1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell:
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Winter 2014
March 18, 2014

2. Something I am playing with
Class News
Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14
Something I am playing with
Assignment ed
Posted
Politics of Dismissal Entry
Uncertainty Description
Model

3. The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.
State of the Climate: Global

4. Readings on Local Servers
Reading to understand relation of science to policy
Jasanoff: The Fifth Branch (Chapter 1)
Foundational References
UNFCCC: Text of Convention
Kyoto Protocol: Text
Kyoto Protocol: Introduction and Summary
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Web Portal

5. Reading Response: Due March 24, 2014
Socolow and Pacala, “Stabilization Wedges,” Scientifc American, 2006 (link)
Other versions, additional reading
Pacala and Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges,” Science, 2004 (link)
Socolow, “Wedges Reaffirmed,” Climate Central, 2011 (link)
Blog at climateprogress (link)

6. Wedges on the Web
Carbon Mitigation Princeton University

7. Structured problem solving / Redux
Today
Structured problem solving / Redux
Policy Interface 1: General considerations
Uncertainty Fallacy
Policy Interface 2: Global Mitigation
Global Mitigation

8. We arrive at levels of granularity
Need to introduce spatial scales as well
WEALTH
Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change
SPATIAL
LOCAL
GLOBAL
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
Small scales inform large scales.
Large scales inform small scales.

9. What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
ENERGY SECURITY
Election time scales
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
There are short-term issues important to climate change.
0 years
25 years
50 years
75 years
100 years

10. Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition
The details of the problem often de-correlate pieces of the problem.
What do I mean? Think about heat waves?
This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based experts, and the ability to generalize.
For example --- Detroit is like Chicago.
The consideration of the system as a whole causes tensions – trade offs - optimization
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary

11. Structured problem solving / Redux
Today
Structured problem solving / Redux
Policy Interface 1: General considerations
Uncertainty Fallacy
Policy Interface 2: Global Mitigation
Global Mitigation

12. Policy
A natural reaction to greenhouse gas emissions is to look to government, to the development of policy to address the problems that we are faced with.

13. Policy What do we look to policy to accomplish?
Some common, relevant purposes of policy
Stimulate technology: Provide incentives or disincentives for behavior. (Often through financial or market forces.)
Set regulations: Put bounds on some type of behavior, with penalties if the bounds are exceeded.
Make internal some sort of procedure or behavior or cost that is currently external.
A more abstract point of view
Represents collective values of society: what is acceptable and what is not.
Interface with the law?
Provides the constraints and limits, the checks and balances in which we run our economy.

14. Policy-climate science interface (1)
It is sensible to look at governance and policy to address climate change
It’s a “greater good” problem
It relates to natural resources and waste from the use of natural resources
It matters to economic and national security
There is precedence (Ozone and Acid Rain)
Given the relation to energy and wealth it is natural to expect there will not to be a “one size fits all solution” for climate change.
One size fits all is one of the most common traps that “managers” and “leaders” fall into.
Feeds polarization and rhetoric
Guided to one size by political interests

15. Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty
Knowledge from Predictions
Motivates policy
Policy
Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted
Uncertainty always exists
New uncertainties will be revealed
Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging

16. Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty
Knowledge from Predictions
Motivates policy
Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted
Policy
Uncertainty always exists
New uncertainties will be revealed
Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging
What we are doing now is, largely, viewed as successful. We are reluctant to give up that which is successful. We are afraid that we will suffer loss.

17. Climate change problem cannot be solved in isolation.
A Premise
Climate change problem cannot be solved in isolation.
Requires integration with all elements of society.
Requires identification of reasons to motivate us to take action
Apparent benefit
Excess Risk

18. A Conclusion about Policy
Policy cannot stand alone as our response to climate change.
Every person and every group of people will feel the impact of climate change, and therefore, by feel the impact of policy to address climate change.
In fact, some feel that there are more policy impacts than climate change impacts.
Policy has to not only be effective, but it has to include and balance the interests of all who have a stake.
Policy opportunity
Policy represents our values – our societal belief system.
It sets the bounds on behavior to benefit society

19. The Uncertainty Fallacy
That the systematic reduction of scientific uncertainty will lead to development of policy is a fallacy.
Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging.
That is – this is a political issue
What might lead to successful policy efforts?

