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Introduction and Applications
Christopher R. Bennett Director - Data Collection Ltd.
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HDM-III International Collaboration
Collaborative international studies World Bank MIT, LCPC, TRRL, UNDP Governments of Kenya, Brazil, Caribbean, India $20+ million data collection in 4 field studies HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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HDM-4 International Collaboration
Sponsors Overseas Development Administration (ODA) Asian Development Bank (ADB) Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA) The World Bank (IBRD) Steering Committee (World Bank) Secretariat The University of Birmingham Other Contributors Technical Advisors ODA The University of Birmingham ADB N D Lea Int. IKRAM SNRA SweRoad VTI FICEM ICH (Chile) Catholic Univ. HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Limitations of HDM-III
Vehicle and tire technology in the VOC studies bears little resemblance to those of modern vehicles HDM-III does not consider: Traffic congestion (prior to 1995) Rigid pavements Many types of flexible pavements Pavement texture and skid resistance Freeze-thaw conditions Traffic safety Environmental impacts Software for DOS environment
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HDM-4 Technical Improvements
Pavements Wider range of flexible pavements Rigid pavements More maintenance types Drainage effects Freezing climates effects Road Users New vehicle types Characteristics of Modern Vehicles Non-motorized traffic Congestion effects Accidents Emissions & Energy consumption
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HDM-4 Software Improvements
Windows 95/98/NT Environment Easy to use Different levels of input data Three Application Modules Project Evaluation Network Programme Evaluation Network Strategic Planning Evaluation Better interface with Pavement Management Systems
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The HDM-4 Model Analytical tool for engineering and economic assessment of - road investments and maintenance - transport pricing and regulation Physical and economic relationships derived from extensive research on road deterioration, the effects of maintenance activities, and vehicle operation and user costs HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Road Agency Alternatives
Standards / Alternatives Policies / Strategies Norms / Options - 4 cm overlay every 8 years - 6 cm overlay every 15 years - reseal the road and postpone the overlay - reconstruct the road when IRI = do nothing - grading every 180 days - upgrade unpaved road to a paved standard HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Evaluation of Alternatives
Economic evaluation Technical evaluation Institutional evaluation Financial evaluation Commercial evaluation Social evaluation Environmental evaluation HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Transport Benefits Reduce vehicle operating cost
Savings in time of passengers and cargo Reduction of accidents Stimulate regional development Increase the comfort and convenience Better national integration National security Greater self-sufficiency Equal distribution of income Prestige of the country HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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The HDM-II and HDM-III Initiative
- Conceptual Framework Phase 1 - MIT, TRRL - First Prototype - LCPC - The World Bank - VOC Study Kenya Study - TRRL - Road Deterioration Study - Kenya - The World Bank Caribbean Study - VOC Study - TRRL - Caribbean Countries - VOC Study India Study - CRRI - New Delhi - VOC Study Brazil Study - GEIPOT - Brazil - Road Deterioration Study - United Nations - The World Bank - Texas Research Final Phase - Modeling - The World Bank 1987 HDM-III Publications - Research Documentation - The World Bank 1989 HDM-III Software - PC Computer software - The World Bank 1995 HDM System - Congestion, HDM Manager - The World Bank HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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HDM Software Fortran HDM-I 1970 Clipper / DOS Mainframe HDM-II 1975
HDM Manager Mainframe HDM-II 1975 Windows 95/98/NT HDM Manager HDM-III 1985 HDM HDM Manager HDM-III PC 1989 HDM Manager HDM-Q PC 1995 Limited Distribution HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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The Beginning More than 10,000 million dollars are spent on the highway sector each year in developing countries. Cost borne by the road-using public for vehicle operation are typically 8 to 10 times greater than agency In Europe and North America: high traffic volumes high values attached to travel time savings relatively abundant capital resources In developing countries: traffic levels often much lower values given to travel time savings are far lower acute shortage of financial resources HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Pavement Management Approaches
Condition-responsive/financial approach physical standards are set in relation to: a) perceived technical requirements, b) acceptable service levels, and c) received budget Crisis-oriented approach highway facilities are operated with little or no maintenance until obstructive failure occurs that needs extensive restoration and reconstruction work Technical-economic efficiency approach functional and technical standards are selected to minimize total road transport costs to society. HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Technical-economic Efficiency
Condition Year 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Condition Ride m/km Distress % Rut mm Structural # Safety # Index 90 Rating Poor Composed Index Current Condition Overall Index Condition Year 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Terminal Life - Current Condition - Deterioration Prediction Remaining Service Life R.L. Benefits to Society Condition Agency Costs (at 12%) Net present Value (at 12%) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 40 60 80 100 120 Year 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 - Current Condition - Deterioration Prediction - Maintenance Effects - Vehicle Operating Costs HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Total Society Costs = + ROAD AGENCY COSTS ROAD USER COSTS Construction
Maintenance Vehicle operation Passenger and cargo time Accidents Environment + ROAD USER COSTS HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Composition of Total Society Costs
CONSTRUCTION - Pavement - Structures - Furniture - Formation - Land MAINTENANCE - Routine - Pavement - Structures SYSTEM OPERATION - Traffic mgt. - Safety - Management ROAD USERS - Fuel, lubricants - Maintenance - Depreciation - Time - Accidents EXTERNAL - Accidents - Pollution - Access - Production HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Total Society Costs HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Minimizing Consumption of Resources
Infrastructure Road Users Road Agency litres hours m3 Consumption of Resources X Unit Costs = Total Society Costs HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Financial & Economic Unit Costs
Do not reflect the real scarcity value of the inputs Financial Prices Market Prices Economic Prices Shadow Prices Social Prices Developing Countries - Government Controls Taxes Subsidies Regulations - Rapid Inflation - Overvaluation of Domestic Currency HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Vehicle Characteristics
