1. Key issues in the assessment of older people’s housing needs in Wales 23rd November 2016

2. Who we are We work for well run evidence based public care
We are part of Oxford Brookes University
We work with national and local government, the NHS and private, community and voluntary sectors
We work across the United Kingdom
We were formed in 1987, and have a team of 40 staff and Fellows, based in Oxford and Bath
We offer a range of services including: consultancy, skills development for managers and professionals, evaluation, analysis and research, information and knowledge management, publications, workshops and seminars
State of the Nation Report on ECH in Wales
Strategic Housing for Older People Resource Pack (England focus)
Work with housing commissioners and providers.

3. Our aims
“I live in a home that best supports me to achieve my well-being.”
National Outcomes Framework for people who need care and support and for carers who need support March 2016
“Older people have access to housing and services that supports their needs and promotes their independence.”
Strategy for Older People in Wales
“We are working to make Wales a better place to live and want to ensure that people have decent, affordable homes.”
Welsh Government Housing Supply
Tenure neutral
Connection between home and well-being
Promotion of independence
But other factors: potential impact of downsizing on wider housing market, impact of unsuitable/poor housing on demand for health and care systems.

4. A system-wide rationale
“Poor housing for older citizens therefore presents significant costs for public spending in Wales each year due to factors such as thermal inefficiency, damp and mould and falls caused by poor housing design . There can also be significantly diminished social outcomes if their ability to engage in community life is compromised.”
“There is substantial demand among our older households to consider downsizing or “rightsizing”, which could have an important impact in addressing continuing challenges in the UK housing market.”
PPIW Housing for Older People in Wales: An Evidence Review June 2015
ILC/McCarthy & Stone: Generation Stuck: Exploring the Reality of Downsizing in Later life January 2016
One in three homeowners aged (32.6%) are considering or expect to consider downsizing. This figure rises to nearly one in two of all homeowners aged 55+ (48.2%) when factoring in those who have already downsized (15.6%).

5. “More of an art than a science?”
Housing need – “households lacking their own housing or living in housing which is inadequate or unsuitable, who are unlikely to be able to meet their needs in the housing market without some assistance.”
Housing demand – “the quantity and type/quality of housing which households wish to buy or rent and are able to afford; it therefore takes account of preferences and ability to pay.”
Housing requirements – “total amount and type of housing necessary to accommodate a given (or projected) population at appropriate minimum standards.”
LHMA Guide definitions
Also
Unsuitably housed households = all circumstances where households are living in housing which is in some way unsuitable, whether because of its size, type, design, location, condition, security or cost.

6. So we need to understand…
Why is older people’s housing important within our local system? How does it fit within the wider health and well-being agenda? What is its relationship to “mainstream” housing?
What should we be thinking about in terms of “housing” and “housing services” - it is more than bricks and mortar.
How do we go beyond numbers to the outcomes needed and/or delivered? It is about quality too..
What are the characteristics of the market in this area, and what does this mean for the role of the commissioner and the provider?
An initial consideration of the challenges/questions we must consider in developing approaches to local housing needs assessments.

7. The context locally
What are the local policy drivers affecting or affected by housing for older people?
What are the main challenges which affect older people locally?
How does housing impact on these, and what could it contribute?
Who needs to be involved in the assessment at a strategic level? Who is/should be interested?
How does housing for older people currently fit within the local health and well-being agenda?
First step in an assessment is ensuring an understanding of the local context.

8. Setting the scope What services are we talking about here?
Do we know what housing related services could be relevant?
What services impact on an older person’s ability to live independently at home?
Which older people do we need to know about? Are there specific groups we need to focus on?
Need to get agreement about the scope for the assessment and a rationale for this – not just buildings and not just one group of people who are all the same/have same needs.

9. Understanding demand It is more than just demographic trends
There will be local factors affecting demand, and we need to understand how
How is demand affected by the approaches taken by other services, particularly health and social care?
How do trends in other markets impact on demand for housing?
Are there patterns of demand across the locality, for example for specialist services?
Do we know what older people want now, and what they might want in the future? How is this affected by current supply?
Demand is much more than demographic trends – need to take a more sophisticated approach including understanding what choices older people locally want to make. How are their choices affected by current supply?

10. Understanding supply It is more than just numbers of buildings…
Do we know what outcomes are delivered by specific services? Do we know how cost effective services are?
What level of choice is provided locally, and how popular are these services?
Are there characteristics of local markets (including housing) which need to be taken into account in understanding future supply? Are there sustainability issues we need to consider?
Do we know what plans providers have for the future?
Again is definitely wider than number of houses – quality of outcomes is key, as is what is happening locally in the housing market and the wider health and social care market.

11. Planning for the future
What are we seeking to deliver locally?
Who needs to drive this at a strategic level? What is the role of the commissioner?
How do we develop partnerships and relationships beyond our normal housing sector?
Are there blockages in the system that we need to address?
Need to be clear what it is we are trying to deliver, and what our role is in doing this. What issues need to be addressed to enable things to move forward.

12. So, going forward…
Is there the capacity and capability nationally and locally to carry out assessments effectively?
How do we ensure guidance and good practice advice is sufficient & current?
Do we know if there is sufficient information available at a national and local level, beyond just numbers?
Do we need to build capability in other ways?
How do we improve the wider public sector contribution to this agenda?
How do we ensure planning guidance reflects the importance of older people’s housing?
To what degree is housing integrated within social care and health practice, and how can we improve this?
Two key challenges for the expert group – are we able to carry out assessments, and how do we engage more widely to enable delivery.

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