rise to the forefront of the global jihadist movement, and why?
Where should we deploy our resources (intelligence, economic, legal, etc.) in 2017 in order to prevent this from happening?
Slide 11 of 14

12. What will our future selves wish we had known in 2017?
How to curb the growth in popularity of “othering” in mainstream political and public discourse before it leads to violence?
How to ensure regime change (in Syria, Libya, Iraq, Zimbabwe, etc.) doesn’t create security vacuum, or hospitable environment for terrorist groups
Slide 12 of 14

13. What will our future selves wish we had known in 2017?
How to prevent or constrain future technological innovations by terrorists
Drones (airborne & underwater)
Robotics
Cyberattacks (to amplify fear of kinetic attacks)
Dual-use chemicals
Slide 13 of 14

14. What will our future selves wish we had known in 2017?
How to develop and nurture community resilience more effectively as part of comprehensive CT effort
Historical evidence indicates terrorists fail most often
Limited resonance of terrorist ideologies
Over-reacting to terrorism only benefits the terrorists
Slide 14 of 14

15. Discussion