1. Scenarios for a Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society in Germany
Mark Nowakowski
Section for Energy Strategies and Scenarios
PROMITHEAS 7th International Scientific Conference
on Energy and Climate Change, NKUA, Athens, October 8th 2014

2. Germany‘s central environment agency since 1974 (1500 emp.)
Scientific support to the Federal Government
Execution of environmental laws (e.g. emission trading scheme, certification of chemicals, pharmaceuticals, pesticides)
Information of the public on environment protection issues

3. Energy and climate targets of Germany
Renewable
Energy
Efficiency
GHG
(vs. 1990)
Electricpower
Total
share
Primary energy
Energy productivity
Modernising buildings
2020
– 40 %
35%
18%
– 20%
increase to
2,1% / a
double
rate
1% -> 2%
2030
– 55 %
50%
30%
2040
– 70 %
65%
45%
2050
60%
– 50%
– %
80%
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

4. Development of Germany‘s electricity production from RES since 1990
Source: BMU

5. Germany: A Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society?-
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990
2010
UBA THGND 2050
Emissionen in Mio.t CO
2Äq
Waste
LULUCF
Agriculture
Industrial processes, solvents and other
product applications
Transport
Energy (excluding transport)
106 t CO2eq
– 95%
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

6. UBA: Three “archetypal” scenarios
“Local Energy Autarky” (2013):
Small-scale decentralized energy systems use locally available RE sources
No grid connection to outside
“Regions Network” (2010):
German regions use their RE potentials extensively
Electricity exchange throughout Germany
Only small share of power imports from neighbouring countries
“International Large Scale” (2013, under progress):
Germany‘s and Europe‘s electricity supply is based on all RE potentials in Germany, Europe and its vicinity which can readily be tapped by large-scale technology projects
High import share via a well-developed intercontinental transmission grid
“Regions Network”
(2010)
“Local Energy Autarky”
(2013)
“International Large Scale”
(2014)
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

7. UBA sceanrios are part of a solution space.

8. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society
Our central question:
Can a 100% RE System cover
Germany‘s complete electricity demand
AND the annual peak load?
Security of supply on today‘s level?
Not an economic equilibrium model,
Total electricity demand: 506,
Peak load: 81,5GW + 7,5 GW balancing power
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

9. “Regions Network” scenario (UBA, 2010)
(Download from
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society 9

10. Properties “Regions Network”
All regions in Germany make extensive use of their RE potentials
Well-developed national electricity transmission grid
Efficient energy use, storage and demand side management
Today‘s lifestyle, consumer and behaviour patterns, no technology leaps
Germany remains a highly developed industrialized country
High level supply security
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

11. RES potentials and utilization level
Technical-ecological potential (conservative estimate)
Region´s network scenario
Capacity (GW)
Output (TWh)
Photovoltaic
275
240
120
104
Wind energy onshore 60
170
Wind energy offshore 45
180
177
Hydropower
5,2 24 22
Geothermal energy
6,4 50
Waste biomass (biogas)
as required 23
23,3 11
Today: 32 GWel
Today: 35 GWel
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

12. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society
“Regions Network” 2050
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

13. Model structure “Regions Network”

14. RE feed-in and load – summer month
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

15. RE feed-in and load – winter month
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

16. RE feed-in and load – winter month
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

17. Results “Regions Network”
100% RE electricity generation is technically and ecologically feasible by 2050 without questioning Germany‘s existance as a highly developed industrialized country.
PV, wind, grid, storage are essential parts of our 100% EE power system.
Achievable with today’s best available technologies, no technology leaps
RE potentials can even supply e-mob as well as heating and hot water via heat pumps.
Supply security is ensured all year round.
Fluctuations of RE and load can be balanced out at any time
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

18. “Local Energy Autarky” scenario (UBA, 2013)
(Download from
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society 18

