1. TECO Focus Session on Global Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (GDPFS) WELCOME

2. Outline Future Seamless GDPFS – Ken Mylne Discussion
Update on Progress with the SWFDP – Yuki Honda

3. Future Seamless Global Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (GDPFS) TECO (CBS-16, Nov 2016 ) Ken Mylne, Chair OPAG-DPFS

4. Origin of the GDPFS
UN Gen Assembly XVI (Dec 1961) adopted Resolution 1721 “International Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space”.
WMO was requested to study measures to advance the state of atmospheric science and technology and to develop weather forecasting capabilities
WMO Cg 4 (1963) created WWW composed of GDPS, GOS -> WIGOS and GTS -> WIS operated by WMO Members for the collection, analysis and dissemination of meteorological data and processed products
On Recommendation of CBS-Ext(02), Cg 14 (2003) changed GDPS to GDPFS

5. Purpose of the GDPFS
The GDPFS provides the core operational prediction capabilities and systems of WMO (operated by Members – 191)
Nowcasting (VSRF) – 0-6h
Numerical Weather Prediction & EPS – 6h-15d
Long-Range Forecasting – Sub-seasonal to Longer Time Scales – up to 2 years
Emergency Response Activities for Nuclear and Non- Nuclear dispersion
Specialised centres – eg sand and dust-storm, tropical cyclone centres

6. WMO operational networks
191 NMHSs: satellites, land, ships, buoys, and aircraft contribute to Global Observing every day
WIGOS
Global Telecom with Regional Hubs – becoming the WMO Information System
WIS
The GDPFS: Global, Regional Specialized Met. Centres (RSMC, RCC), and National Centres
GDPFS
Service delivery
NMHSs deliver analyses, forecast and early warning services 6

7. At the heart (engine room) of the WMO operational system
From WMO Strategic Plan 7 7

8. What is the purpose of the GDPFS? …another aspect
Some parts of WMO WWW …e.g. WIS, WIGOS…are about sharing all our data so that we can all provide services
Virtually all WMO Members provide data into the system which allows relatively few to run advanced prediction systems, global or regional (NWP, seasonal, ocean models, …)
GDPFS goes the other way:-
Give back outputs from those prediction systems to WMO Members to support their provision of services in their countries

9. What is the purpose of the GDPFS? - systems, services, centres…?
So is GDPFS all about prediction systems?
Global & regional NWP & Ensembles, Seasonal forecast systems, nowcast systems, hydrological and ocean models…
Dispersion models, Space weather …
Data dissemination, Verification systems…
No!
Also about services…to WMO Members…
Provided through designated centres…

10. The GDPFS …
Is organized as a three-level system to carry out functions at global, regional and national levels
World Meteorological Centre (WMC)
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) (incl. Regional Climate Centre (RCC))
National Meteorological Centre (NMC)
Cg-17 Side Event 10

11. GDPFS Centres and Services
GDPFS designates centres (RSMCs etc) which provide data and services, and training to use them
SWFDP and RCCs cascade forecast guidance in usable form to enable Members’ NMHSs to provide services in their countries – supporting Service Delivery
…also FFGS, CIFDP – already becoming seamless
ERA RSMCs run specialised models and interpret them to provide guidance to enable Members’ NMHSs to provide services in their countries – supporting Service Delivery
RSMCs for NWP (new Manual) will provide data to enable Members’ NMHSs to provide services in their countries – supporting Service Delivery

12. The GDPFS today… 3 World Meteorological Centres (WMCs)
25 Regional Specialiazed Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) with Geographical Specialization and 16 with Activity Specialization
12 Global Prediction Centres (GPCs) for Long Range Forecasts (LRF)
5 Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and 1 RCC-Network
test footer 12 12

13. Spreading Capability to WMO Members with limited Resources through…
The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and its cascading process in coordination with OPAG PWS – See Yuki Honda’s talk to follow
Global Productions Centres for long-range forecasts and Regional Climate Centres

14. The Manual on the GDPFS (WMO-No. 485)
A single source of technical regulations for all operational data-processing and forecasting systems operated by WMO Members (Cg-16)
It includes the designation of meteorological centres, including those coordinated by CBS (e.g. RSMCs), jointly with other technical commission(s) and/or WMO Programme(s) (e.g. RCCs), as well as with other international organizations (e.g. ECMWF)
Revised 17 17

15. What is new in the New GDPFS Manual?
Clear Definition of Designation Criteria for Centres (WMC, RSMCs, GPCs)
Contribution of TCs (egRSMC for Marine)
Provision of detailed information regarding Centres implementation
Systems description and characteristics
Product metadata
Verification of products
Rolling Review of Centre Compliance (Regular Audit)
Clear Establishment of Procedures for designation
Additional WMCs possible 18

16. Some Emerging Needs influencing the GDPFS…
Impact-Based Forecasting and Risk-based Warning:
GDPFS to integrate Vulnerability and Exposure information
Trajectory-Based Forecasting for Aviation:
seamless blending of nowcasting, mesoscale and global NWP
Support to GFCS
extreme events, sub-seasonal to climate forecasting
Climate change and variability
Technology advances
doubling of Computing capacity every ~18 months
limited availability of resources

17. Towards meeting these needs, Cg17 adopted Resolution 11:
“Towards a future enhanced integrated and seamless Data-processing and forecasting system” expressed Congress decision to:
“Initiate a process for the gradual establishment of a future enhanced integrated and seamless WMO Data-processing and Forecasting System, in the light of the conclusions of the first World Weather Open Science Conference held in Montreal, Canada in August 2014, in particular that a seamless system encompasses several dimensions including timescales, multiple weather related hazards and societal impacts” 21

18. WWOSC definition of Seamless
Seamless spans over several dimensions including:
Time scales
nowcasting to days and weeks ahead, seasonal and multi-annual scales
Disciplines
Hydrology; Marine and Costal; Air Quality; Sand and Dust Storm; Natural resources and Energy sectors , Tourism, Transports, etc.
Impact
Link to Vulnerability and exposure data 23

19. Actions for addressing Resolution 11 (Cg-17)
Experts representing TCs met in Geneva, Feb and proposed a way forward:
Roadmap
White paper on the subject
EC 68 established a Steering Group on Seamless DPFS
Second meeting of Experts and some representatives of RAs was held in Geneva, 1-4 Nov 2016
Implementation Plan outline and work plan developed for approval by EC-69

20. Thank you for your attention

21. Concept of Operations: IAEA - WMO Notification and WMO provision of services
IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency
IEC: Incident Emergency <Centre
RTH: Regional Telecom Hub
RSMC: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre
GTS: (WIS): Global Telecomunication Hub
NMS: National Meteorological Service

22. EER Operations The WMO’s 8 Regional Specialized
Obenix, Russia
Montreal, Canada
Exeter, UK
Washington, DC, USA
Toulouse, France
Tokyo, Japan
Beijing, CN
Melbourne, Australia
The WMO’s 8 Regional Specialized
Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) for
Environmental Emergency Response (EER)
Vienna & Offenbach:
Backtracking only

23. Supporting ICAO: Volcanic Ash Centres