20. Structured problem solving / Redux
Today
Structured problem solving / Redux
Policy Interface 1: General considerations
Uncertainty Fallacy
Policy Interface 2: Global Mitigation
Global Mitigation

21. The Official Policy is:
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Framework Convention on Climate Change

22. COP is the Conference of Parties
What is COP?
COP is the Conference of Parties
Parties are those countries who have signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. There are 192 signatories.
Essential Background UNFCCC

23. Michigan Observer Status
Framework Convention Parties and Observers
Parties are signatories of Framework Convention
Observers are invited to the meeting for participation, transparency, and accountability
United Nations Representatives
Intergovernmental Organizations
Non-governmental Organizations
Virtual Participation

24. Framework Convention on Climate Change (US in part of this.)
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992, non-binding, voluntary, 192 signers)
Reduce CO2 Emissions in 2000 to 1990 levels
Inventories of greenhouse gas emissions
Mitigate Climate Change
Mid-1990’s
No reduction in emissions
Evidence of warming and impacts

25. Framework Convention on Climate Change

26. Development of International Approach to Climate Change
2009
1988
1992
1995
1997
2001
2007
IPCC established
Framework Convention(UNFCCC)
Kyoto Protocol
CopenhagenAccord
The climate change issue has emerged quite quickly. When the issue first emerged in the late 1980s, the first response was to create the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, to study the problem.
The IPCC's assessment that there was a problem led to the negotiation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992.
And within a matter of a few years, countries decided the Framework Convention was inadequate, and decided to negotiate the Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997.
In just 10 years, we see a progression in the policy responses, from scientific assessment, to a non-binding aim in the Framework Convention, to binding emissions targets in the Kyoto Protocol.
Scientific assessment
Non-binding aim
Binding emissions target
Keep warming less than 2 C

27. Dangerous climate change?
What is dangerous?

28. Stern Report: Influential: Useful for thinking about problem
Draws on recent science which points to ‘significant risks of temperature increases above 5°C under business-as-usual by the early part of the next century’ — other studies typically have focused on increases of 2–3°C.
Treats aversion to risk explicitly.
Adopts low pure time discount rates to give future generations equal weight.
Takes account of the disproportionate impacts on poor regions.

29. Dangerous climate change?
Stern, 2006

30. Stern Report
Considered a radical revision of climate change economics.
If we don’t act now it will cost between 5% and 20% of gross domestic product (an aggregate measure of economy.)
Stands in contrast to many studies that usually come to numbers of closer to 1%
The idea that initiation of a policy with a slow growth rate will have little impact on the economy or environment in the beginning, but will ultimately become important when the nature of expenditures is more clear.

31. Some carry away messages
Determine what is a tolerable ceiling for carbon dioxide.
Gives cap for a cap and trade system.
Tolerable ceilings have been posed as between 450 and 550 ppm.
Ice sheet melting and sea level?
Oceanic circulation / The Gulf Stream?
Ocean acidification?
Determine a tolerable measure of increased temperature
Copenhagen Accord (2009)  2o C

32. Dangerous climate change?
Stern, 2006

33. 1992 Convention Commitments
All Parties agree to:
4.1.b. Mitigate emissions and enhance sinks
4.1.c. Promote technology development and transfer
4.1.e. Cooperate on research and observation
Developed Countries’ aim to return emissions to 1990 levels by the end of the century

34. Assessment Mid-1990’s 2001 2007 No reduction in emissions
Evidence of warming and impacts
2001
2007

35. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
“This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through…a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”
--Lyndon Johnson
Special Message to Congress, 1965
Data and more information

