1. Social forces theory of democracy (Bellin)
“Social forces most likely to champion democracy when their economic interests put them at odds with the authoritarian state”

2. Capitalist class interests
Conditioned by
High/low dependence on state
Example: high dependence on active industrial policies
Capitalists seek to protect economic benefits
 Low support for democratization
Democratization could undermine benefits
High/low fear of lower class
Example: high fear reflects poverty, inequality
Capitalists fear lower-class demands for redistribution
Democratization could weaken property rights
Redistributive taxes, confiscation

3. Labor/working class interests
Conditioned by
High/low dependence on state
Example: high dependence on state-sponsored union benefits
These workers seek to protect their benefits
 Low support for democratization
Democratization could undermine benefits
Yes/no “aristocratic” position
Example: “aristocratic” workers in unionized, formal employment
These workers are better off than other workers
Democratization could undermine status

4. Comparison
Bellin’s structured comparison of Korea before and after the mid-1980s:
Case
Capital: state dependence
Labor: state dependence
Regime type
Korea
Earlier period
Higher
Low
Authoritarian
Later period
Lower
Democratic

5. Comparative method: Mill’s method of difference
Compare cases with different scores on the outcome (y) variable
Tentatively reject hypothesis based on factors with same scores when outcome has different scores: (x1  y) rejected
Tentatively support hypothesis based on factors with different scores when outcome has different scores: (x2  y) supported
Cases/variables x1 x2 y
Country a
x1= high
x2= present
Y = outcome 1
Country b
x2= absent
Y = outcome 2
Same score:
reject x1  y
Different scores
Different scores

6. Comparative method: Mill’s method of agreement
Compare cases with same score on the outcome (y) variable
Tentatively support hypothesis based on factors with same scores when outcome has same scores: (x3  y) supported
Tentatively reject hypothesis based on factors with different scores when outcome has same scores: (x4  y) rejected
Cases/variables x3 x4
y outcome
Country c
x3= high
x4= present
Y = outcome 1
Country d
x4= absent
Different scores:
reject x4  y
Same score
Same score