1. Source Attribution for Southeastern US: Weight of Evidence
June 9, 2005
National RPO Meeting
Denver, CO
Pat Brewer
VISTAS
Mt. Cammerer,
Great Smoky Mtns.
National Park

2. Regional Haze Rule requires states to protect visibility
in 156 “Class I” natural parks and wilderness areas.
VISTAS is evaluating visibility and sources of
fine particle mass in the Southeastern US
I want to welcome y'all to Asheville. I am very grateful to live in WNC.
This photo is of Cold Mountain on the morning after Hurricane Ivan went through last month. This is probably as close to natural background as I expect to see in So App.
Our field trip on Wed afternoon will be to Shining Rock Wilderness Area and the beginning of the trail to Cold Mtn. We will be passing IMPROVE site for Shining Rock.
Cold Mountain, Shining Rock Wilderness Area

3. Weight of Evidence Monitoring Trends SAMI Modeling Results for 2010
Emissions Sensitivities using 2018 initial inventory for July 2001 and Jan 2002 episodes
Back Trajectory and Residence Time Analyses
Meteorological Classification – CART analyses
Receptor Modeling (MRPO-MARAMA 2003)
Regional Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ, CAMx, REMSAD)
Evidence for Role of Fire

4. There are 18 Class 1 areas within VISTAS region, IMPROVE operates monitors at 15 of the 18 Class I areas.

5. Light Extinction on 20% Haziest Days - IMPROVE 2000 - 2002
250
200 CM
Soil
150
Organics EC
Extinction (Mm-1)
100
NH4NO3
(NH4)2SO4 50
Rayleigh
On the Haziest days NH4SO4 dominates. At the VISTAS coastal sites (illustrated on right) NH4SO4 ranges from 50 to100 Mm-1. At the So App sites (illustrated on left), NH4SO4 ranges from Mm-1.
In contrast, on the haziest days,
OC contributes Mm-1
NH4NO3 contributes 5-10 Mm-1,
less from EC, soils, and coarse mass.
Cadiz, KY
Sipsey, AL
Dolly Sods, WV
Saint Marks, FL
Shenandoah, VA
Okefenokee, GA
Everglades, FL
Mammoth Cave, KY
Shining Rock, NC
Linville Gorge, NC
Swan Quarter, NC
Cape Romain, SC
Chassahowitzka, FL
James Rvier Face, VA
Great Smoky Mtns, TN

6. Light Extinction on 20% Clearest Days - IMPROVE 2000 - 200210 20 30 40 50 60 CM
Soil
Organics
Extinction (Mm-1) EC
NH4NO3
(NH4)2SO4
Rayleigh
On clearest days,
NH4SO Mm-1,
OC and NH4NO3 are 5-10 Mm-1
Cadiz, KY
Sipsey, AL
Dolly Sods, WV
Saint Marks, FL
Shenandoah, VA
Okefenokee, GA
Everglades, FL
Mammoth Cave, KY
Shining Rock, NC
Linville Gorge, NC
Swan Quarter, NC
Cape Romain, SC
Chassahowitzka, FL
James Rvier Face, VA
Great Smoky Mtns, TN

7. SAMI Final Report 2002 SO4 Fine Particle Response (%)
Annual SO4 Fine Particles Response to 10% Reduction in
SO2 Emissions from 2010 A2 strategy
SO4 Fine Particle Response (%)
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
Sipsey, AL
Cohutta, GA
Joyce Kilmer, NC
Great Smoky
Mtn, TN
Shining
Rock, NC
Gorge, NC
Linville
James River
Face, VA
Shenanhoah, VA
Otter Creek, WV
Dolly Sods,
Non-SAMI states
SAMI states
usedUrban-Regional Multiscale (URM) Model and 9 episodes

8. SO4 & its Change on July 15, 1995 for a 10% Reduction of A2 SO2 Emissions from Different Regions
SAMI
2010-OTW
Midwest
Northeast
Central
FL + MS
mg/m3
+0.3
+0.1
- 0.1
- 0.3
- 0.5
- 0.7
- 0.9
- 1.1
(Class 5 day)

