1. Exploring the potential impact of FLA on national innovation systems
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on national innovation systems
Matthias Weber1, Attila Havas2, Doris Schartinger1
1 AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria;
2 Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest

2. Background and guiding question
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
Background and guiding question
Limited number of evaluations and impact analyses of forward looking activities (FLAs), some anecdotal evidence and almost complete absence of systematic meta-analysis of FLA impacts
Little systematic guidance on designing FLAs with high impact potential on innovation systems
Several reasons
high diversity of FLA methods and approaches
complexity of innovation systems
contingencies at play
What types of FLAs are suitable for addressing what types of policy problems in innovation systems, and under which types of conditions ?

3. Focus on national innovation systems
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
Focus on national innovation systems
Focus on FLAs in support of national innovation systems and their performance
What are typical problems and policy needs to be addressed by FLAs on national innovation systems?
Key activities or functions of innovation systems
Emerging and future bottlenecks or problems in the innovation systems to be addressed by FLAs
Within IS, the policy governance sub-system is the most important context for FLA, and where it is to have the most immediate impact
In order to have impact on policy needs/problems, an FLA must fit into the context of the policy governance subsystem of the IS

4. Guiding question Two types of interpretation The designer’s question
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
Guiding question
Two types of interpretation
Forward-looking: explore the likely or potential fit
Retrospective: Compare fit and actual impact
The designer’s question
What type of FLA is likely to have a good fit with different types of anticipated policy needs/problems and the conditions of different types of policy governance sub-systems, and thus likely to have a high impact ?
The evaluator’s questions
How well did the FLA fit to policy governance sub-system and the type of emerging or anticipated policy need/problem?
Did it actually have an impact on resolving that problem, and if not, why?
impact broadly understood, as both process and product, different levels of impact
we restrict ourselves to the first layer of impact, i.e. on the PGS

5. Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
Conceptual framework
Identification and specification of three levels of analysis
Different types of structural policy needs/problems in NIS
Taxonomy of policy governance sub-systems (PGS)
Taxonomy of Forward-looking activities (FLAs)
There are no ready made typologies of PGS and FLAs
Taxonomies at the level of different key dimensions
Investigate how well they “fit” to each other, assuming that a high degree of fit would enhance the impact potential

6. Types of policy needs Four main types of structural policy needs:
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
Paper title]
Types of policy needs
Four main types of structural policy needs:
Some important elements of NIS are missing;
The important elements are in place, but the relationships are underdeveloped;
The important elements are in place, but they do not perform satisfactorily;
The system works properly in structural and relational terms, but needs guidance on the research and innovation directions to take.

7. The dimensions of a PGS taxonomy
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
The dimensions of a PGS taxonomy
Policy governance sub-systems of NIS can differ along the following dimensions:
oligopolistic vs. distributed
antagonistic vs. consensual
output- vs. process-based legitimacy
systematic vs. sparse use of a differentiated set of policy preparation tools (PPTs)

8. The dimensions of a PGS taxonomy
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
The dimensions of a PGS taxonomy
The dimensions of the taxonomy are not fully independent from each other
need to check relationships across the four dimensions (“hypotheses”)
Example:
Is there a relationship between the oligopolistic/distributed character of PGS and the prevailing form of legitimacy?
Oligopolistic and corporatist governance systems with a strong hierarchical component would tend to rely on output-based legitimacy, and is rather unlikely to make use of process legitimacy (e.g. China)
Governance systems where power is executed in a distributed way tend to rely to a significant extent on process-based legitimacy (e.g. Most Western European countries)

9. The dimensions of an FLA taxonomy
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
The dimensions of an FLA taxonomy
FLAs can differ along the following dimensions:
Embedded vs. stand-alone
High vs. low level of participation
Reinforcing vs. transformative with regard to the existing NIS

10. The dimensions of an FLA taxonomy
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
The dimensions of an FLA taxonomy
The dimensions of the taxonomy are not fully independent from each other
need to check relationships across the four dimensions (“hypotheses”)
Example:
Is there a relationship between embedded/stand-alone character and the transformative/reinforcing character of an FLA?
Highly embedded FLAs are unlikely to be transformative, because of the greater visibility of stand-alone processes
Transformative FLAs can be supportive to ongoing transformations of NIS (e.g. Foresights in CEECs),...
... but there can be many contingencies preventing or delaying impacts (e.g. Hungary)

11. FLAs and PGS Key hypothesis...
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
FLAs and PGS
Key hypothesis...
The better the fit between FLA dimensions and PGS dimensions, the greater the likelihood of achieving a high impact
... broken down into a matrix of hypotheses
PGS
FLA
Oligopolistic - distributed
Antagonistic - consensual
Output – process legitimacy
Systematic – sparse PPTs
Reinforcing - transformative A1 B1 C1 D1
High – low participation A2 B2 C2 D2
Embedded – stand- alone A3 B3 C3 D3

12. Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
Two examples
Antagonistic/consensual PGS – reinforcing/transformative FLA
In an antagonistic PGS, transformative FLAs are more likely to be launched, mainly to improve the performance of other subsystems of the NIS than the PGS itself
In a consensual PGS, it is less likely that transformative FLAs will be initiated, because they would inevitably raise issues that would entail disadvantages to some of the stakeholder groups involved.
Germany: Futur pursued transformative objectives, but could not break up the prevailing consensus about delimiting research (policy) fields among dominant stakeholders.
Systematic sparse use of PPTs – embedded/stand-alone FLA
If a differentiated and rich a set of PPTs is applied systematically in a PGS, the likelihood of realizing embedded FLAs is higher. This goes hand in hand with a rather limited visibility (and impact !) of FLAs within a broad spectrum of PPTs; FLAs become invisible and integrated in other PPTs.
Sweden: embedded FLAs in a PGS where PPTs are used systematically

13. The “fit” between PGS, FLAs and policy problem
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
The “fit” between PGS, FLAs and policy problem
An additional complication
the fit between PGS and FLAs should not be seen in isolation
The type of policy problem to be tackled comes into play as well
Rather than setting up a three-dimensional “fitting matrix”, the PGS/FLA framework is applied to study a range of national cases that cover different types of policy problems in NIS
First test cases using existing evaluations:
Hungarian Foresight
2nd Swedish Foresight
(Germany Futur/BMBF Foresight)
others

14. The Swedish case: 2nd Swedish Technology FS
Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
The Swedish case: 2nd Swedish Technology FS
Wide-spread and systematic use of PPTs in the Swedish governance system
A situation where impact is rather unlikely to be high
In addition contingencies
Window of opportunity to influence Research Bill had passed
Process was perceived party-political
Wide invitation of stakeholders, but official results (FLA products) were based on panel discussions, hence limited participation
“an immensely joyful experience”, but ultimately with limited impact

15. Exploring the potential impact of FLA on NIS
Conclusions
A first step towards a framework for systematically investigating actual or potential impacts of FLAs on NIS
Initial hypotheses still need to be refined and underpinned by empirical material from past evaluations of FLA
Not all hypotheses are “interesting” and useful, pointing to a need to reconsider the dimensions
The framework will never become a guarantee for success and impact; contingencies can always come into play.
The relationships investigated are not static, but FLAs can influence and change the PGS in the course of time
Still, the framework could serve as guidance for the design of FLAs, with a view of enhancing their impact
The approach could be extended to other IS than national ones