1. Local Demand, Urbanization and Amazonian Metropolitan Regions Impacts on Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon
Sergio A. Castelani,
Joaquim J.M. Guilhoto,
Danilo C. Igliori
Department of Economics, FEA – University of São Paulo
- Internet: guilhotojjmg.wordpress.com
LACEA – São Paulo - November 20th to 22nd, 2014

2. Agenda Introduction The Amazon Region Methodology Productive Structure
Deforestation
Urbanization and Metropolitan Regions
Methodology
Productive Structure
Who is Responsible?
Final Comments

3. introduction

4. the amazon region

5. Brazilian States and Macro Regions

6. BRAZILIAN BIOMES AND POPULATION

7. Amazon deforestation

8. Amazon deforestation

9. Amazon deforestation
Cattle
Soybean
Sugar Cane

10. Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE
Cattle - head
Year: 1974
Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE
Visão Tridimensional
4 - 50,000
50, ,000
150, ,000
250, ,000
400, ,000
600, ,000
800, ,200,000
1,200, ,000,000
Legend

11. Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE
Cattle - head
Year: 2008
Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE
Visão Tridimensional
4 - 50,000
50, ,000
150, ,000
250, ,000
400, ,000
600, ,000
800, ,200,000
1,200, ,000,000
Legend

12. Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE
Soybeans - production
Year: 1990
Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE
Visão Tridimensional
0 - 30,000
30, ,000
80, ,000
150, ,000
250, ,000
400, ,000
700, ,100,000
1,100, ,800,000
Legend
Soybeans - tons

13. Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE
Soybeans - production
Year: 2008
Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE
Visão Tridimensional
0 - 30,000
30, ,000
80, ,000
150, ,000
250, ,000
400, ,000
700, ,100,000
1,100, ,800,000
Legend
Soybeans - tons

14. Sugarcane - production Year: 1990
Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE
Visão Tridimensional
Legend
0 - 50,000
50, ,000
100, ,000
250, ,000
500, ,000,000
1,000, ,800,000
1,800, ,000,000
3,000, ,300,000
Sugarcane - tons

15. Sugarcane - production Year: 2008
Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE
Visão Tridimensional
Legend
0 - 50,000
50, ,000
100, ,000
250, ,000
500, ,000,000
1,000, ,800,000
1,800, ,000,000
3,000, ,300,000
Sugarcane - tons

16. Amazonian Metropolitan regions
Cuiabá-Várzea Grande Urban Conglomerate
Metropolitan Region of Manaus
Macapá Metropolitan Region
Great São Luís Metropolitan Region
Metropolitan Region of Belém

17. Amzaonian Metropolitan regions

18. SOCIOECONOMIC DATA

19. DEFORESTATION & AMAZONIAN METROPOLITAN REGIONS

20. methodology

21. LEONTIEF MODEL

22. INTERREGIONAL MODELS

23. INTERREGIONAL MODELS
The interregional model – Matrix Notation

24. MULTIPLIERS AND GENERATORS
Coefficient:
Generator
Multiplier

25. IMPACT ANALYSIS

26. THE DATA

27. DATABASE

28. DATABASE
Data sources
Total output (Agriculture, Industry, Trade, Transport, Services, and Civil Construction surveys; IBGE)
Imports/Exports (Ministry of Development, Industry and External Trade)
Tax collection/Government spending (Ministry of Finance and the State Secretaries of Finance)
Household spending (Household and Household Consumption Patterns surveys, IBGE)
Payments to workers (Ministry of Labor and the IBGE Household Survey)
Value-added generated at the level of 17 industries, by state (Brazilian Regional Accounts; IBGE)
Investment (Level of the Civil Construction; IBGE)
Etc.

29. DATABASE Microregional Input-Output Table for 2004 (NEREUS at FEA-USP)
558 microregions x 55 sectors
Input-Output size 30,690 x 30,690 = 941,876,100 elements
Aggregated to 3 regions (Amazon Metropolitan Retgions, Rest of Amazon Region, Rest of Brazil), with 23 sectors in each region

30. productive structure

31. OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS

32. OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS

33. OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS

34. EMPLOYMENT GENERATION

35. EMPLOYMENT GENERATION

36. EMPLOYMENT GENERATION

37. VALUE ADDED GENERATION

38. VALUE ADDED GENERATION

39. VALUE ADDED GENERATION

40. DEFORESTATION

41. DIRECT DESTINATION OF THE REST OF AMAZON OUTPUT

42. OUTPUT OF THE REST OF AMAZON RELATED TO THE FINAL DEMAND

43. PER-CAPITA OUTPUT OF THE REST OF AMAZON RELATED TO THE FINAL DEMAND

44. DEFORESTATION WHO IS RESPONSIBLE?

45. FINAL COMMENTS
Thank You!
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