1. Notes 14.1 - 14.2 Windham E. Loopesko INTB 3000 Fall 2013
University of Colorado – Denver
November 18-22, 2013
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

2. Week 14.1 – The demographic challenge
In the life of my dad (94), world population has increased from under 2 to over 7 billion
Forecasts – 8 billion by late 2020s, 9 by 2050
The key – total fertility rates; reproduction is 2.1 (Global South – 2.3)
Most Global North countries (plus China) are below this rate; massive growth will occur in certain African and Asian nations
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

3. Week 14.1 – Demographic stages
Traditional – high birth/death rates = stability
Early modernity – death rates fall (nutrition, medicine, wealth); population increases
Later modernity – birth rates fall as people live longer and conditions improve
Demographic change is like turning an oil tanker; trends change only over decades; Global South countries will continue to increase
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

4. Demography; environment
Week 14.1 – Global aging
World median age today is 29; by 2050, 38
By 2050, over 1/3 of the population over 60
These changes will cause huge wealth shifts among countries; younger countries will have a “demographic dividend” (= higher growth); aging countries will strain to cover the higher health care costs and lower productivity
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

5. Demography; environment
Week 14.1 – Urbanization
By 2050, the Global North will be 86% urban; the Global South 64%, with some urban areas over 40 million
95% of world population growth will take place in Global South cities (and farmland vanishes)
How do we meet the challenge of feeding 9 billion people in 2050?
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

6. Week 14.1 – Some ways to reverse demographic trends
The above demographic trends could reverse if we have:
Contagious disease epidemics
Famine (particularly in areas of Africa and Asia)
Catastrophic wars (nuclear?)
Is anyone in this class ready to accept these “cures”?
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

7. Week 14.2 – The tragedy of the commons
The “commons” – traditionally, a “common area” in the village where all can graze cattle
The plan works – as long as no one overgrazes
But each individual wants to maximize his own profit – and thus grazes as much as he can
The result – the grazing area is destroyed; collective action and self-limitation are necessary to make it work (e.g., overfishing)
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

8. Demography; environment
Week 14.2 – Energy
The average US citizen consumes 6X the average amount for a Global South citizen
Cheap oil is over; cheap gas emerging
Energy demands from the Global South are likely to skyrocket
Renewables are not yet cost-effective, and allocation of conventional energy resources remains a major concern
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

9. Week 14.2 – Environmental pollution
Primarily a Global North concern
Air pollution in Beijing (January 2013) – 40X acceptable levels
One billion people in the world suffer health problems from pollution; 20% of Global South health problems are environmentally related
Transportation a growing concern compared to industry
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

10. Demography; environment
Week 14.2 – Climate change
The average temperature has increased 1.4° F estimates for the next 100 years are between ° F. Consequences include:
Rising sea levels (coastal city flooding)
Warmer winters and droughts
More violent hurricanes
Widespread animal and plant extinctions
Spread of illnesses
More acidic oceans (changing the ecosystem)
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

11. Demography; environment
Week 14.2 – Deforestation
Forest areas the size of England are disappearing every; rainforests (and their genetic heritage) are a special concern
Not all Global South accept that the world’s forest are a “common heritage of mankind”
More than 1/3 of species threatened by extinction
¾ of fish species falling below sustainable levels
150 extinctions every day (estimate)
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013

12. Week 14.2 – Desertification
Desertification – lands previously viable for grazing and/or cultivation become deserts
Asia fishing villages – now 40 miles from coast
Water demand growing rapidly as middle class grows – in % of world population water stressed; estimates for 2050 are 45%
Demography; environment
11/18-22/2013