1. Anthony Perl aperl@sfu.ca
Lessons for the U.S. from High-Speed Rail’s Urban Impact in China
Anthony Perl
In collaboration with Prof. Qiyan Wu, Mr. Jingwei Sun, and Mr. Haoyu Hu

2. China offers an opportunity to learn from the rapid development of both mobility infrastructure and urbanization
19,000 km. HSR network built in 9 years
57 story tower built in 19 days 2

3. China’s HSR network is big enough to
reveal 3 different development patterns 3

4. Corridor Mode (CM) adopts Shinkansen mobility model: a single route linking mega-cities
Metro Tokyo million population
Metro Osaka -
18.7 million population 4

5. Monocentric Radial Mode (MRM) copies French TGV network linking regional cities through a financial and political hub 5

6. 21st century super-cities like Jing-Jin-Ji
Multicore Network Mode (MNM) is latest HSR configuration that enables commuting in
21st century super-cities like Jing-Jin-Ji
Jing = Beijing; Jin = Tianjin; Ji = Heibi Province
Population: 130 million; physical area 90% of United Kingdom;
Commuting time by HSR & other trains ≤ 1 hour 6

7. Comparing Different HSR Configurations
 China’s HSR Infrastructure
Length (mi)
Comparable U.S. Markets
Harbin-Dalian Corridor (CM)
568
Los Angeles –
San Francisco
468
Yangtze Delta Network (MNM)
910
NE Regional from Maine to Virginia
914
Jing-Jin-Ji Supercity (MNM)
710
CA corridors: Surfliner;
San Joaquin; Capitol
833
Greater Wuhan Hub (MRM)
648
Chicago to St. Louis; Detroit; Milwaukee
674 7

8. Accessibility assessment method for rail network nodes Monzon et. al
Accessibility is measured by dividing a HSR station’s importance in the network (population or GDP) by generalized travel time to other stations in the network 8

9. Corridor Mode accessibility analysis reveals HSR working to spread regional growth
Harbin – Dalian HSR corridor: 568 miles 9

10. Harbin- Dalian corridor’s accessibility distribution is boosted along the infrastructure, peaking where the HSR corridor splits into two branches 10

11. Shin 11

12. Effect of greater accessibility along Harbin to Dalian corridor enables growth in intermediate cities to lead endpoint growth
568 mile length
3.5 hour trip end to end
Shared tracks
Harbin – 3.5 million pop.
Dalian – million
Corridor is one third longer than L.A. to San Francisco , with lower population in the Chinese endpoints than in California 12

13. Could California’s HSR corridor experience a similar development effect ?
468 miles in length
2 hour, 40 minute trip time
Shared tracks
Los Angeles metro area– 13 million pop.
San Francisco – 7 million 13

14. Central Valley sits between mega-cities at either end of this corridor
From Fresno north, it’s around an hour’s trip time to Silicon Valley
HSR could spur more affordable housing for commuters to both Bay Area and LA Basin 14

15. Monocentric Radial Mode suggests HSR infrastructure can distribute growth across a region centred on a hub
648 route mi. of HSR converge at Wuhan 15

16. Wuhan’s HSR hub serves a population of over 70 million and a regional GDP of over $500 billion16

17. Wuhan’s HSR infrastructure configuration concentrates accessibility, but then spreads growth around the region 17

18. 18

19. 19

20. Could a Chicago HSR hub distribute growth more evenly around and between
Midwest cities?
Chicago metro area– 9.5 million pop.
Detroit metro area – 4.3 million pop.
St. Louis metro area – 2.9 million pop.
Milwaukee metro area – 1.6 million pop. 20

21. Multicore Network Mode infrastructure takes metropolitan development to an unprecedented scale
131,000 square mile supercity served by HSR around JingJinJi 21

22. Jing-Jin-Ji supercity accessibility is a work in progress22

23. More than just HSR infrastructure will be needed to enable HSR commuting in the “bedroom cities” of Jing-Jin-Ji 23

24. Supercity development will depend on better intermodal integration with HSR24

25. Multicore Network Mode HSR effects are most advanced in the Yangtze Delta
At high infrastructure density, Yangtze Delta has the greatest rail accessibility in China 25

26. Yangtze region accessibility via conventional rail network26

27. Yangtze Delta accessibility since HSR27

28. HSR commuting in 2014, around (and beyond) Yangtze Delta28

29. Economic growth rates are highest in areas where HSR has enabled longer distance commuting29

30. Industrial growth has been faster where accessibility is high and land costs less30

31. Could parts of California and southern Nevada function as North America’s
first supercity?
Total regional population million
Combined economic activity $1.925 trillion
What segments could be connected within one hour by rail travel? 31

32. How will China’s HSR shape urban development there and beyond?
China’s HSR-enabled supercities will incorporate three times the population of metro Tokyo, four times that of the BeNeLux region
New spatial dynamics can be expected for settlement, industry, and commerce.
Exploring the land use interaction with HSR will yield valuable lessons about how HSR can contribute to future urban development, both in China and globally. 32