1. DRM-SD: Risk and Disaster Defined
DRM-SD Learning Lab
Sabah Saigon Hotel, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
05-07 January 2016
Prof. K. Koshy
Centre for Global Sustainability Studies (CGSS)
Universiti Sains Malaysia
Risk related definitions clarified

2. Triple Bottom Line Model - SD
For development to be sustainable, issues of environment, society and the economy must be handled in an integrated way and the degree of healthy interaction is usually equated to the overall human well being that results; shown at the centre of this Venn dig. See also the Euler dig of SD – one inside the other.

3. Strong Sustainability Model - SD
The Euler dig of SD – one inside the other. The ‘strong sustainability model’ advocates a hierarchical relation of the three spheres. In this model the circles are one inside the other with the environment (biosphere) outside. Society is seen as a subset of the biosphere and economy is merely a subsystem of human society. Without the biosphere, the other components do not exist (Diag). While this model provides a better sense of the relationships between the three components, it is seen as an ecologist’s vision of sustainability, which grossly underestimates social and economic innovation possibilities. Such innovations may well have the potential to reduce human impacts on the environment to what might just be within the planet’s carrying capacity. But this requires a radical change in conventional business goals, models and operations.

4. Risk-Disaster: Game 1
ferocious, dog, boy, school, afraid, bite, road, father, community leaders, dog owner, chain, weak, house, strong, situation, car, risk, friends, happy, pole…
A boy goes to school passing a house where a ferocious dog is tied to a pole using a weak chain. If the dog brakes lose it could bite the boy. So the boy is very afraid. The boy’s father and some community leaders went and talked to the dog owner about the situation. They decided to use a stronger chain, to sent the boy to school with his friends, and use family car when possible. The dog hazard was addressed and the boys risk reduced and all were happy.

5. Risk-Disaster: Game 2
hazard, exposure unit, capacity, vulnerable, risk, impacts, disaster, coping, strategy, mitigation, great, minimise, adaptation, improved, happy…
When a hazard impacts a vulnerable exposure unit, it is at great risk. If this risk is minimised through improved mitigation and adaptation strategies, our coping capacity improves and we could be happy or else disaster will follow.

6. Hazard
Hazard: a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon, or human activity that may cause injury, property damage, social and economic disruption, environmental degradation or loss of life.
Hazard: Potentially damaging event…

7. Impact
Impact: the manifestation (realisation) of the destructive forces of hazards that destroy life and properties.
Impact: the manifestation of the destructive forces

8. Exposure Units
Exposure units: the sectors or groups that are impacted upon.
- Stronger the coping capacity, weaker the impact -
Exposure unit: the sectors or groups that are impacted

9. Capacity
Capacity: a combination of all the strengths and resources available within a community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk or the effects of a disaster.
Capacity: Strength and resources

10. Vulnerability
Vulnerability: the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility (inability to withstand) of a community to the impact of hazards.
(Antonym – Resilient)
Vulnerability: susceptibility to the harmful impacts of hazards

11. Risk
Risk: the probability (likely, ‘chance’) of harmful consequences, or expected losses/damage (injuries, property, livelihood, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged, deaths) resulting from interaction between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable exposure units.
Risk – the probability of harmful consequences…

12. Disaster
Disaster: “a serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the capacity of exposure units to cope using only its own resources.”
Disaster: serious disruption causing widespread loss and damage

13. Disaster is “Realised Risk”
…Risk equations =>
The realised risk

14. Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk
Risk Management 2/3
ISDR Risk Equation:
Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk
Capacity
Realised Risk is Disaster
In a general sense, the principles of risk management will come in very handy here. Risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability and to reduce risk we have to reduce both before the risk becomes a disaster.

15. Realised Risk is Disaster
Risk Management 1/3
Hazard - Mitigation = Vulnerability
Realised Risk is Disaster
In a general sense, the principles of risk management will come in very handy here. Risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability and to reduce risk we have to reduce both before the risk becomes a disaster.

16. Risk Management 3/3 Realised Risk is Disaster
Impact - Adaptation = Vulnerability
Realised Risk is Disaster
This is where both mitigation and adaptation feature.

17. Response Measures Mitigation: source ↓ & sink ↑
Adaptation: coping with consequences
Our CC response, for e.g. should involve both mitigation (dealing with the root cause of the problem) and adaptation (adjusting to the impacts).

18. An integrated approach is needed as shown.

19. …the Risk that still remains after all response measures…
Residual Risk
…the Risk that still remains after all response measures…
The realised risk

20. Adaptation x1 Frequency Climate variable (e.g. precipitation) drier
Residual risk demonstration
drier
wetter
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)

21. Adapted (autonomously)x1
Frequency
contd
drierr
wetter
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)

22. Adapted (autonomously)x2
Climate Change
Adapted (explicitly)
“Acceptable
Risk” threshold x1
Frequency
Adapted (autonomously)
contd P2 P1
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)

23. Adapted to Climate Changex2
Adapted to Climate Change
Adapted (explicitly) x1
Frequency
Adapted (autonomously)
contd P2 P1
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)

24. More on residual risk and the impact of CC on it

25. CC Adaptation – AR5, 2014
Adaptation potential, and limits

26. Two bridges are needed to close the vulnerability/risk gap
Year
Vulnerability/Risk
‘Business as usual’ Growth
Required by sustainable development
Technical solutions
Technical
bridge
Ethical
bridge
We need two bridges to close the risk gap

27. Worried about eroding coastline – a Fiji village

28. SUMMARY of the Hyogo Framework for Action : Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA)
HFA

29. HFA

30. HFA

31. HFA

32. HFA

33. HFA

34. CGSS-USM neo DRM-SD model

35. RAM

36. Thank You http://cgss.usm.my
The day may be bleak – but there are always rainbows! Thanks

37. LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS
Restaurant
making
profit
Many new customers +
Many returning customers
Appealing surroundings and menu
Good marketing strategy
Restaurant
not making
profit
Few new customers +
Few returning customers
Unappealing surroundings and menu
Poor marketing strategy
Cause - Effect
Activities
LFA
Problem Tree
Objective Tree

38. The Triple Bottom Line of SD
For development to be sustainable, issues of environment, society and the economy must be handled in an integrated way and the degree of healthy interaction is usually equated to the overall human well being that results; shown at the centre of this Venn dig.

39. HFA

40. HFA