1. Total Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Conventional & Alternative Fueled Vehicles
Mario W. Cardullo, P.E.
Virginia Tech-NVGC

2. Total Life Cycle Cost Analysis
Considers all system costs - both internal and external
Internal cost normally covered
Environmental Externalities - not normally covered

3. Clean Air Goals
Historical - no strong U.S. national policy to foster use of alternative fuels.
1990s more stringent air pollution legislation and regulations
Clean Air Act (1970) and Amendments (1990)
Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs)

4. Mobile Sources of Emissions - 1988
Vehicle Type HC
NOx CO
Particulates
Lt-Duty Gasoline 92 67 91
6.5
Hvy-Duty Diesel 4 29 2 89
Hvy-Duty Gasoline 3 3 6
0.5
Lt-Duty Diesel 1 1 1 4

5. Comparison of Performance of Alternative Fueled Vehicles
Vehicle Type
Range
(km)
Top Speed
(kph)
Load Capacity
(kg)
Gasoline Powered
520
>100
500 to 1,000
Electric
100 to 200
(Battery Type)
80 to 150
500 to 800
Methanol (M85)
300 to 400
>100
500 to 1,000
Ethanol
350 to 450
>100
500 to 1,000
CNG
150 to 200
>100
400 to 900
LPG
450 to 500
>100
500 to 1,000

6. Environmental Externalities
Cost and benefits not borne by the producers or consumers
Majority of environmental externalities are negative
Externalities are troublesome in a market economy.
Value of externalities in monetary terms - monetization

7. Monetized Externalities
Makes clear and understandable comparisons between direct economic costs and environmental costs
Allows for consistent treatment and evaluation of environmental issues

8. Monetary Values Adopted in U.S.
(1990 $ per ton)
Pollutant/ Impact
California
Mass.
New York
Nevada
New Jersey
CO2 26 23
1.1 22 14
NOx
24,500
6,500
1,832
6,800
1,707
SOx
18,300
1,500
832
1,560
4,226
Particulates
5,300
4,000
333
4,180
2,477
VOC
17,500
5,300 -
1,180 - CO -
870 -
920 -
CH4 -
220 -
220 -
N2O -
3,960 -
4,140 -

9. Module Logical Interactions

10. Market Penetration Logistics Curve (S-shaped) Key Variables
Year in which penetration begins
Rate of penetration
Ultimate market size
Avoided cost

11. Balanced Introduction
Early introduction - but sustainable growth
High penetration rates aided by desirable characteristics
Large rather than constrained market opportunities
Windows of Opportunity
Technology Lock-out

12. Alternative Vehicles Must Be Competitive
Must be effectively competitive with ICs with respect to:
Costs of both fuel and vehicle
performance and technological competitiveness
Availability - including infrastructure

13. Total Life Cycle Cost Model
Total Systems Approach
Vehicle related costs
Fleet related costs
Externality costs

14. System Context Diagram
Consumers
Environmental
Infrastructure
Subsystem
Alternative Fueled Vehicle System
Governmental
Policy & Regulations
Vehicle Subsystem
Competing Systems
Economy

15. TLCC Model

16. Life Cycle Cost Summary

17. Excel Workbook

18. Sample Embedded Set

19. TLCC Input Module

20. Prior Life Cycle Cost Studies
Prior studies to date lack sufficient scope for policy analysis
Most Complete studies
Cars & Vans - Hardy, JPL (1985)
Buses - Booz-Allen & Hamilton (1990) U.S. DOT (1986)
Most studies of hybrids - limited to propulsion system components only

21. TLCC Model Development
Developed using Microsoft Excel Version 4a for Windows
Uses Workbook concept within Excel
12 Modules within LCC Workbook
Embedded data sets (EDS) with various modules
Cars & vans primarily based on JPL
Buses - based on Booz-Allen Hamilton and U.S. DOT studies

22. EDS within TLCC Model EDS 1 - Discount Factor
EDS 2 - Vehicle Curb Weight
EDS 3 - Electric Drive Component Cost Factors
EDS 4 - ICE Componet Cost Factors
EDS 5 - Fuel Cell Performance & Cost Factors

23. EDS within TLCC Model (cont.)
EDS 6 - Battery Performance & Cost Factors
EDS 7 - Power System Maintenance Factors
EDS 8 - Vehicle Insurance Factors
EDS 9 - Emissions Unit Cots
EDS 10 - Vehicle Emissions Factors

24. Cost Comparison of Passenger Vehicles

25. Trade-Off Between Environmental and Vehicle Costs

26. Types of Power Systems
Fuel Cell/Battery
ICE
Battery

27. Types of ICEs in Model Gasoline or alternative fuels Diesel Methanol
CNG
Diesel

28. Types of Batteries in Model
Low Performance
Medium Performance
High Performance
Aluminum-Air
Bipolar
Iron-Air
Lead-Acid
Lithium-Iron
Nickel-Iron
Sodium-Sulfur
Zinc-Bromine
Zinc-Chloride

29. Type of Fuel Cells in Model
Phorosphoric Acid (PAFC)
Proton Exchange Membrane (PEMFC)
Solid Polymer Electrolyte (SPE)
Trifluoromethane Sulfuric Acid (TFMSAFC)

30. Types of Motor/Controller in ModelAC
DC brushless
DC brush

31. Types of Fuel in Model Gasoline Diesel Methanol (M100) Ethanol
Methane (CNG)
Ammonia
Reformulated Gasoline
Reformulated Diesel
M85

32. TLCC Model Unique Features
Parametric analysis of battery technologies
Parametric analysis of advances in conventional vehicle technology
Environmental cost of on-board and stationary power plant emissions
Cost and performance for fuel tank variations
Operates on PC using Microsoft Excel
Model structure provides flexibility to update & expand