1. Predicting Presidential Elections From 1900 until Today
Richard Hogan
GIS Day 2016
Purdue University, WL, IN
November 2016

2. U. S. Presidential Election of 1900
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
McKinley
292
65%
7,219,193
52%
Democrat
Bryant
155
35%
6,357,698
46%
Source:

3. U. S. Presidential Election of 1912
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
Taft 8
1.5%
3,486,343
23.2%
Democrat
Wilson
435
81.9%
6,294,327
41.8%
Progressive
T. Roosevelt 88
16.6%
4,120,207
27.4%
Socialist
Debs 0%
900,370
6.0%
Source:

4. U. S. Presidential Election of 1920
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
Warren Harding
404
76.1%
16,151,916
60.3%
Democrat
James M. Cox
127
23.9%
9,134,074
34.1%
Source:

5. U. S. Presidential Election of 1928
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
Herbert Hoover
444
83.6%
21.432,823
58.2%
Democrat
Alfred E. Smith 87
16.4%
15.004,336
40.8%
Source:

6. U. S. Presidential Election of 1932
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
Herbert Hoover 59
11.1%
15,760,425
39.6%
Democrat
F. D. Roosevelt
472
88.9%
22,818,740
57.4%
Source:

7. U.S. Private Production Per-capita, 1800-1940
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, (D. C., 1949).

8. U. S. Presidential Election of 1948
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
Thomas E. Dewey
189
35.6%
21,970,064
45.1%
Democrat
Harry Truman
303
57.1%
24,105,810
49.5%
States’ Rights
Strom Thurman 39
7.3% 1,
2.4%
Source:

9. U. S. Presidential Election of 1960
* Harry F. Byrd (D Va.), received 15 electoral votes from unpledged electors: 6 in Alabama, 8 in Mississippi, and 1 in Oklahoma
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
Nixon
219
40.8%
34,108,157
49.5%
Democrat
J. F. Kennedy
303
56.4%
34,226,731
49.7%
S. Democrat
Byrd* 15
2.8% 0%
Source:

10. U. S. Presidential Election of 1968
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
Nixon
301
55.9%
31,785,480
43.4%
Democrat
Humphrey
191
35.5%
31,275,166
42.7%
American Independent
Wallace 45
8.4%
9,906,473
13.5%
Source:

11. U. S. Presidential Election of 1972
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
R. M. Nixon
520
96.7%
47,169,911
60.7%
Democrat
G. McGovern 17
3.2%
29,170,383
37.5%
Source:

12. U. S. Presidential Election of 1992
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
G. H. W. Bush
168
31.2%
39,103,882
37.4%
Democrat
W. J. Clinton
370
68%
44,909,326
43.0%
Independent
H. Ross Perot 0%
19,741,657
18.9%
Source:

13. U. S. Presidential Election of 2012
Party
President
Electoral # E%
Popular # P%
Republican
Mitt Romney
206
38.3%
60,932,152
47.2%
Democrat
Barack Obama
332
61.7%
65,899,660
51.1%
Source:

14. Summary of Elections by Predictors
Elections Years
Predictors
Comments
1900, 1920, 1928
#1 Tradition/Habit
Vote as you shot; woo West
1912, 1948*, 1968
#2 Party Unity
Progressives and Socialists
1932, 1992, 2008
#3 Economic Crisis
It’s the Economy, Stupid
1960, 1948*, 1996
#4 Home field advantage
Big state slates
1972
#5 Changing political geography
Civil rights and Nixon’s plan
* Incumbent wins despite disunity but carries Border States—Truman born in Missouri