Road User Costs Model Road Geometry, Condition Driver, Traffic Flow Vehicle Characteristics SPEED Fuel & Lubricants Tire Maintenance Parts & Labor Crew Time Depreciation & Interest Passenger & cargo time COMPSUMPTION HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Paved Road Deterioration Model
Moisture, Temperature Aging Traffic, Loading Pavement Materials, Thickness Cracking Ravelling Potholing Rutting Roughness HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Vehicle Operating Costs
HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Cost-shares Under Optimal Maintenance
5000 veh/day User Costs 50 veh/day 300 veh/day User Costs User Costs Agency Costs Agency Costs Agency Costs HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Primary Features of HDM-4
Simulates deterioration and maintenance of paved and unpaved roads, in physical condition and quantities, for strategies defined by the user Simulates road user costs (speeds and consumption of physical components) Determines time-streams of road agency, road user costs, and net benefits Computes economic indicators HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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HDM-4 Limitations The model does not perform a network traffic assignment The model does not internally costs environmental impacts such as air or noise pollution The model does not address urban conditions (start/stop) The model does not evaluate cement blocks and cobblestone pavements HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Important Uses of HDM-4 Planning and Programming
Analytical support to justify funding Forecasting financial and physical needs for preserving road network Optimal maintenance strategies Economic thresholds for road improvements Tradeoffs between design and maintenance standards or options Simulating type and extent of deterioration Road use cost and damage attribution, in road transport pricing and taxation (user charges, fuel tax, etc.) Optimal axle loading and configuration Fleet modernization Planning and Programming Technical Applications Economic Applications HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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HDM-4 Applications Project evaluation Project formulation
Maintenance needs forecasting Network program formulation Network strategic planning Technical standards Vehicle policies HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Planning Medium- & long-term evaluation of options & strategies: 4-, 5-, 6- or 10-yrs Outputs: Program allocations by network & region (routine m., periodic m, rehab., betterment, etc.) - approximate quantity, cost, benefit Outcome in performance Major development schemes identified and preparation scheduled HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Planning
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Programming Annual or 2-3-yr rolling program prepared for each network, within imposed budget allocations Output: individual projects identified in each program, network & region cost and benefit estimates Network-Level Analysis HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Programming
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Project Preparation Technical Standards
Comparison of project-alternatives, economic justification: pre-feasibility study feasibility study Technical Standards Definition of road agency norms and policies levels of service recommended works trigger points HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Project Evaluation A Gravel Road Current Policy
- Routine maintenance - Gravel resurfacing when thickness of gravel is less than 50mm - Grading every 90 day A Gravel Road Proposed Project - Upgrade the road to a paved standard - After the upgrading, routine maintenance, patching 100% of the potholes, and resealing when damaged area > 20% HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Comparison of Alternatives
Evaluation Period = 20 years Discount rate = % Internal Construction Road Net Rate of Length Maintenance User Total Present Return (km) Alt Costs Costs Costs Value (%) BASE PROJ Is the project economically justified? HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Project Formulation A Gravel Road - Grading every 180 days
- Upgrade in 2001 - Upgrade in 2002 - Upgrade in 2003 - Upgrade in 2004 HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Project Economic Efficiency Frontier
15 Days 7 Days 30 Days 2004 2002 2003 2001 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days Which is the optimal strategy? HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Maintenance Needs Forecasting
- Routine Maintenance Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0 - Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0 - Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes mm Resealing when damage is > 30% Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0 A Paved Road in Good Condition - Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 4 cm overlay when IRI is > 4.0 - Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 8 cm overlay when IRI is > 4.0 HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Roughness Progression
HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Efficiency Frontier What will be the future maintenance needs? 4 cm
12 mm Patch BASE What will be the future maintenance needs? HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Network Programme Formulation and Optimization
- What are the resources needed to maintain the network? - How should the agency allocate the resources needed for an optimal maintenance program? A Road Network - What maintenance program should be implemented in case of budgetary constraints? HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Budgetary Constraints
F P A.C. L M H A Road Network Resource Constraints Strategy without Budget Constraint Optimal Strategy under Budgetary Constraints Optimization Module HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Diagnostics of the Network
HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Consequences to Society
What are the consequences of budget constraints? What is the recommended work program? HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Consequences to the Network
HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Consequences to the Users
HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Defining Implications of Different Budget Levels
HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Prioritised Work Programme
HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Technical Standards What is the optimal traffic threshold for paving?
200 300 400 What is the optimal traffic threshold for paving? HDM-4 Introduction and Applications
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Vehicle Policies How much road damage is caused by trucks?
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Role of HDM-4 in Road Management
INPUTS OUTPUTS Long Term Strategic Road Plan Road Inventory Road Condition Multi -Year Rolling Work Program HDM4 Traffic Data Detailed Project Level Appraisal Bridges Inventory DATABASES HDM-4 Policies Standards Research Design Bridges Condition
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HDM-4 System Architecture
Analysis Tools Project Analysis Program Strategy Road Network Vehicle Fleet HDM Setup Data Managers for use in other systems RUC SEC RDME Models Core Data Objects Vehicle Fleets Road Networks Work Programs Strategies Projects File Converter transfer data to external systems External Systems Databases, PMS, etc.
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The End
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