1. Access to Success
How Far Have We Come?
DCO-AAA

2. 21 systems in 2013
Colorado State University System | Connecticut State University System | Kentucky Council of Postsecondary Education | Louisiana Board of Regents | Minnesota State Colleges and Universities | Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning | Montana University System| New Jersey Higher Education | Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education | Rhode Island Board of Governors for Higher Education | State University of New York | State University System of Florida | Tennessee Board of Regents | The California State University System | The City University of New York | University of Hawaii System | University of Louisiana System | University of Missouri System | University of North Carolina System | University of Texas System | University of Wisconsin System

3. Together, A2S Systems set out on a common mission of increasing the number of degree-holders in their states and making sure those degree-holders were more broadly representative.

4. The Goal: Cut access and success gaps in half for low-income students and students of color, while improving success overall.

5. The Context
Longstanding American values of equality and social mobility fast slipping away.

6. Within the US, income inequality has been growing by leaps and bounds…
n/a

7. Earnings among the lowest income families have remained stagnant, while those for high income families have soared
Updated 10/29/13 MW
The College Board, “Trends in College Pricing 2013” (New York: College Board, 2013), Figure 20A.

8. Instead of being the most equal, the U. S
Instead of being the most equal, the U.S. now has the third highest income inequality among OECD nations.
United States
Note: Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates total income equality and 1 indicates total income inequality.
Source: United Nations, U.N. data,

9. Black and Latino families have lower earnings.
Updated 10/29/13 MW
The College Board, “Trends in College Pricing 2013” (New York: College Board, 2013), Figure 20B.

10. …and less wealth. 11X 7X 20X 18X Updated 11/19/13 MW
With data from 2005; Have data going back to 1984, but see below for notes from report:
“Notes: Blacks and whites include Hispanics. The Survey of Income and Program Participation was redesigned for the 1996 panel. The redesign may have affected the comparability of the data from 1998 and later years with the data from earlier panels”
Pew Research Center, “Wealth Gaps Rise to Record Highs Between Whites, Blacks and Hispanics”, 2011.

11. And it’s not just inequality in wages and wealth, but problems with economic mobility as well.

12. U.S. intergenerational mobility was increasing until 1980, but has sharply declined since.
From the Aaronson and Mazumder report: “In particular, mobility increased from 1940 to 1980, but fell sharply during the 1980s and failed to revert, perhaps even continued to decline, in the 1990s.”
From the Aaronson and Mazumder report, the figure for 2000 (0.58) is not statistically significant. The figure for 1990 (0.46) almost mirrors the number cited for the US in the cross-country analysis on the next slide.
Source: Daniel Aaronson and Bhashkar Mazumder. Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the U.S.,1940 to Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP : Dec

13. The US now has one of lowest rates of intergenerational mobility
Checked 1/8/14 JY
Updated 11/14/13 MW
Source: Corak, Miles. Chasing the Same Dream, Climbing Different Ladders. Economic Mobility Project; Pew Charitable Trusts, 2010.

14. But at the individual level, it really is.
At macro level, better and more equal education—especially postsecondary education--is not the only thing we have to do to improve opportunity and mobility in America.
But at the individual level, it really is.
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15. Overwhelming message about what matters in turning this around?
Education.
“Among those who have finished four years of college, there is no racial gap in economic mobility. Both whites and blacks experience very high rates.”
Source: Upward Intergenerational Mobility in the US. PewTrusts.

16. College-educated adults earn more…
Checked 1/8/14 JY
Updated 11/19/13 MW
Note: Earnings data are based on full-time, year-round workers age 25 and older
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, PINC-03. Educational Attainment--People 25 Years Old and Over, by Total Money Earnings in 2012, Work Experience in 2012, Age, Race, Hispanic Origin, and Sex,

17. And are less likely to be unemployed
Checked 1/8/14 JY
Updated 11/19/13 MW
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment status of the civilian non-institutional population 25 years and over by educational attainment, sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, 2012.

