1. All-Source Analysis: Making Magic
Robert David Steele
Intelligence Coach

2. Big Change #1: Multi-Cultural Bottom-Up
TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN
COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET
SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP
INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
The new world demands that we turn our C4I paradigm on its head. We can no longer plan on unilateral warfare using secret sources that nurture top-down decision-making. Every major issue in national security today requires a bottom-up multi-cultural approach that relies almost exclusively on open sources of information-- sources that can be shared and that do not violate the integrity of any of the participants.
The Internet is the C4I backbone of the 21st Century, and that is where we should be investing at least half of our C4I dollars.
TRANSITION: Our needs for broader and more diverse open sources of information are also affected by our needs for new forms of coalition among non-traditional allies.

3. Actionable Intelligence Available Information
Big Change #2: The Really Big Gap
The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use!
INFORMATION
TIME
Actionable Intelligence
Available Information
Here is a depiction of the “information explosion” that challenges all knowledge workers, not only in intelligence, but in all occupational specialties.
We spend $30 billion a year going after a very small amount of the relevant information--that which we can steal.
We spend almost nothing on the predominant bulk of the information that is open--generally information that is not in English and not online.
TRANSITION: At the same time, we have to deal with disconnects between our emphasis on secrets and the fact that the majority of the information we need is owned and processed by others.
Open source information is more complex than secrets…

4. Threat Changes with Levels of Analysis
Big Change #3:
Threat Changes with Levels of Analysis
Over time and space
Channels & Borders
Of strategic value
Quantities & Distribution
Internally available for use
Volatility of sectors
Training & Maintenance
Mobility implications
Cohesion & Effectiveness
STRATEGIC Integrated Application
OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place
TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources
TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities
Military Sustainability
Civil Allies
Geographic Location
Military Systems One by One
Climate Manipulation
Civil Power, Transport, Communications, Finance
Military Availability
Civil Infrastructure
Geographic Terrain
Geographic Resources
Military Lethality
Military Reliability
Civil Psychology
Civil Stability
Geographic Atmosphere
Within the all-source environment, we have yet to devise adequate analytical models that ensure we consider all of the factors bearing on any given situation. This is the model of analysis that we created when we established the Marine Corps Intelligence Center (now a Command).
We found that the threat does change depending on the level of analysis--Libyan tanks being a high threat at the technical level of lethality, but low as the tactical level of reliability, medium at the operational level of availability, and low at the strategic level of sustainability.
We also found that our entire acquisition program lacks proper intelligence support in the area of strategic generalizations about civil infrastructure and geographic realities. The real world aviation day is hot and humid rather than warm; bridge loading is 30 tons or less, line of sight distance is under 900 meters in all but six countries.

5. Who is your historian? History is vital to the “framing” of a problem.
History from different national & cultural perspectives helps “map” the issues and the differences.
History matters!

6. Who is your librarian?
Spies and soldiers are not good at doing research.
Librarians, especially the “new” librarians that focus on external discovery instead of internal archiving, are essential to your success.

7. Internet Competency No longer a toy--now a serious source
“All-source” means all sources--the Internet is now a major source
Search engines vary.
Find images and maps.
Find experts and groups.
Limit to 1-hour efforts.
Need an Internet specialist on call.

8. Commercial Online Competency 100X more important than Internet
Italian intelligence chief puts Al- Qa'idah's assets at 5bn dollars BBC Monitoring, 05/16/2002, words.
Factiva.com
DIALOG
European Services
Value-added is enormous--reputable sources, editorial selection, structured storage and retrieval
Need a specialist.
CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian Subversive Groups. Xinhua News Agency, 03/20/2001, words.

9. Gray Literature Competency Limited edition, must know to ask
Pre-prints, technical reports, company telephone books, university yearbooks, “niche” references.
Generally requires human access and special knowledge of availability.
Unique and useful.

10. Primary Research Competency Knowing Who Knows, Direct Contacts
Citation Analysis is key to finding top experts across different nations.
Using the telephone (and the Internet) to reach top experts yields powerful results.

