1. Blue Action WP5 Workshop 10-12 July 2017 GERICS, Hamburg
Mark R Payne
National Institute for Aquatic Resources, DTU-Aqua, Denmark
@MarkPayneAtWork
Kathrin Stephen
Institute For Advanced Sustainability Studies, Germany
Blue Action has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No

2. Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate
H2020 Blue-Action:
Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate
What?
Blue-Action is a research and innovations project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme
Responded to the Blue-Growth BG Arctic call
Why?
To actively improve our ability to describe, model, and predict Arctic climate change and its impact on Northern Hemisphere climate, weather and their extremes.
To deliver valuated climate services of societal benefit.
To make a significant contribution to YOPP, AR6 and C3S.
How?
Through synthesising observations
Assessing model performance
Designing and performing coordinated multi-model sensitivity experiments,
Developing innovative initialization techniques.

3. Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate
H2020 Blue-Action:
Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate
Who are we?
We bring together experts from 40 organizations in 17 countries on three continents
We work directly with local communities, businesses operating in the Arctic and industrial organizations, local authorities and maritime industries.
Blue-Action is coordinated by Steffen M. Olsen (DMI) and Daniela Matei (MPI).
When?
Blue-Action started 1 December 2016 and is a 4-year project (51 months).

4. Overarching Objective
- The concept
To actively improve our ability to describe, model, and predict Arctic climate change and its impact on Northern Hemisphere climate, weather and their extremes, and to deliver valuated climate services of societal benefit.

5. Project Structure

6. Blue Action WP5 Developing and Valuing Climate Services
Translate the skill of forecast models into products that are relevant to stakeholders
Demonstrate the value of these products to stakeholders and estimate their economic value

7. ? ? ? ”Climate data is not climate information”
- Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Climate models & modellers
End-users & stakeholders ? ?
Climate Services are Translation Services ?

8. End-Users are Key

9. Five Case Studies Applying a Common(ish) Approach
Identification of end-user-relevant climate services
Development of products in collaboration with end-users
Evaluation/Valuation of products preferably in economic terms
Dissemination to the wider sector

10. Temperature Related Mortality (TRM) (Joan Ballester, IC3)
Develop forecast scheme for thermal stress and TRM for 160 administrative units across Europe
e.g. Excess Mortality due to 2003 Summer Heatwave
Both summer and winter temperatures are important

11. Winter Tourism Industry in Lapland (Pamela Lesser, U. Lapland)
Seasonal forecasts of winter conditions to 1) allow for planning of activities & 2) compare with Alps to establish competitiveness of Lapland
Planning of snow-making and storage requirements
Planning of alternative activities

12. Polar Low Forecasts (Erik Kolstad, Uni Research)
Prediction of cold air outbreaks and polar low environments to incorporate into shipping risk assessment tools
Polar Low in Barents Sea
Safety risk map for August

13. Climate Services for Fisheries (Mark Payne, DTU Aqua)
Develop forecasts for the distribution, productivity and timing of commercially important fish stocks
Applications in scientific monitoring of fish stocks
Planning and performance of commerical fisheries

14. Impacts of resource extraction on Russian Arctic (Kathrin Stephen, IASS Potsdam)
Collaboratively develop scenarios outlining possible impacts of climate change on stakeholders in the region

15. Case Study Overview Polar Lows Hemispheric Temp. Mortality Continental
Spatial Scale
Fishing
Regional
Lapland Tourism
Arctic Impacts
Local
Weather
Seasonal
Inter- Annual
Sub-Decadal
Decadal
Climate
Temporal Scale

16. What can we learn from GERICS?
What is the optimal route to developing climate services? And how does it work in reality?
How do we get the most out of stakeholders? What is the best way to engage them?
Examples of successful (and unsuccessful) climate services
What elements make them succeed / fail?
How we generalise our results from a user to the rest of the sector? And beyond?
How do we place a value on a climate service?

17. Blue Action WP5 Developing and Valuing Climate Services

19. Blue Action WP5 Developing and Valuing Climate Services
Mark R Payne
National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Denmark
Kathrin Keil
Institute For Advanced Sustainability Studies, Germany

20. What is a climate service?
We attribute to the term a broad meaning, which covers the transformation of climate-related data — together with other relevant information — into customised products such as projections, forecasts, information, trends, economic analysis, assessments (including technology assessment), counselling on best practices, development and evaluation of solutions and any other service in relation to climate that may be of use for the society at large. As such, these services include data, information and knowledge that support adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk management (DRM) - European Roadmap for Climate Services

21. European Roadmap for Climate Services

23. Blue Action is a Blue Growth Call

24. Standing on the Shoulders of Giants

25. E.g. Principles of Climate Service Development

26. Climate Services are Translation Services
”Climate data is not climate information”
- Francisco Doblas-Reyes, IC3, Barcelona ? € ? €
Climate Services are Translation Services ?