19. Properties “Local Energy Autarky”
Basic presumptions as in “Regions Network”
Decentralized, local supply WITHOUT connections with other regions or with outside suppliers (i.e. “energy islands”)
Simulation of different settlement structures:
rural community and town district
Each with and without trade/industry
At exemplary locations in northern and in southern Germany
Higher energy efficiency than in “Regions Network”
Higher utilisation of RES potentials than in “Regions Network”, esp. PV
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

20. Results “Local Energy Autarky”
Local energy autarky or “island solutions” is no feasible option for all Germany.
Without a transmission grid areas with low RES potentials lose out.
No sufficient RE based power supply for cities
Also, rural communities with trade/industry fail to be self-sufficient.
A transmission grid is important and beneficial in a 100% RE system.
BUT: Local energy autarky may be a promising option for low population areas with little or no transmission grids available and high RES potentials.
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

21. “International Large Scale” scenario
Source: J. Lillestam, PIK
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

22. “International Large Scale”
Meta analysis of existing studies with a
High RE electricity import share into Germany/Europe
Use of those RE potentials in Germany, Europe and its vicinity which can readily be tapped by large-scale technology projects and storage power plants („low-hanging fruit“)
A well-developed intercontinental transmission grid connects generation centers with centers of electricity consumption.
Pan-European electricity network helps to balance out fluctuating RE generation and reduces storage demand.
But: higher technical, financial and political-administrative complexity of developing cross-border infrastructure and power plants abroad

23. Conclusions from UBA scenarios
100% RES power supply is technically and ecologically feasible by 2050.
Different approaches possible
Corresponding support schemes are necessary
Well-developed electricity network appears to be beneficial.
Expansion of reserve power capacity, application of load management, development of infrastructure for transport and long-term storage of electricity are necessary prerequisites for 100% RES system
Conjoint, well-coordinated action needed in Europe
Foster general public acceptance

24. Elements of a Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society
Electricity
Agriculture
Heating
Waste
Transport
LULUCF
Industry

25. Germany 2050: A Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society-
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990
2010
UBA THGND 2050
Emissionen in Mio.t CO
2Äq
Waste
LULUCF
Agriculture
Industrial processes, solvents and other
product applications
Transport
Energy (excluding transport)
106 t CO2eq
– 95%
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

26. Power to Gas: Chemical Storage as Renewable Methane
Sector coupling through link between power grid and natural gas grid :
4 H2 + CO2 ↔ CH4 + H2O
[Specht et al, 2010, Sterner, 2009]
Generation → Electrolysis (H2) → Methanation (CH4) → Reconversion
η = x , x , x , = 33%

27. Energy flow in the scenario “UBA THGND 2050”

28. Mark Nowakowski mark.nowakowski@uba.de www.uba.de
Thank you
for your attention ! Ευχαριστώ πολύ για την
προσοχή σας .
Mark Nowakowski

29. Scenarios for a Greenhouse Gas Neutral Society in Germany
Mark Nowakowski
Section for Energy Strategies and Scenarios
PROMITHEAS 7th International Scientific Conference
on Energy and Climate Change, NKUA, Athens, October 8th 2014

30. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society
Electricity Storage in 2050 (as in “Energy Target 2050: 100% Renewable Electricity Supply“)
Can a 100% renewable electricity system satisfy total electricity and load demand at any hour of the year?
Yes! In total: generation of excess supply,
but also times of shortages
Short-term storage:
Pump storage: daily/several days range [Germany: 60 GWh capacity potential]
Load management (all sectors)
Long-term storage:
Chemical storages: weeks/months/years range
renewable hydrogen storage (η=42%)
renewable methane storage (η=35%)
Re-generation in combined cycle power plants or other use (e.g. as fuel)
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

31. Results “Regions Network”
Supply security and electricity all-season!
Positive residual load (generation deficit):
reconversion, imports, bio-methane
Power
Negative residual load (excess generation):
pump storage, electrolysis
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society

32. Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society
Results “Local
Energy Autarky”
City district in northern Germany:
Load of private houses,
50% e-mobility,
Balances after fluctuating
feed-in and storage,
Storage activity
(meteorological data 2006–2009)
Nowakowski – Scenarios for a GHG Neutral Society