11. Citation Analysis Example DIALOG, SSCI, $1000 = Savings
DIALOG access to Social Science Citation Index
Use OSS methodology
$500 in access charges + $500 in analyst time = list of top experts on any country or topic
Then you call them...

12. Analytic Toolkit Competency Software can be a curse or a help
Digital conversion, storage, visualization, and retrieval tools
Geospatial tools
Structured analysis and detection tools
Multi-media publication and presentation tools

13. Geospatial Competency Maps & images make a difference
Commercial imagery cheaper than ignorance
Russian military maps of Third World vital
Post-processing support from private sector
Desktop tools for plotting information in time & space context

14. Analytic Tradecraft Emerging appreciation for its value
CIA University breaking new ground
Moving away from “cutting and pasting”
Moving away from hard-copy files
Focus on learning how to think, and how to structure digital data

15. Creating an OSINT Cell Central discovery, distributed exploitation
Six people can leverage global OSINT for an entire Ministry or Service or Command
This eliminates need for duplicate open source infrastructure
Also saves money
Senior All-Source Collection Manager
Internet Specialist
Commercial Online Expert
Primary Research
External Contracts
All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager

16. Analytic Tradecraft #1: Trade-offs analysis in client context
Greatest value of analysis is strategic--helping evaluate trade-offs in policy and acquisition and operational costs
Analysis must be done in client context but with external views carefully represented

17. Analytic Tradecraft #2 Nine evaluation criteria for credibility
Relevance to policy
Analytic sophistication
Unique information
Timely and concise
Facts/sources are stated
Conclusions are offered
Assumptions are stated
Options are outlined

18. Analytic Tradecraft #3 Assumptions must be specified
Separate “box” for assumptions gains consumer confidence
List variables and relationships--some are factual, others not
Obtain second views
Question assumptions

19. Analytic Tradecraft #4 Alternative outcomes must be specified
What are the alternative outcomes?
If they occur, what signposts or events might be triggers?
In choosing one outcome over others, what judgements were made?

20. Analytic Tradecraft #5 Facts, opinions, sources
Distinguish between direct & indirect sources
Be precise about sourcing of information
Understand policy sensitivities
Respect complexity
Account for deception
Label judgements

21. Analytic Tradecraft #6 Harnessing internal and external expertise
Must rise above the competition--and use external experts
Demonstrate research, scholarship, database access, ground truth, teamwork, experience
Customize intelligence for specific individuals

22. Analytic Tradecraft #7 The art of distillation and summarization
30-second lead buys you 3 minutes for summary which might get them to read it all
Focus on what’s new
Make it easy to read
A few points, clearly
Role play the audience
Analyst
Lead
Summary

23. Analytic Tradecraft #8 Deception, counterintelligence, timeliness
Account for denial & disinformation
Gaps in collection?
Odd contradictions?
Odd confirmations?
Use textbox to show reader that steps were taken to consider & defeat deception

24. The Analyst as Manager of Customer Relations
Analyst is a manager of personal relations:
top policymaker
gatekeeper staff
heads of bureaus
policy analysts
embassy counselors
visiting dignitaries
assigned liaison officers

25. The Analyst as Manager of Money for Open Sources
Analyst is a manager of money to fund:
External source discovery & purchase
External source processing/evaluation
Individual expert consultants
Ad hoc team endeavors

26. The Analyst as Manager of External Experts
Analyst is a manager of external experts:
Experts in other branches of own government
Experts in other governments & NGOs
Business sector experts
Academic experts
Media experts
Branch Chief
Analyst

27. The Analyst as Manager of Classified Collection Management
Analyst is a manager of classified capabilities:
Tasking attaches
Tasking spies
Tasking technical collection
Tasking NATO or USA or other classified assets
Suggesting new secret capabilities are needed

28. Making Magic People, Sources, Tools, Timeframes, Cultures
Analyst makes magic by mixing:
People with special skills and insights
Secret & other sources
Tools for thinking
Timeframes--taking longer views
Cultures--taking different views

29. Challenges for Analysis Forecasting, Generalizations, Two Levels Down
Analyst is sometimes the only one willing to think clearly:
about the future of the region and the world
about strategic generalizations
about details two levels down that impact on more general policies