18. They also stand out on the other things we value.

19. College graduates more likely to vote
Note: Data include both those who are and are not registered to vote.
Source: Education Pays 2013, The College Board

20. College graduates more likely to volunteer
Note: Data represent percentage of total population that reported volunteering from September 2008 to September 2009
Source: Education Pays 2013, The College Board

21. College Grads of all races far more likely to be in “Very Good” or “Excellent” Health
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Commission for a Healthier America, 2009

22. College Grads Even Have Better Mental Health
Source: Gallup, “Strong Relationship Between Income and Mental Health” (2007)

23. There is one road up, and that road runs through us.

24. Yet here, too, we are falling behind the rest of the developed world.

25. Among adults overall, we’re relatively strong in educational attainment
United States
OECD Average
Checked 1/8/14 JY
Updated 10/23/13 MW
Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years, are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs)
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2013 (2011 data).

26. But our world standing drops to 11th for younger adults
United States
OECD Average
Checked 1/8/14 JY
Updated 10/21/13 Mary
Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years, are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs)
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2013 (2011 data).

27. And we’re near the bottom in intergenerational progress
OECD Average
United States
Checked 1/8/14 JY
Not updated for 2013 report. Data not available. 10/29/13 MW
Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years, are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs)
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2012 (2010 data).

28. So, what about A2S? How are we doing in turning those patterns around?

29. Let’s look at Access

30. Enrollment of Pell students has increased at 4yr and 2yr institutions
PELL ENROLLMENT
Enrollment of Pell students has increased at 4yr and 2yr institutions
65%
100%
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included in enrollment #s
Enrollment of Pell students at 4yr institutions has increased 65%, while overall enrollment has increased by 17%.
Enrollment of Pell students at 2yr institutions has more than doubled, while overall enrollment has only increased 22%.
The % of total undergraduate enrollment receiving Pell Grants increased from 24% in to 37% in From about 5 million recipients to over 9 million. (Source: College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2013). Comparing this to slide 8 – A2S systems have had slightly larger proportion of Pell recipients than national proportion over time.
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included in enrollment #s
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

31. Enrollment of URM students has also increased
URM ENROLLMENT
Enrollment of URM students has also increased
85%
40% BA
Freshmen
Actual change = 21,471 or 35% ; increased from 25% to 31% of student pop.
Transfers
Actual change = 21,903 or 48%; increased from 27% to 32% of student pop. AA
Actual change = 20,956 or 85%; grew from 21% to 31% of pop.
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included in enrollment #s
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

32. PELL ACCESS – 4YR
Pell share has increased; increases were larger than those among HS grads, so gaps have narrowed or closed at 4yr institutions 5
No gap
HS GRAD LOW INCOME
PELL 13 6
PELL
HS GRAD LOW INCOME
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

33. URM ACCESS – 4YR
URM share has increased, but about the same as high school graduates, so gaps didn’t change much at 4yr institutions 7 6
URM
HS GRAD URM 6 7
HS GRAD URM
URM
FTF
gap = 7 pts
gap = 6 pts
GAP NARROWED TT
gap = 6 pts
gap = 7 pts
GAP WIDENED – as population of states became more diverse, Universities did not keep up with transfer students (older)
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

34. PELL & URM ACCESS – 2YR
URM and Pell share has increased at 2yr institutions—and at a higher rate than among high school grads—so access gaps have closed
No gap
No gap 1
HS GRAD LOW INC
HS GRAD LOW INC
PELL
PELL
HS GRAD URM
URM
HS GRAD URM
URM
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

35. Access Summary
A2S systems are enrolling more Pell and URM students in both 2- and 4-year colleges;
Pell and URM students have increased as a share of the student body in both 2- and 4-year colleges;
Increases in Pell enrollments at four-year institutions outpaced increases in low-income high school grads, so access goals were met;
Increases in URM students at four-year institutions did not significantly outpace increases in URM high school grads, so gap goals were not met;
At two-year institutions, access goals were met for Pell and URM students.
Trend summary slide

36. What about success at four-year institutions?

37. PELL SUCCESS – 4YR
Grad rate for Pell freshmen has gone up slightly, but increases among non-Pell freshmen were larger, widening gaps 15 13
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

38. URM SUCCESS – 4YR
URM freshmen grad rates have increased, but increases among other students were larger, so the gap has widened 16 14
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

39. PELL SUCCESS – 4YR
Grad rate for Pell transfers has remained flat, while rate for other students increased—creating a new gap 4
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

40. Grad rates for both groups of transfers increased, no gap narrowing
URM SUCCESS – 4YR
Grad rates for both groups of transfers increased, no gap narrowing 6
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