9. SO4 & its Change on July 15, 1995 for a 10% Reduction of 2010-OTW SO2 Emissions from SAMI StatesKY WV VA TN
2010-OTW NC AL GA SC
+0.15
+0.05
- 0.05
- 0.15
- 0.35
- 0.45
- 0.55
mg/m3
(Class 5 day)

10. SO4 & its Change on May 27, 1995 for a 10% Reduction of 2010-OTW SO2 Emissions from SAMI StatesKY WV VA TN
2010-OTW NC AL GA SC
+0.15
+0.05
- 0.05
- 0.15
- 0.35
- 0.45
- 0.55
mg/m3
(Class 4 day)

11. VISTAS 12-km CMAQ Modeling Domain

12. SO2 Point Sources emitting > 5,000 tons per year
2002 Inventory
Annual SO2 emissions
250,000
125,000
25,000

13. 2018 Emissions Sensitivities
In 2004, initial 2002 and initial 2018 inventories modeled by Georgia Tech for July 2001 and Jan 2002 episodes.
For Southern Appalachian sites, 20% worst visibility days in summer, 20% best in winter
For coastal sites, 20% best and worst days could be in either summer or winter
Can interpret relative importance of pollutant or source sector reductions
Not all Key meteorological conditions were represented

14. Great Smoky Mtns (TN) – 2 days
Weighted B
ext
Response on 20% Haziest Days
-80.0
-60.0 CM )
SOIL -1 m EC M
-40.0 ( OC
ext
NO3 B D
-20.0
NH4*
SO4
0.0
All SO2
BCSO2
BCSO4
All Ground SO2
All Elevated SO2
Non-VISTAS SO2
VISTAS Coal Power Plant SO2
VISTAS Non Power Plant SO2
VISTAS other power plant SO2
30% Reduction from 2018 OTB

15. Elevated SO2 Emissions

16. VISTAS CPP SO2 Emissions

17. VISTAS NPP SO2 Emissions

18. Weighted Bext Response on Worst 20% days (July 01)
30% Reduction in SO2 emissions from 2018 OTB
For Coal Fired Power Plants from VISTS states
Great Smoky Mtns
-7.0
-6.0 CM
-5.0 )
SOIL -1 m
-4.0 EC M (
-3.0 OC
ext
NO3 B
-2.0 D
NH4*
-1.0
SO4
0.0
1.0 AL TN VA WV FL GA KY MS NC SC

19. in Elevated SO2 from Coal Fired Power Plants
Bext Response to 30% Reduction from 2018 OTb
in Elevated SO2 from Coal Fired Power Plants
Great Smoky Mtn.
Georgia
North Carolina
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Jul 15
Jul18
Jul 21
Jul 24
Jul 27 D B
ext
(Mm -1 )
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Jul 15
Jul18
Jul 21
Jul 24
Jul 27 D B
ext
(Mm -1 ) CM
SOIL EC OC
NO3
NH4*
SO4

20. GA & NC CPP SO2 Emissions

21. Back Trajectories for Great Smoky Mtns. National Park
(ending at 12 noon at 100 m)

22. Back Trajectories for Great Smoky Mtns. National Park

23. Average PM2.5 Components for Key Visibility Bins -
Great Smoky Mtns., TN
12.00
8.00 EC
NO3
Avg. Conc. (µg/m3) OM
SO4
4.00
For Smokies, Class I clear days to Class 5 haziest days, PM2.5 dominated by SO4, OC second most important.
0.00
Class 1
Class 2
Class 3
Class 4
Class 5
(20% clearest days)
(21-50%)
(51-80%)
(20% haziest days)
(Days ranked in bins and classes from clearest to haziest days)

24. Categorical Comparisons
Surface Characteristics: All Days ( )/5 Ex. Coeff. Categories *
*Knoxville

25. Key Visibility Bins: 20% Worst Days Great Smoky Mtns.
Bin 39 (7 days): July 18 (31.3%)
Bin 38 (11 days): July 21 (68.7%)
Surface Characteristics: All Days ( )/5 Ex. Coeff. Categories *
*Knoxville

26. Residence Time based on Back Trajectories – All Days 2000-2003
Great Smoky Mtns. National Park

27. Residence Time – 20% Worst Days 2000-2003
Great Smoky Mtns. National Park

28. Residence Time Difference Worst Days – All Sample Days 2000-2003
Great Smoky Mtns. National Park

29. Probable Source Areas for Secondary Sulfate
(work by Batelle for Midwest RPO, provided to VISTAS Jan 2003)
Composite probability is illustrated here using results from Batelle study for Midwest RPO and MARAMA. This is the probable source area for days when secondary sulfate is elevated at Shenandoah National Park.
Apologize if experts in the room would phrase the explanation differently.

