1. MTEF/Joint Programming : update and current issues
DPG MTEF/Joint programming workshop
25 July 2006

2. Plan for the workshop Updates on
MTEF projections,
Joint Program doc,
Paris survey
Suggested issues for joint program
Roundtable : DP presentations on projections
Outputs (to be discussed with GOT, CSO)
Next steps for MTEF projections (a) for joint programming (b) for 07/08 budget cycle
Agreed issues/approach for programming within joint doc

3. MTEF DP projections so far…….
14 agencies + collective UN projections received so far
Analysis below based on data received 5pm yesterday
Analysis focussed on aggregate projection issues highlighted in earlier DP discussion, (need to capture planned disbursements, not just existing commitments)
Other analysis to follow, guided by today’s discussion

4. DPs Support (2006/07=100)

5. Budget Support (2006/07=100)

6. DPs Support (% of GDP, 2006/07=100)

7. Budget Support (% of GDP, 2006/07=100)

8. Total DPs Suppor t (% of GDP)

9. Budget Support (% of GDP)

10. Total External Financing, actaul + projections

11. Total External Financing, actual + projections

12. Issues for the joint program document : criteria
Adding value to individual agency plans (clarifying overall context, adjusting collective strategy, adding collective commitments)
Useful contribution achievable in time horizon for program doc
Useful for strengthening national planning and budget process, not just one off exercise to meet agency program doc requirements

13. Preliminary suggestions
Looking at key aggregates
Aid absorption/scaling up
Alignment with MKUKUTA
Alignment with JAS
Evolution of budget support

14. Aggregate financing
Profile of key aggregates : budget support, sector financing, total public, non state
Reliability : inclusion of commitments and plans. can projections be recommended by agencies and DPG overall as sound base for GOT planning?
Can the aggregates be made more reliable than the components ? Collective DPG commitment to review shortfalls,

15. Aid absorption/scaling up
At first glance, projections suggest focus may need to be on issues of scaling down !
Given recent history on external financing projections, should at least explore scenario of continued increase, and potential absorption issues at macro and sector level

16. Alignment with MKUKUTA
Analysis by sector (distribute sector projections for sector group comment?)
Analysis of match with MKUKUTA eg alignment with requirements on financing growth agenda, major infrastructure, transport sector plan, etc

17. Alignment with JAS
Paris Declaration survey tells us where we are now on implementing JAS principles
MTEF projections can tell us where we will be up to 2010, based on existing plans (indicators 5,6,8…any others?) - preliminary target for JAS implementation, basis for dialogue
Few DPs have responded on specific indicators but should be fairly easy on basis of projections

18. Budget support in the MTEF
Proportion of budget support appears to be rising (as % GDP, declining less rapidly than total external financing)
Looking for changes in expenditure/financing patterns consistent with continued budget support eg budget financing of core reform, additional domestic capital expenditure