1. Demographic situation in Europe
Marek Kupiszewski and Dorota Kupiszewska
Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research,
IOM Warsaw

2. Diverse European demographies2

3. Migration = the key to population change
Complex patterns
Extra-European migration (colonial links – now bidirectional!)
Intra EU East to West flows
Internal migration: a complex mosaic of urbanization, suburbanization , counterurbanization, further modified by life cycle preferences 3

4. Percentage change in the Old Age Dependency Ratio (pop65+/pop(15-64)
Limited Social Europe Scenario (DEMIFER)

5. Fertility drivers: Mortality drivers:
Second demographic transition: from traditional (family value led) to modern (individualistic) patterns
Low fertility trap
Postponement effect
Pronatalistic, family support and labour market policies as a modifying factors
Mortality drivers:
Steady improvement since 1840s (increase in e(0) of around 2.5 year per decade)
Wealth reduces mortality (but to a limit: obesity as a wealth trap)
What are the limits? 100? …120?...140?...more? 5

6. - Family unification (but see above) - Migration policies
Migration drivers
- It’s the economy
- Family unification (but see above)
- Migration policies
Population – limits to growth
- Malthus: access to food is the limit
Club of Rome report: access to resources is the limit
Today: pollution and environment depletion is the limit 6