1. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and New College, Oxford University
The World Economy
Christopher Allsopp
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and New College, Oxford University

2. Can Russia ‘thrive on chaos’?
Background
Focus on developed countires
The shape of the great recession
A large downward ‘level effect’ and slower growth
The delayed recovery
IMF: patchy and volatile
Downside risks because of lack of policy ‘space’

5. Current concerns
Oil prices
China slowdown
US rate rise
QE in Japan and EZ
World trade slowdown
Productivity slowdown

14. What about Russia?
Highly vulnerable to global slowdown, and oil prices
Energy sector accounts for about 25 % GDP, nearly half of government revenues, and about 70% of export revenues.
Large fall in exchange rate
Inflation and living standards
But good for some industries

21. Advanced countries: low inflation
US and Euro area below target inflation
US policy still not ‘normal’. Will rates rise? Fed concerns.
Worries over China, Brazil, Russia
Quantitative easing: US taper, Abenomics in Japan, China devaluation

26. Advanced countries:low productivity growth.
Worries about secular stagnation (Summers)
Savings (Bernanke)
Population growth/demographics
Income inequality
Post crisis effects
Investment
Demographics
TFP slowdown
Capital intensity/technology/price of capital goods

29. What kind of a world? Slow, sub par, growth
Low and possibly volatile commodity prices
Low inflation in advanced countries – inflation not the problem
Low real interest rates
The Zero Lower Bound and Macro prudential policies
Confidence – but why should it revive?
The policy framework

32. What has gone wrong?
The effects of the financial crisis. Still fragile
The automatic stabilisers + powerful policies – esp. in China
Austerity (Toronto 2010) and the fiscal/monetary mix.
Concentration on monetary policy. (No alternative in US: elsewhere, it is a choice)
QE, asset prices and macro prudential policies
Fiscal policy. Now is the time (IMF).
Serious lack of policy instruments and commitment to growth affecting investment and confidence.