41. What about success at two-year institutions?

42. PELL SUCCESS – 2YR
In 2-year colleges, grad have decreased for both Pell students and non-Pell, but declines were bigger for Pell students so the success gap widened 5 2
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

43. URM SUCCESS – 2YR
Graduation rates for URM and other students dropped then increased slowly, gap did not narrow 16 17
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

44. Success Summary
In four-year institutions, success rates for Pell and URM students increased;
Gains were bigger for non-Pell and non-URM students, so success gaps generally widened at four-year institutions.
At two-year institutions, success rates for Pell and URM students decreased slightly;
No progress in gap-closing at two-year institutions.
Trend summary slide

45. That was a look at the A2S Initiative as a whole.
How do these trends look for systems in the EDI network?
Note: These only include EDI systems. For all Pell categories, there are 10 systems (NJ does not submit Pell data). For URM categories, there are 11.

46. ACCESS – 4YR
Nearly all EDI Network systems enrolled more Pell and URM students at 4yr institutions
Note: New Jersey does not submit Pell data, so the total # of systems for Pell will be 10, while the total # for URM is 11.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

47. ACCESS GAPS – 4YR
A majority of EDI Network systems met goals or narrowed access gaps at 4yr institutions
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

48. ACCESS – 2YR
Nearly all EDI Network systems enrolled more Pell and URM students at 2yr institutions
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

49. Many systems met access gap goals at 2yr institutions
ACCESS GAPS – 2YR
Many systems met access gap goals at 2yr institutions
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

50. Summary: System-level Progress in Improving Access
Nearly all EDI systems enrolled more low-income students and students of color at both four-year and two-year institutions;
Many systems narrowed access gaps by at least half at two-year institutions;
A majority of systems met goals or at least narrowed access gaps at four-year institutions.

51. SUCCESS – 4YR
Most EDI systems raised success rates for Pell and URM Bachelor’s students…
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

52. …but success gaps widened at a majority of systems
SUCCESS GAPS – 4YR
…but success gaps widened at a majority of systems
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

53. SUCCESS – 2YR
A majority of EDI systems raised success rates for Pell and URM students in 2- year colleges…
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

54. ...but fewer made progress in closing success gaps in 2-year colleges
SUCCESS GAPS – 2YR
...but fewer made progress in closing success gaps in 2-year colleges
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

55. Summary: System-level Progress in Improving Student Success
Most EDI systems raised success rates for Pell and URM students over time;
But few made any progress in closing gaps. In fact, in a majority gaps actually widened.

56. PELL & URM DEGREES, 4YR
Bachelor’s Degrees awarded to Pell and URM students have increased over time
51%
42%
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

57. PELL DEGREES – 4YR
The percent of Bachelor’s degrees awarded to Pell students has been increasing
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

58. URM DEGREES – 4YR
The percent of Bachelor’s degrees awarded to URM students has been increasing
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

59. PELL DEGREES – 4YR
The percent of degrees awarded to Pell students has increased faster than the population of low-income high school grads
.91
.85
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

60. URM DEGREES – 4YR
The ratio of Bachelor’s degrees awarded to URM students to URM high school grads has increased, but only slightly
.68
.66
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

61. PELL & URM DEGREES – 2YR
The number of Associate’s degrees awarded to Pell and URM students has increased
69%
84%
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

62. PELL DEGREES – 2YR
The percent of Associate’s degrees awarded to Pell students has been increasing
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

63. URM DEGREES – 2YR
The percent of Associate’s degrees awarded to URM students has been increasing
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

64. PELL DEGREES – 2YR
The percent of Associate’s degrees awarded to Pell students is larger than the low-income high school grad population
1.2
1.0
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

65. URM DEGREES – 2YR
The ratio of Associate’s degrees awarded to URM students to URM high school grads has increased
.71
.65
Note: CO, TX, and NJ not included.
Source: Education Trust analysis of the Access to Success dataset.

66. Bottom Line: More Pell and URM students in; more through with degrees
Bottom Line: More Pell and URM students in; more through with degrees. But not quite the transformational results that would have come with gap closing on the success front.

67. Critical Questions: How can we get traction on gap-closing in student success? How, in particular, can we move the needle in our 2-year institutions?

68. Download this presentation and visit College Results Online. www
Download this presentation and visit College Results Online.
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