30. Residence Time – 20% Worst Days 2000-2003 Shenandoah National Park

31. 2002 MANE-VU Weight of Evidence Relative RPO Contributions (to sulfate only; not including Canada yet)
Acadia Brigantine LyeBrook Shenandoah

32. Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide Path
Shenandoah, VA – 20% Worst Days
MRPO
VISTAS 2018 OTW-d

33. Percentage Reduction in 2018 (OTW-d)
Compared to Reasonable Progress Goal
Southern Appalachian Sites 0%
50%
100%
150%
DOSO
SHRO
LIGO
SHEN
GRSM
JARI
COHU
SIPS
MACA
Percent Reduction Achieved
Assumes Method IB: average of 20% worst days in with monthly RH

35. Average PM2.5 Components for Key Visibility Bins -
a) Shining Rock, NC b) Cape Romain, SC a)
4.00
8.00
12.00 EC
Avg. Conc. (µg/m3)
NO3 OM
SO4
0.00 b)
Class 1
Class 2
Class 3
Class 4
Class 5
12.00
Slightly different story for Shining Rock here in WNC where one of the haziest days in the record was highly influenced by OC. Fire influence.
Cape Romain, one of most difficult sites to catalogue. OC more comparable to SO4 on haziest days
We can look at days in each bin to better understand which met conditions most important.
8.00
Avg. Conc. (µg/m3)
4.00
0.00
Class 1
Class 2
Class 3
Class 4
Class 5
(20% clearest days)
(21-50%)
(51-80%)
(20% haziest days)

36. 2002 20% Haziest Days at Swanquarter, NC
Observations vs CMAQ 2002 Typical
Typ_36_3
Fire not repesented in model?
Model performance example for coastal site within +/-10% of reasonable progress goal.

37. 2002 20% Haziest Days at Swanquarter, NC
Reduction 2018 OTWc Typical
2002 Typ_36_3
20% worst days occur between Jan and Dec; NO3 contributes on winter days

38. Example Back Trajectory Analysis for
Day with Poor Model Performance (July 7, 2002)
Swanquarter, NC
HYSPLIT using EDAS (observations) or MM5 (model) meteorology

39. 2002 20% Haziest Days at Brigantine, NJ
Observations vs CMAQ 2002 Typical
Typ_36_3
Model performance example for non-VISTAS site > 10% below reasonable progress goal.

40. 2002 20% Haziest Days at Brigantine, NJ
Reduction 2018 OTWc Typical
20% worst days occur between Jan and Dec; mostly responses to SO4 and NO3

41. Example Back Trajectory Analysis for
Day with Poor Model Performance (July 7, 2002)
Brigantine, NJ
HYSPLIT using EDAS (observations) or MM5 (model) meteorology

42. 2002 20% Haziest Days at Everglades, FL
Observations vs CMAQ 2002 Typical
Typ_36_3

43. Julian Date 125

44. Julian Date 152

45. Example Back Trajectory Analysis for
Day with Poor Model Performance (June 7, 2002)
Everglades, FL
Julian date 158
HYSPLIT using EDAS (observations) or MM5 (model) meteorology

46. Example Back Trajectory Analysis for
Day with Poor Model Performance (Sep 14, 2002)
Everglades, FL
Julian Date 257
HYSPLIT using EDAS (observations) or
MM5 (model) meteorology

50. Percentage Reduction in 2018 (OTW-d)
Compared to Reasonable Progress Goal
Southern Coastal Sites
150%
100%
Percent Reduction Achieved
50% 0%
CHAS
SWAN
SAMA
EVER
ROMA
OKEF