1. Tom Vander Beken & Karen Verpoest
Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Legitimate Business to Organised Crime Theory and Practice
Tom Vander Beken & Karen Verpoest
6th Colloquium on Cross-Border Crime “Crime and Economy and Crime Economy”
Berlin, 3 September 2004

2. Overview 1. Background 2. Methodology for licit market scans
3. An EU-case study of the transport sector

3. 1. Background (a)
Descriptive reports on OC needed improvement (CRIMORG 55 & 19)
Development of a methodology to draft more future oriented oc-risk assessments (Reporting on Organised crime. From Description to Explanation in the Belgian Annual Reports on Organised Crime, IRCP, 2001)
Action Plan to convert the OCSR into an annual strategic report for planning purposes - acceptance of IRCP work into EU-framework (CRIMORG 133, 2002)

4. 1. Background (b)

5. 2. Methodology for Licit Market Scans (a)
Measuring the vulnerability of legal economic sectors for organised crime, a case study of the diamond sector
(IRCP and Antwerp University, )
MAVUS (Method for and Assessment of Vulnerability of Sectors): case studies of the Transport sector and the Music Sector
(IRCP, Transcrime, Max-Planck-Institute, Cardiff University, Amsterdam University, )

6. 2. Methodology for Licit Market Scans (b)
“Vulnerability study”: identification of crime opportunities that might be exploited by OC
Focus on the task environment of criminal activity, not on the “capabilities” of “activities” of crime groups
Task environment = the legal market
How? Analysing the external environment

7. 2. Methodology for Licit Market Scans (c)
Sector Analysis
MESO
Cluster Analysis
MACRO
Reference Model Analysis
MICRO
Width Scan
INDICATORS
Depth Scan
VULNERABILITY PROFILE
Conclusions &
Recommendations

8. 2. Methodology for Licit Market Scans (d)

9. 3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (a)
SECTOR ANALYSIS
Literature/Eurostat/Sector organisations
MAIN CONCLUSIONS
important economic sector
Open market with strong competition
Non-transparent price-formation

10. 3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (b)
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Law enforcement authorities/Customs authorities/security sector representatives
MAIN CONCLUSIONS
Important role of sector organisations
Low quality of regulation
Low quantity of enforcement
Sector subjected to various crime types

11. 3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (c)
ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN: PEST
Literature/public and private sector bodies
MAIN CONCLUSIONS
Political White Paper
Economic JIT/delocalisation/bipolarisation
Social Global Village/Image of the sector
Technological ITS & techno-preventive developments

12. 3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (d)
REFERENCE MODEL
Literature/private sector
MAIN CONCLUSIONS
Business process ‘Production’
=activity outside the transport company
Business process ‘Personnel Management’
=lack of personnel-screening

13. 3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (e)

14. 3. Case-study of the Transport Sector (f)