1. Regional Actors II: ASEAN and Australia
Week 6
Regional Actors II: ASEAN and Australia
ASEAN: Core of Region?
ASEAN Wavering?
Australian Role?

2. Readings…
Denny Roy, “Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or Bandwagoning?” Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 27, No. 2 (August 2005), pp
Eric Heginbotham, “The Fall and Rise of Navies in East Asia Military Organizations, Domestic Politics, and Grand Strategy,” International Security, Vol. 27, No. 2 (Fall 2002), pp. 86–125.
Defence White Paper Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century, Force 2030,

3. ASEAN+N ASEAN+3 ASEAN+1 ASEAN Regional Forum
Association of South-East Asian Nations

4. We want our neighbors be secured and rich!!
Is that Truth?
PRC’s Good Neighbor Policy

5. Balancing the Rising PRC Anyway?
Asian Financial Crisis, 1997…
Balancing the Rising PRC Anyway?

6. US Returns?

7. SEATO Southeast Asia Treaty Organization Not Really…

8. Not Really…
ASEAN Way

9. 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 Because of Power and Location

10. South China Sea Disputes…

11. Freedom of Navigation is our “Vital Interest”!
Pratas Islands
Macclesfield Bank
South China Sea is one of our “Core Interests”!

12. Why?? Also A Constructed Issue Economic Value? Strategic Value?
“Islands” too small, Landmass near by

13. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
Article121
Regime of islands
1. An island is a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water, which is above water at high tide.
2. Except as provided for in paragraph 3, the territorial sea, the contiguous zone, the exclusive economic zone and the continental shelf of an island are determined in accordance with the provisions of this Convention applicable to other land territory.
3. Rocks which cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own shall have no exclusive economic zone or continental shelf.
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

14. Taiping Dao /Itu Aba 0.49 Sq Km
The Largest and the Only “Island” in the South China Sea…….
Taiping Dao /Itu Aba
0.49 Sq Km

15. Possible Effects on EEZ Delimitation…….

16. How about the Extended Continental Shelf ……??

17. ~3,000m Depth that Matters…….

18. Strategic Passage…….?? diego garcia
diego garcia

19. Australian Role? Active Actor? Pro-Pro-Pro-US? Targeting PRC?
Crucial element: US continued presence
in the Asia-Pacific region.

20. Australian Eye Rise of China in
China has the potential to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy around 2020.
Relationship between Washington and Beijing will be of paramount importance in the Asia-Pacific region.
Taiwan will remain a source of potential strategic miscalculation.
The Government reaffirms Australia's longstanding 'One China' policy.

21. Power relations will inevitably change
Power relations will inevitably change. When this happens there will be the possibility of miscalculation.
The pace, scope and structure of China's military modernization have the potential to give its neighbors cause for concern if not carefully explained.
China has begun to do this in recent years, but needs to do more, particularly as the modernization appears potentially to be beyond the scope of Taiwan.

22. “…we would be concerned about the emergence of a security environment dominated by any regional power, or powers, not committed to the same shared goals. It would be in our strategic interests in the decades ahead that no power in the Asia-Pacific region would be able to coerce or intimidate others in the region through the employment of force, or through the implied threat of force, without being deterred, checked or, if necessary, defeated by the political, economic or military responses of others in the region….”

23. Missions
Assisting Southeast Asian partners to meet external challenges, and to meeting alliance obligations to the United States.
Humanitarian relief, disaster recovery , evacuation of our nationals, counter-terrorism, counter-piracy, and resource protection.
Conventional combat in coalition with others to counter coercion or aggression against our allies and partners.

24. Arms Buildup… X6 X3 X2

25. U.S. Base…
Possible…

26. Threat Assessment
Australia will remain a secure country over the period to 2030.
Our maritime approaches give us strategic depth.
Attacks on Australia would only be possible by forces with access to bases and facilities in our immediate neighborhood.
Australia can deterrent against threats posed by all but a handful of the world's most significant military powers.

27. .
…our neighbors in Southeast Asia sit astride our northern approaches, through which any hostile forces would have to operate in order to sustainably project force against Australia

28. Embrace the United States, Japan, China, India, Indonesia and other regional states within a community, Asia Pacific Community, by 2020.
……Not Really a “Regional” Power