36. Kyoto Protocol followed 1995 assessments
Is the Kyoto Protocol still relevant?
It has officially expired
It frames much of the language we use
It sets a foundation for market-based approaches to climate change
Some countries strive to adhere to the protocol

37. Constituencies in the community
OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
Annex 1: Developed Countries and Economies in Transition
List of Annex 1 countries
Annex 2: The OECD Countries
Provide financial and technical support to Economies in Transition
Annex B: Annex 1 parties with emission targets
Least Developed Countries

38. Constituencies in the community
“G-77” and China: ~130 developing countries, work by consensus (generally represent The Africa Group)
Economic development and emission limits
Sell their potential carbon credits for profit
The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)
Tightest control on global emissions
Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC)
Protection of their economic well being

39. Constituencies in the community
European Union (EU)
Coordinated position as environmental leader with very ambitious emission reduction goals
Japan, U.S., Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Norway, New Zealand (JUSSCANNZ)
Non-EU developed countries
Cost of tackling the climate problem
U.S., Canada, Australia: Low-efficiency energy use
Japan, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand: High-efficiency energy use
These are the developed nations, and there is a big split between EU and JUSSCANNZ. Part of this is Europe vs U.S. culture, view of democracy. EU views global democracy and U.S. views a nation-state democracy with international agreements as negotiated contracts.

40. Kyoto Protocol
Kyoto Protocol (December, 1997, binding limits on or reduction of emissions)
Must be signed (155 signers (?186)) and ratified
At least 55 countries
That represent 55 % or more of emissions
Open for signatures on March 16, 1998
Went into effect on February 16, 2005
After Russia signed and ratified
55 countries represent some sort of plurality of number of countries. 55% represents a bulk of the CO2. (This is little like the House and Senate, in terms of assuring representation of the people (House) and the Union (Senate)) Russia’s signing and ratification is a big deal. Why?

41. Kyoto Protocol Requirements
Developed nations reduce their emissions 5.2% below 1990 emissions
Reduction (increases) vary across countries
Relaxed a little over the years to attract signers
(Treaty: U.S. 7% reduction: Actual: 12% higher in 2004, 30% by 2012)
Addresses “six” greenhouse gases (CO2, Methane CH4, Nitrous Oxide N2O, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride)
Commitment period
Set of other activities
Improve “local emission factors”
Inventories of emissions and sinks
Mitigation and adaptation plans
Environmentally sound technology diffusion to developing nations
Note: Kyoto goals and U.S. actual. Since CO2 is directly related to economy, not a fingerprint, to meet Kyoto would require massive changes in U.S. economy and energy use. The inclusion of six gases provides opportunity – there is granularity in how address mitigation. There is a possibility of technological controls or cap and trade systems.

42. Amount and distribution for limits and reductions
Kyoto Protocol Issues
Amount and distribution for limits and reductions
What greenhouse gases to include
Developing countries in or out of emission requirements
Trading, market-based mechanisms
Role of removing greenhouse gases
These issues were hammered out and refined in the definition of the Protocol and following years. Of critical importance is the role of developing countries. Many see this as the fatal flaw of the protocol.

43. Kyoto Protocol: Important Add ons
Market-based mechanisms
Emissions trading
Joint implementation
Clean development mechanisms
These efforts are important to make the protocol work. They make cap and trade possible. What makes CO2 the same as, different from sulfur, etc.? Is a CO2 emissions trading well posed?

44. Flexibility in Achieving Targets
“What” flexibility
Targets apply to CO2-equivalent emissions of basket of six GHGs
Can use carbon sinks (e.g. forests) as offsets
“When” flexibility
Five-year commitment period
Banking
“Where” flexibility
Market mechanisms: ET, JI, CDM
Thanks to Rosina Bierbaum

45. “Flaws” in Kyoto Protocol
Participation of Developing Countries
Large populations, large projected growth
Participation of the United States
Large portion of greenhouse gas emissions
Other “flaws”
Does not go far enough: Emission goals don’t adequately mitigate dangerous climate change
commitment period – then what?
This issue of the developing countries without limitations, especially China, India, Brazil, etc. hangs over everything. The U.S. cites this as a no go for U.S. participation, but (Rood speculation) if this was met, the U.S. would still not ratify. Another real issue is what happens after the commitment period? Does everything go back to status quo? Was this all a waste? How do we commit in the long term, and build upon successes, and improve it all. (Parson, basic definition of protocol includes the idea that the specifics change as more is learned.)

