1. Elections in Multi-Ethnic Cities
Political Science 61 / Chicano/Latino Studies 64
November 13, 2007

2. Urban Politics Increasingly Multiethnic
Largest cities are multiethnic
Los Angeles (city)
47% Latino; 30% Anglo; 11% Black; 10% Asian American
New York
35% Anglo; 27% Latino; 25% Black; 10% Asian American
Chicago
36% Black; 31% Anglo; 26% Latino; 4% Asian American
Houston
37% Latino; 31% White; 25% Black; 5% Asian American

3. Multiethnic Cities: A Venue for Pluralist Competition
Pluralism
A condition in which ethnic, religious, or cultural groups compete within a society
Outcomes should reflect some optimal balance of interests
Why in cities more than nationally?
Fewer super-majoritarian institutional barriers at the urban level (courts prohibit)
Legacies of European ethnic identities
Cities more explicitly distribute resources
More likely to be minority officeholders as well as cohesive minority electorates
Race/ethnic minorities not the only cohesive interests (groups the compete in a pluralist universe)

4. Multiethnic Cities, but Racially Homogeneous Neighborhoods
Most multiethnic cities continue to have high racial/ethnic segregation at the neighborhood level
Legacy of discrimination
Reinforced by
Economic segregation of housing
Intra-urban migration patterns
Consequence
Local politics continues to be more group-focused than state/national politics
Schools and school politics racially/ethnically homogeneous

5. Minorities More Likely to Live Around “Others”
“Ethnic succession”
Traditionally, immigrants move into older housing stock, near workplaces
More recently, also suburban immigrant destinations
Political consequences
Competition between immigrant populations and African Americans
Districting strategies can often be used to undermine race/ethnic politics
Limited number of offices promote competition for representation

6. Perceptions of Neighborhood Racial Integration

7. Other Opportunities for Contact in Urban Areas
Workplaces
Integration varies dramatically by profession
Houses of worship
Emergence of the megachurch
Recreational activities
Contact with other groups varies by age
Civic activities
Schools
Review – “Bowling Alone” irregular contact among people in social/recreational settings

8. Urban Politics: Los Angeles Case Study
Raphael Sonenshein’s study of Los Angeles
Minority exclusion ( )
White-led coalition denied political opportunities to Blacks and other minorities
The Bradley Coalition ( )
Blacks, Latinos, liberal whites (particularly Jews)
Coalition declined as each group sought leadership
Riordan and beyond (1993-)
Business-led coalitions
Minority communities divided, internally and from each other

9. The 2005 Mayoral Race(s): A New Model?
Two stage election (unless one candidate received 50 percent of the vote in the first election)
Primary – Group/region/ideology all represented to varying degrees
Race/Ethnicity
Valley vs. Non-Valley
Moderate vs. Liberal Democrats
With so many candidates (5), little incentive to build coalitions at first
In runoff, winner had to reach beyond his own race/ethnic group

10. Race/Ethnic Voting Los Angeles Mayoral Primary
Alarcon
Hahn
Hertzberg
Parks
Villa-raigosa
Whites 3%
23%
36% 5%
27%
Blacks 2%
54%
15%
Latinos 9%
17% 7%
64%
Asians -
59%
12% 8%
19%
Source: Los Angeles Times, Exit Poll

11. Race/Ethnic Voting Los Angeles Mayoral Runoff
Hahn
Villaraigosa
Whites
50%
Blacks
52%
48%
Latinos
16%
84%
Asian American
56%
44%
Source: Los Angeles Times, exit poll

12. Was This an Example of Raw Latino Power?
Not really – Latinos had supported Villaraigosa strongly in 2001
What changed was division in non-Latino electorates
Whites split their votes evenly
Valley versus Westside
Young Blacks and Black leaders supported Villaraigosa (and, so, the Black vote split)
Asian American electorate is the outlier
Hahn’s weaknesses as a leader more evident

13. Will the Los Angeles Experience Reappear in Other U.S. Cities?
No, at least in the short term
Multiracial political coalitions are hard to form
And, harder to sustain
When multiracial coalitions have formed, blacks have generally led
Latino and Asian Americans most underrepresented in electorate
2001, 2003, 2005—New York and Houston
Latino candidates defeated despite Latino majorities/pluralities in city population
Latino candidates defeated by undermining their White support

14. Villaraigosa Election Offers a Possible New Model
Los Angeles shares political characteristics with other major urban areas
Latino plurality, with Latino electorate making up a smaller share of voters than does Latino population of total population
Rich pool of Latino leaders at the council/school board level
Tensions – arguably fears – of Latino empowerment in African American communities
White leaders who are skilled at dividing minority communities
Divisions within Latino elites – concerns about raising prominence of others

15. Los Angeles's “Urban” Politics also Regional
Los Angeles (city) a small part of Los Angeles (region)
LA City – 3,694,834
LA County – 9,519,338
Five county region – 16,373,645
Minority concentrations in
Unincorporated Los Angeles County
Los Angeles county cities
Orange County
Increasingly, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties

16. LA Regional Cities

17. Each Area Has Different Form of Minority Politics
Unincorporated areas
Most government contracted; little local control
Few institutions to incorporate
Small Los Angeles County cities
Small city politics, tipping to Latino control
Generally, few institutions of incorporation
Orange County
North county cities, tension between immigrant and native minorities
Riverside and San Bernardino Counties
Republican inroads among Latinos
Unlikely that there will be Latino plurality areas

18. All are “Urban” Politics –Meaning of Urban Changed
In this Los Angeles, is somewhat unique
Changes the story, not just of urban politics, but also of
Resources for immigrant adaptation
Inter-group cooperation (Tuesday’s topic)
Unlikely that there will be a single path for minority politics in Los Angeles

19. For Next Time
How did race and gender interact to shape voting patterns in California’s 2003 recall race?