1. Fred Pampel University of Colorado, Boulder
FORECASTING SEX DIFFERENCES IN MORTALITY IN HIGH INCOME NATIONS: THE CONTRIBUTION OF SMOKING PREVALENCE
Fred Pampel University of Colorado, Boulder

2. Goals
Use past trends in smoking prevalence of men and women to forecast future trends in smoking mortality sex differences
Examine the contribution of smoking mortality of men and women to total mortality sex differences
Link differences in cigarette diffusion to national patterns of change in sex differences in mortality

3. Smoking-Attributed Mortality
Accounting for the Harm of Tobacco
Trancends Cause of Death Categories
Indirect Estimates (Peto et al. 1994)
Debates Over Method
Excess Lung Cancer
Advantages in Forecasting
Bias and Relative Rates

4. Data and Measures Data 21 High Income Nations
1975, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000
Ages 0-34, 35-69, 70+
Measures
Logged Male/Female Mortality Ratios
Smoking Prevalence
Cigarette Consumption
Cigarette Diffusion

5. Counterbalancing Trends
Means 1975 and 2000 (Table 1)
Smoking Mortality
Declining Female Advantage
Other Mortality
Rising Female Advantage
All Causes
Slight Narrowing

7. National Differences Logged Ratio Regressions (Table 2)
Year and Cigarette Diffusion Stage
Earlier the Start, Narrower the Gap
Trend More Negative at Later Stage
Aside on Gender Equality

9. Logged Mortality Ratios
Smoking Mortality (Table 3)
Logged Ratio of Smoking Prevalence
Explanatory Power
Future Trajectory (Figure 1)
Non-Smoking Mortality (Figure 2)
Linear Year Term
Age Differences

13. Projecting Non-Smoking Ratio
Past Trends Ages (Figure 3)
Linear Increase
Alternative Future Trajectories
Continued Increase
Declining Rate of Increase
No Change
Decrease

15. Modeling Logged Total Ratio
Determinants (Table 4)
Predicted Logged Non-Smoking Ratio
Predicted Logged Smoking Ratio
Cigarette Consumption Lagged
Logged Smoking Ratio x Cigarette Consumption Lagged
Predicted Proportional Change

18. National Differences
Country-Specific Change in Logged Total Mortality Ratio (Table 5)
Range 35-69: (Greece) to (New Zealand)
Correlation with Cigarette Diffusion
r = .590 – Early Stage Narrow
Late Stage Widen
Simple versus Smoking Forecasts
(Figure 4)

21. Conclusion Past Narrowing: Due to Smoking
Smoking-Attributed Mortality Differences: Narrowing Levels Off
Total Mortality Differences Increasingly Depend on Non-Smoking Mortality
Non-Smoking Mortality:
No Evidence of Narrowing Yet
National Differences Based on Cigarette Diffusion Crucial for Future Patterns