46. Climate Assessment
Perhaps the most present accomplishment of international climate change policy is assessment
Regular ~ 5 years assessment of the state of the knowledge
Provides translation of the scientific literature for policy makers

47. Generation and reporting of scientific knowledge

48. Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Assessments
Refereed Journals

49. Peer Review: Understanding Science Berkeley
Reviewers:
Anonymous
Recuses himself / herself if prejudiced
Authors Often:
Chooses amongst Editors
Recommends Reviewers
Provides names of Collaborators
Provides names of Competitors
Editors:
Often volunteer from community
Approved by publisher
Professional society
Commercial publisher
Recuses himself / herself if prejudiced

50. Standard in Science, Social Science, and Academics
Peer Review
Standard in Science, Social Science, and Academics
Part of the checking – or validation process
Designed to provide checks and balances to human behavior – supports objectivity
Slow from submission to publication  many months  years
Attacked as closed and prejudiced (East Anglia hack )
Current efforts to shake it up, open it up, speed it up

51. New efforts at “Open Review”
Peer Review
New efforts at “Open Review”
American Geophysical Union Experiment
Open Review Chronicle for Higher Ed
Some links to peer review
Cracking Open Scientific Processes, 2011
European Peer Review, 2011
Future of Peer Review, 1997
Peerless Science: Peer Review and the U.S. Science Policy, 1990

52. The world, as a whole, does not follow a peer review process
Reports
Analysis
News
Self Interests
New models of publication
Mediacommons

53. Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Assessments
Refereed Journals

54. How the scientific community communicates with policy makers
Assessment
Bringing together knowledge to evaluate that knowledge as a body of work relevant to some specific subject or application.
What can we say about climate change?
What are the gaps in knowledge?
How certain are we?
Reconcile conflicting information?
How the scientific community communicates with policy makers

55. USGCRP (US Global Change Research Program) Scientific Assessments
Some Assessments
USGCRP (US Global Change Research Program) Scientific Assessments
National Climate Assessment (current)
First National Climate Assessment (2000)
Synthesis and Assessment Reports
Climate Change Science Program
National Academy of Sciences
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

56. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (The assessment process)
How is this information evaluated, integrated and transmitted to policymakers?
Scientist-authors are nominated by governments to assess the state of the science
Published in refereed literature
IPCC CLIMATE REPORTS
2001
2007
What we know + uncertainty
Draft documents are reviewed by experts who did NOT write the draft. // Open review as well
U.S. Climate Change Science Program
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Assessments
U.S. National Assessment
Review by government officials // Final language // All agree
National Academy of Sciences
Study Process
Draft revised

57. IPCC Report Process
Note

58. A paper of interest Daniel Farber:
Review of Climate Modeling Activities and why they should have legal standing.

59. Where do assessments sit in problem solving?

60. Iconic and Fundamental Figures

61. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate
SUN: ENERGY, HEAT
EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

62. Sun-Earth System in Balance
PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH
The addition to the blanket is CO2
FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

63. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas
Data and more information

64. Temperature and CO2: The last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.
Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years.
Medieval warm period
“Little ice age”

65. The Earth System SUN ATMOSPHERE ICE OCEAN (cryosphere) LAND
CLOUD-WORLD
ATMOSPHERE
OCEAN
ICE
(cryosphere)
LAND

66. Radiation Balance Figure

67. Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)

68. 1998 Climate Forcing 2001 Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001) (-2.7, -0.6)
(-3.7, 0.0)
Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001)